Scenarios Combination Deduction Method of Natural Disaster

Abstract

Abstract:

To overcome the shortcoming typical of traditional "Predict-Response" method, this paper combines the "Scenario-Response" mode into the scenario flexibility to strengthen the cognition of natural disasters from the microscopic view. First of all, we summarize the characteristics of natural disasters, give a framework of natural disaster chain scenarios combination deduction, and based on this framework, extract three main contents of combination deduction. Secondly, we give a corresponding semantics to ontology to express natural disaster chain scenarios. Finally, we design a scenario combination deduction process of natural disaster chain, explain key steps in the process, use information diffusion theory to evaluate the probability of cause scenarios, with the help of frequency ideas, get the probability of result scenarios on the condition of cause scenarios to mine combination deductive rules, and analyze a case as example.

Key words: natural disaster, scenarios, combination deduction, ontology, information diffusion theory

Zhu Xiaohan, Li Xiangyang, Wang Shiying. Scenarios Combination Deduction Method of Natural Disaster[J]. , 2016, 28(8): 143-151.

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