Loading...

Table of Content

    28 August 2016, Volume 28 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue

    For Selected: Toggle Thumbnails
    Study on Model Integration for Complex Emergency Decision-making
    Liu Yi, Wang Gangqiao, Jiang Zeyu, Yuan Shengcheng
    2016, 28 (8):  6-16. 
    Abstract ( 279 )   PDF (4343KB) ( 1069 )  

    Since the response of complex emergencies depends on the comprehensive prediction and evaluation, there is increasing attempts to compose multi across-domain models to find details for decision making. In this paper, a four-layer framework is proposed to support the model integration. In this framework, the universal communication between four layers respectively named as Scenario space, Task network, Model composition and Data interface is driven by three engines. With the help of ontology model of task, model and data, the system can semantically search, select and compose models. This framework has capability of supporting model integration dynamically. The results of integrated simulation case indicate that this approach can provide effective support for complex emergency decision making.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Ontology-Based Design of Decision Support Method for Emergency Management with Its Application in MERS
    Xu Yijia, Han Yaoci, He Guanxiao, Wang Mingming, Xu Wei
    2016, 28 (8):  17-24. 
    Abstract ( 227 )   PDF (3525KB) ( 871 )  

    In the area of emergency management, because of the sparse, chaotic and massive information environment, many researchers focus on how to design an effective decision-support method. In this paper, according to the ideology of ontology integration, a novel ontology-based emergency management decision-support method is proposed. Meanwhile, the specific process and evaluation method of this decision-support method are introduced. Moreover, this ontology-based emergency management decision support method is also applied in MERS in this paper. This application indicates the ontology integration ideology's practicability in emergency management decision-support method.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Ontology Modeling and Reuse of Emergency Case in Urban Disaster Scenario
    Yu Feng, Li Xiangyang, Liu Zhaoge
    2016, 28 (8):  25-36. 
    Abstract ( 246 )   PDF (1833KB) ( 1210 )  

    Aiming at the problems of ontology model used in emergency domain like unclear ontology classification and ineffective reuse, this paper proposes an emergency case ontology modeling and reuse method for urban disaster scenario. According to knowledge type and application purpose, the emergency case ontology is categorized, which achieves the independent representation of declarative knowledge and procedural knowledge of emergency case, and effective case retrieve, reuse and revise under objective constraints. The proposed method not only improves the rationality of established emergency response plan, but also simplifies the fussy processes of ontology-based reasoning. Finally, an example is given to prove the feasibility and validity of the proposed method in typhoon disaster for Z city power grid.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Two-stage Case Retrieval Method Based on Multi-dimensional Scenario Space Method
    Qian Jing, Liu Yi, Liu Cheng, Jiao Yuying
    2016, 28 (8):  37-42. 
    Abstract ( 173 )   PDF (1148KB) ( 758 )  

    In response to emergencies, learning from those previous similar cases and experiences is a relatively good decision-making method for emergency management. On the other hand, in light of the complexity of disaster cases which may contain lots of scenarios and attributes in different stages of disaster development, it's very difficult to utilize these cases for real situations without subtle processing. The application of case-based reasoning method to the study of complex emergencies is of great importance. Recent researches have proved that scenario-based reasoning is much more efficient than case-based reasoning. This paper develops case retrieval algorithms on optimized hierarchical case retrieval structure. In order to improve the accuracy and efficiency of case retrieval and decision-making process, approaches proposed in this paper are all centering on the concept of scenarios. Parts of a real case are selected to verify the effect of these algorithms.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Emergency Response Action Plan Development Based on Hierarchical Task Network Planning
    Tang Pan, Qi Chao, Wang Hongwei
    2016, 28 (8):  43-50. 
    Abstract ( 150 )   PDF (1206KB) ( 809 )  

    Emergency response action plan development is one of the most critical issues in the emergency response. The emergency response commander is required to analyze the complex situation, to choose and reconstruct the emergency domain knowledge from a number of involved agencies and to develop an efficient action plan to complete a set of event objectives. This research analyzes the emergency decision-making process responding to catastrophes such as natural disasters or extreme events. After essential factors involved in the process are defined, the decision-making problem of emergency action plan development is further defined. Then the methodology of emergency action plan development based on Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) planning is proposed. This paper further discusses the research opportunities of applying HTN planning to emergency management, dedicating to constructing a theoretical framework of the methodology of HTN-based emergency response action plan development for researchers.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Economic Compensation or Police Deployment: Optimization Model of Emergency
    Shen Yan, Zou Huawei, Liu Dehai, Li Shiming
    2016, 28 (8):  51-58. 
    Abstract ( 184 )   PDF (1255KB) ( 642 )  

    Environmental pollution mass event challenges Chinese strategies of innovational social governance and safeguard security. According to the two emergency management strategies of economic compensation and police deployment, the paper builds an optimization model of emergency management, and compares three scenarios that are economic compensation, police proper deployment and police improper deployment. The paper provides the optimization solutions for each case separately. Lastly, the paper discusses in detail the problem by numerical analysis. The results show that the advantage of economic compensation is low risk, but it can cause the serious reputation effect. The solution based only on economic compensation without resorting to governance by law goes against the long-term social stability. The advantage of police deployment is low economic cost, but it should face the larger social unstable risk. Thus, local governments need to balance the two emergency strategies according to the specific scenario.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Method Research on Scenario Construction of Critical Infrastructure ncidents and Emergency Capacity Evaluation
    Zhu Wei, Wang Jingjing, Yang Ling
    2016, 28 (8):  59-65. 
    Abstract ( 213 )   PDF (1320KB) ( 1064 )  

    Critical infrastructure is the basis for normal operation and healthy development of a city. Given the increased correlation and dependence between critical infrastructures, a disaster that happens to critical infrastructure often brings huge economic losses and serious social impact, and improving emergency response capacity of critical infrastructure has become an important prerequisite for protecting normal operation of city. With the critical infrastructure as the object of research, based on the correlation feature of critical infrastructure, this paper analyzes the characteristic of scenario construction of critical infrastructure from malleability, influence objects and duration, and presents the method of scenario construction of critical infrastructure, then puts forward an idea of emergency capacity evaluation from three dimensions of accuracy, sufficiency and timeliness. At last, this paper applies the common method to gas multi-gate station incident scene, which verifies the feasibility of this method.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Impact of Emergency Events from Internet on Real Estate Market
    Yu Changlei, Zhao Hong
    2016, 28 (8):  66-70. 
    Abstract ( 177 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 823 )  

    With the rapid development of Internet, the spread of information becomes faster and faster, and it has an important impact on social life. In this paper, an event analysis method is used to analyze the impact of emergencies from Internet on real estate market, and effective responses are put forward. In empirical analysis, the real estate market emergencies are used as an example and the empirical results show that the real estate market has a significant impact on the real estate market. The research results of this paper provide an analytical tool for the measurement and analysis of the impact of major network emergencies, and provide decision support for the government management departments and enterprises to deal with major network emergencies.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Studies on Online Public Opinion Inversion Effect
    Huang Yuan, Liu Yijun
    2016, 28 (8):  71-78. 
    Abstract ( 437 )   PDF (4633KB) ( 1618 )  

    This paper studies the phenomenon of online public opinion inversion that often occurrs in recent years, with multi-disciplinary and multi-perspective research integrated, summarizes three forms of online public opinion inversion, presents the definition of online public opinion inversion, and analyzes the causes of online public opinion inversion based on social physics. By exploring 41 events of online public opinion inversion from 2013 to 2016 through in-depth analysis of opinion tipping point, initial public opinion, turning points and final opinion, this paper concludes four types of online public opinion inversion:single center V-shaped inversion, double center N-shaped inversion, spiral S-shaped inversion and secondary center U-shaped inversion from three dimensions, namely reasons, time and effects. Structural balance theory is proposed to study the change of public opinion around inversion, and the event of "a male driver beating a female driver in Chengdu" which belongs to double center N-shaped inversion is quantitatively analyzed.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Emotional Mapping of Social Networks
    Dai Xingyun, Zhang Liu, Dai Weihui, Zhu Hua
    2016, 28 (8):  79-86. 
    Abstract ( 426 )   PDF (1828KB) ( 1565 )  

    Social network has become an important platform of information dissemination in emergency events. Those disseminations will often cause the group emotional effects, and have important impacts on social psychology and behaviors. According to the level of the user's influence and the dynamic changes of the group emotions on social networks, an intuitive emotional map may be produced and therefore brings great convenience for emergency management. Based on the analysis of emotion propagation's mechanism on social networks, this paper researches the emotional mapping computation and analysis method of those networks, through the calculation of their member's relationships, group emotional index, as well as the influence of users, and expounds the application in social sentiment analysis of emergency events.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Wenchuan Earthquake and Information Communication by Emergency Broadcasting: Comparative Analysis between Radio Report on Emergency Materials by China National Radio and Actual Information Demand during Emergency Response Process
    Zhou Ling, Su Jie, Yang Huadong
    2016, 28 (8):  87-98. 
    Abstract ( 189 )   PDF (2207KB) ( 757 )  

    Analysis of the correspondence between media information transmission and the ideal information needs during crisis can not only help regulate the behavior of media itself, but also improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the information for emergency decision-making. Choosing 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as the case and focusing on the topic of emergency material allocation, the paper makes an in-depth content analysis on the audio data named "Wenchuan Emergency Rescue" broadcast by China National Radio, which lasted 19 days with text data of over 395 million words. The research helps understand the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the information transmission by emergency broadcasting, so as to improve the crisis communication efficiency of media and the quality of emergency decision-making of government.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Modeling and Research on Social Network Information Transportation Based on SPA Model
    Deng Xiaolong, Yin Luanyu, Li Yuxiao
    2016, 28 (8):  99-105. 
    Abstract ( 218 )   PDF (1698KB) ( 674 )  

    With the fast increase of Internet and data scale in Internet, Internet is playing a more important role in information spreading. In recent years, it is reported that social network expressed is a typical complex network with scale free degree. With the increase of emergency cases happened in the world and our country, the government has realized that it is necessary to manage and control the information spreading in social network. In this paper, a new experiment platform frame based on SPA (Spreading Activation) model and social centrality is proposed to validate the information spreading speed in social network to help our administration department to hold more efficient control of social network.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Information Propagation and Intervention on Online Social Networks Using Cellular Automata
    Deng Qing, Liu Yi, Ma Yaping, Zhang Hui
    2016, 28 (8):  106-114. 
    Abstract ( 271 )   PDF (2644KB) ( 892 )  

    Online crisis happens so frequently that many researchers and experts have developed various models to explore information propagation mechanism. Existing information propagation models were mainly based on epidemiology or some features affected information propagation. However, few models considered the influence from neighbors or user's own resistance, which had influence on information propagation. These factors are discussed in this paper and they are(1) influence from neighbors, (2) user's own resistance, and (3) outside environment. The information propagation cellular automata model is developed in this paper to study information propagation and intervention mechanism based on these factors. Their impacts on information propagation and intervention are analyzed. The study is classified into two stages:information diffusion stage and information intervention stage. More attention is paid to the impact of intervention intensity and intervention time on the information propagation. Some inspirations are drawn based on analysis on the impacts of these factors on information controlling to support government online crisis response.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Study on the Network of Information Dissemination between Network Media——A Case Study of Food Safety Micro-blog Public Opinion
    Hong Xiaojuan, Jiang Nan, Hong Wei, Huang Weidong
    2016, 28 (8):  115-124. 
    Abstract ( 218 )   PDF (1509KB) ( 1173 )  

    Information on the platform of microblog disseminates primarily through social ties. Based on the relations among micro-blog media, such as forwarding, information dissemination network forms, whose structure determines the effectiveness of information dissemination. Using social network analysis, the paper explores the structure of whole network and sub-network and the factors that influence media's location and the capability of disseminating information. The study indicates that (1)the network of information dissemination between network media is sparse and scale-free. The stability of the network is affected by a small number of media, such as paper media microblog, TV media microblog; (2)the phenomenon of subgroup is exhibited in the network, and distribution of media within the subgroup is regional; (3) media's capability of disseminating information is closely related to its professionalism, authority and participation.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Optimizing Parameters of Support Vector Machine Using Harmony Search Algorithm for Emergency Classification of Terrorist Attacks
    Wang Lei, Wang Xin, Zhao Qiuhong
    2016, 28 (8):  125-132. 
    Abstract ( 344 )   PDF (1199KB) ( 1560 )  

    The classification on terrorist attacks plays an important role to ensure optimal allocation of emergency resources and reasonable implementation for emergency plan. This study proposes a model to integrate a harmony search with a support vector machine (SVM) to research classification of terrorist attacks. The support vector machine provides learning and curve fitting while harmony search optimizes support vector machine parameters. Measures in term of accuracy, precision and sensitivity are used for performance evaluation of proposed hybrid intelligence classification model. The data of global terrorism database from 2008 to 2013 in china is used for testing, and experimental comparisons indicate that HS-based SVM achieves better accuracy compared to SVM, CART and C5.0. Experimental results show that HSSVM is a feasible approach dealing with emergency classification problems, and provides warning and decision support information needed to manage emergency terrorist attacks.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Emergency-Management-Oriented Model Design and Realization in Artificial Society
    Zhang Peng, Chen Bin, Zhang Laobing, Qiu Xiaogang
    2016, 28 (8):  133-142. 
    Abstract ( 261 )   PDF (3078KB) ( 1056 )  

    Recently,artificial-society-based computational experiment has become an efficient way to study complicated social issues, such as emergency management. However, model design and realization is the key to process this task. Combined with the public health emergency, meta-models of disease and the corresponding interventions are designed, which are viewed as the core to construct the domain-specific modeling environment. Moreover, model transformation are introduced to solve the problems of model realization in emergency management, and the code generation framework along with the service components and model interfaces are also designed.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Scenarios Combination Deduction Method of Natural Disaster
    Zhu Xiaohan, Li Xiangyang, Wang Shiying
    2016, 28 (8):  143-151. 
    Abstract ( 270 )   PDF (1371KB) ( 1267 )  

    To overcome the shortcoming typical of traditional "Predict-Response" method, this paper combines the "Scenario-Response" mode into the scenario flexibility to strengthen the cognition of natural disasters from the microscopic view. First of all, we summarize the characteristics of natural disasters, give a framework of natural disaster chain scenarios combination deduction, and based on this framework, extract three main contents of combination deduction. Secondly, we give a corresponding semantics to ontology to express natural disaster chain scenarios. Finally, we design a scenario combination deduction process of natural disaster chain, explain key steps in the process, use information diffusion theory to evaluate the probability of cause scenarios, with the help of frequency ideas, get the probability of result scenarios on the condition of cause scenarios to mine combination deductive rules, and analyze a case as example.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Pedestrian Evacuation Model Research Based on SAPSO Algorithm
    Zhang Yongbin, Wang Jian, Wang Chao, Ling Weiqing
    2016, 28 (8):  152-157. 
    Abstract ( 179 )   PDF (1241KB) ( 1038 )  

    Pedestrian evacuation model is the basis of the formulation of safe and efficient evacuation plan, combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, this paper conducts the research of the pedestrian evacuation model in emergency, and through the analysis of the population characteristics in different evacuation stages, a new crowd evacuation model with dynamic parameters based on PSO and SA is proposed. Furthermore, the shortcomings of the previous model are improved, and the impact of obstacles to the evacuation route selection is fully considered, meanwhile, the differences in the location of exit are analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by a crowd evacuation simulation in a building.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Modeling the Spreading of Airborne Infectious Diseases in a City
    Mei Shan, He Hua, Zhu Yifan
    2016, 28 (8):  158-166. 
    Abstract ( 307 )   PDF (3332KB) ( 1492 )  

    Highly populated urban environment stimulates the spreading of infectious diseases, especially airborne diseases. Airborne infectious diseases transmit well between randomly encountered strangers and thus call for effective interventions. Geographical information, city partitions, traffic and transportation, individual mobility patterns, and individual behavior etc. are incorporated to model the spreading of airborne infectious diseases in a city. Multi-agent systems are adopted to conduct the simulations of disease spreading. Experimentation on influenza A (H1N1) spreading is performed, which validates the presented model. The study can help assess the influence of transmissions taking place at public transportation on the spreading of airborne infectious diseases in a city.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Epidemic Spreading and Emergency Controlling Model Based on Targeted Inoculations
    Sun Caihong, Zhang Boshu
    2016, 28 (8):  167-174. 
    Abstract ( 192 )   PDF (1291KB) ( 1081 )  

    We propose a model of spreading and control of epidemics based on multi-agent and a simulation platform by the method of multi-agent modeling and theory of complex networks. As for the given source(s) of infection, we simulate the spreading process of epidemics in the network, according to which we build an epidemic tree and epidemics-spreading network based on SIR spreading model via a large number of computational experiments. Meanwhile, we put forward a targeted inoculation strategy by using epidemic diffusion power influence. We find that our proposed inoculation strategy can identify the critical paths and points applied to different sources, their locations in the network as well as the structure of network, which will provide decision support basis for epidemics control and emergency management.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Crisis Information Release Policy and Online Public Opinion Dissemination in Emergency of Hazardous Chemicals Leakage into River:A Multi-agent-based Model
    Yu Lean, Li Ling, Dai Wei, Tang Ling
    2016, 28 (8):  175-185. 
    Abstract ( 284 )   PDF (1481KB) ( 924 )  

    This paper develops a multi-agent-based simulation model for online public opinion dissemination in emergency, to explore appropriate crisis information release policy for controlling public panic stemming from hazardous chemicals leakage accidents into rivers. In particular, two attributes of the crisis information are considered, i.e., the truthiness (true or false news) and attitude (neural, positive or negative emotion). Moreover, the proposed model covers the main agents in virtue community:the citizens, government, and media. We take two typical accidents of hazardous chemicals leakage into rivers as study cases, to test the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Tabletop Exercise Based on the Computer Simulation
    Ma Yeqin, Wang Hongwei, Qi Chao
    2016, 28 (8):  186-192. 
    Abstract ( 280 )   PDF (1243KB) ( 1102 )  

    Tabletop exercise (TTx) is a training method widely used in emergency management, providing participants with an excellent opportunity to interact with each other and understand the roles and responsibilities of others at a lower cost. A tabletop exercise based on computer simulation is an important research direction of tabletop exercise. Based on the structures of tabletop exercise, this paper discusses how to develop from tabletop exercise to computer simulation-based tabletop exercise and combs the main points during its research. It analyses the basic thoughts and structures of such an exercise, helping researchers understand it better, and assisting the design and development of tabletop exercise system based on computer simulation.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Unconventional Emergency Organizational Dynamic Reconstruction Based on Fractal——8.12 Tianjin Explosions Case Study
    Li Annan, Deng Xiuquan, Zhao Qiuhong
    2016, 28 (8):  193-206. 
    Abstract ( 243 )   PDF (2070KB) ( 851 )  

    In the field of modern emergency management, it is of important significance to establish the dynamic emergency organization system and rapid response mechanism based on the uncertainty of unconventional emergencies. Under this background, the emergency decision-makers should analyze the characteristic of organizational mechanism and the nature of invariable regularity of organization which has flexible structure under the dynamic change, explore an unconventional emergency organization dynamic model to adapt different scenarios. In this paper, from the perspective of system and drawing lessons from the thought of fractal, we introduce the fractal method in the theoretical study of the unconventional emergency organization system, and generate the emergency organizational fractal unit, which has the relationship of Demand-Supply (DS) and Delegation-to-do (DT) between emergency units as the main line. Then, we build the fractal emergency organization frame, and give the dynamic reconstruction mechanism of emergency organization in the different scenarios. As a case study of 8.12 Tianjin explosions, we analyze the reconstruction process of fractal emergency organization under the mutational scenarios, and verify the fractal emergency organization efficiency to respond to environmental change.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Effect of Collaborative Management on Enhancement Mechanism of Urban Resilience
    Zhao Dongyue, Shi Bo, Chen Yiqin, Chen Changkun, Lei Peng
    2016, 28 (8):  207-214. 
    Abstract ( 260 )   PDF (1747KB) ( 1738 )  

    To provide theoretical reference for promoting urban resilience and their ability to withstand disasters, the structural characteristics of urban resilience and mechanisms to strengthen their resilience of different collaboration management patterns are investigated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. Results indicate that for many cities, the core functions of urban resilience are absorption capacity of disasters' energy and self-healing ability, which are supported by other capacities such as redundancy, stability, adaptability and other related abilities. Collaboration management could enhance the urban resilience by improving absorption capacity of disasters' energy and recovery ability. The higher the extent of collaborative management is, the quicker the critical path is defined by disaster response department and the more reasonable the allocation of disaster relief force is, the stronger urban resilience will be.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Community Emergency Aid Based Common Consciousness Re-shaping and Elastic Community Cultivation——A Study on the Community C in City F
    Chen Wenling, Yuan Ke
    2016, 28 (8):  215-224. 
    Abstract ( 214 )   PDF (1131KB) ( 754 )  

    Through an investigation of community C in City F, this paper finds that community residents' knowledge and practice regarding emergency aid are quite insufficient mainly because there is no or little common consciousness among residents. The re-shaping of the community common consciousness and the cultivation of the elastic community are essentially important to the community emergency aid, social emergency management and the modernization of governing ability building of the state. The core of elastic community cultivation is the elastic of systematic structure and the elastic of policy system.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Trust Foundation of Reputation Mechanism:Crisis and Reconstruction
    Lei Yu
    2016, 28 (8):  225-237. 
    Abstract ( 295 )   PDF (1410KB) ( 1020 )  

    Reputation mechanism which has comparative advantages relative to the moral mechanism and legal mechanism is an important governance mechanism for the problem of moral anomie in the current society. As a result, how to create conditions for the reputation mechanism to play a role becomes very important. Through the analysis of reputation mechanism process, we find that public's trust is a foundation of reputation mechanism and this foundation could be destroyed by negative events which occurred frequently. Based on the dairy crisis and food safety institution construction in China recently, we provide evidence on the destruction of trust foundation of reputation mechanism using positive research methods, and confirm that reconstruction trust through the institution also face difficulties. This paper is the first to point out and study the problem of trust foundation of reputation mechanism, and develops the reputation mechanism theory. The implications and suggestions drawn from this study also have practical meanings.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Literature Review and Future Prospects of Relief Supply Chain for Unexpected Natural Disasters
    Fang Lei, Xia Yu, Yang Yueming, Chang Hao, Duan Yangli, Wang Ruotian
    2016, 28 (8):  238-249. 
    Abstract ( 258 )   PDF (1403KB) ( 1508 )  

    After the sudden large-scale natural disasters, an acid test for the emergency logisticscalls for people's reaction abilities to carry out disaster relief work timely and efficiently within limited time and space. How to build a comprehensive and efficient relief supply chain system is a key issue in the research field of disaster relief management, which will determine the extent of the loss and damage caused by natural disasters. Based on the summarization of the relief supply chain research status for unexpected natural disasters, this paper gives a comprehensive review and analyzes the perspectives of the concept of relief supply chain, the logistics system planning and optimization, the building and operation, and the performance evaluation. Finally, we make some prospects for the future research directions of relief supply chain. It not only offers valuable references for theoretical research and reasonable construction of the supply chain system, but also provides guidance for disaster relief work.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Social Trust Repair Strategy of Animal Epidemic Public Crisis from the Perspective of Multi-game
    Li Yanling, Su Qingsong, Wang Jun
    2016, 28 (8):  250-259. 
    Abstract ( 219 )   PDF (1193KB) ( 863 )  

    This paper draws upon the "Huangpu River's Float Pig Events" in Zhejiang and Shanghai and uses data from five investigations as sample to explore the problem of social credibility in public crisis in terms of major animal epidemic. The result shows that, on the premise of limited rationality, the government, producers and consumers tripartite game theory play an important role in social trust in public crisis in terms of major animal epidemic. The research finds that:the government, producers and consumers' behavior influence each other, and the government plays a pivotal and guiding role in public crisis events of major animal epidemic, however, customers stay in a subordinate position and they are heavily dependent on government's information to make decisions. This paper proposes a multi-party participation in crisis management and crisis conflict coordination mechanism to avoid social panic and the imbalance of market supply and demand which are caused by social incredibility.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Fire Risk Management and Application of Urban Dense Buildings under the Multi-Agent Collaborative Governance
    Pang Sulin, Fang Qiuwen, Cai Mufu
    2016, 28 (8):  260-272. 
    Abstract ( 307 )   PDF (1513KB) ( 818 )  

    This paper proposes a fire risk management method of urban dense buildings under the theory of multi-agent collaborative governance. In terms of risk identification, risk assessment and evaluation, platform construction and implementation, case studies, policy recommendations, it gives a set of multi-agent cooperative governance and fire risk management concepts of urban dense buildings. It is the first time the multi-agent of risk management of urban dense buildings is divided into three categories:The external body, the inner body and grassroots, and it analyses the vulnerability of various related subject and objects. Using the theory of multi-agent cooperative governance, Heinrich causal chain theory and LEC evaluation method, we assess the risk and the danger of the possibility on exposure and result of fire risk of urban dense buildings. And we construct a multi-agent cooperative governance platform system of fire risk management of urban dense buildings, to achieve real-time multi-agent interaction. Combined with the case of big bang case of Tianjin Binhai New Area, this paper designs the corresponding multi-agent governance programs, analyses the vulnerabilities of multi-agent risk management, accesses the fire danger level by LEC evaluation, and applies the multi-agent interaction management system as a platform. Finally, this paper presents some relevant policy recommendations of urban dense buildings' fire risk management. This study has important theoretical significance and practical value in the science of urban dense buildings' fire risk management.

    References | Related Articles | Metrics