Epidemic Spreading and Emergency Controlling Model Based on Targeted Inoculations

Abstract

Abstract:

We propose a model of spreading and control of epidemics based on multi-agent and a simulation platform by the method of multi-agent modeling and theory of complex networks. As for the given source(s) of infection, we simulate the spreading process of epidemics in the network, according to which we build an epidemic tree and epidemics-spreading network based on SIR spreading model via a large number of computational experiments. Meanwhile, we put forward a targeted inoculation strategy by using epidemic diffusion power influence. We find that our proposed inoculation strategy can identify the critical paths and points applied to different sources, their locations in the network as well as the structure of network, which will provide decision support basis for epidemics control and emergency management.

Key words: emergency management, SIR spreading model, multi-agent modeling, inoculation strategy, cascade

Sun Caihong, Zhang Boshu. Epidemic Spreading and Emergency Controlling Model Based on Targeted Inoculations[J]. , 2016, 28(8): 167-174.

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