Unconventional Emergency Organizational Dynamic Reconstruction Based on Fractal——8.12 Tianjin Explosions Case Study

Abstract

Abstract:

In the field of modern emergency management, it is of important significance to establish the dynamic emergency organization system and rapid response mechanism based on the uncertainty of unconventional emergencies. Under this background, the emergency decision-makers should analyze the characteristic of organizational mechanism and the nature of invariable regularity of organization which has flexible structure under the dynamic change, explore an unconventional emergency organization dynamic model to adapt different scenarios. In this paper, from the perspective of system and drawing lessons from the thought of fractal, we introduce the fractal method in the theoretical study of the unconventional emergency organization system, and generate the emergency organizational fractal unit, which has the relationship of Demand-Supply (DS) and Delegation-to-do (DT) between emergency units as the main line. Then, we build the fractal emergency organization frame, and give the dynamic reconstruction mechanism of emergency organization in the different scenarios. As a case study of 8.12 Tianjin explosions, we analyze the reconstruction process of fractal emergency organization under the mutational scenarios, and verify the fractal emergency organization efficiency to respond to environmental change.

Key words: fractal, emergency organization, scenario, dynamic reconfiguration

Li Annan, Deng Xiuquan, Zhao Qiuhong. Unconventional Emergency Organizational Dynamic Reconstruction Based on Fractal——8.12 Tianjin Explosions Case Study[J]. , 2016, 28(8): 193-206.

References

[1] 寇纲,李仕明,汪寿阳等.序言——突发事件应急管理[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1-4
[2] 孔静静,韩传峰.应急组织合作的结构逻辑及运行机制——以2008年汶川地震应对为例[J].公共管理学报,2013,10(4):88-101
[3] Kapucu N.Collaborative Emergency Management:Better Community Organising,Better Public Preparedness and Response[J].Disasters,2008,32(2):239-262
[4] Kapucu N.,Arslan T.,Demiroz F.Collaborative Emergency Management and National Emergency Management Network[J].Disaster Prevent Manag,2010,19(4):452-468
[5] 闪淳昌.应急管理的发展态势与思考[J].安全,2015,36(1):1-2
[6] 郝爱华,马聪媛,何群,等.美国卫生应急管理的组织结构与职责及经验借鉴[J].中国公共卫生管理,2014,30(3):403-406
[7] 胡颖廉.中国应急管理组织体系比较研究——以突发公共卫生事件为例[J].北京科技大学学报(社会科学版),2012,28(2):137-142
[8] 李湖生.国内外应急准备规划体系比较研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):5-10
[9] 闪淳昌,周玲,方曼.美国应急管理机制建设的发展过程及对我国的启示[J].中国行政管理,2010(8):100-105
[10] 宋劲松.英国基层应急管理组织模式研究[J].行政管理改革,2011,(2):76-79
[11] 蒋珩,佘廉.区域突发公共事件应急联动组织体系研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2007,20(5):595-598
[12] 陈安,陈宁.现代应急管理理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009
[13] 唐攀,周坚.非常规突发事件应急响应组织结构及运行模式[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(2):82-89
[14] 宋劲松,邓云峰.我国大地震等巨灾应急组织指挥体系建设研究[J].宏观经济研究,2011,(5):8-18
[15] 方卫国,周泓.不确定性环境中组织结构设计[J].管理科学学报,2000,3(2):9-14
[16] 倪沈冰,陈俊芳,张莉娜.分形理论在供应链管理中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(11):113-116
[17] 陈俊芳,倪沈冰.分形理论在供应链构建及运作模型中的应用[J].组合机床与自动化加工技术,2004,(10):37-38
[18] 王成恩,郎一民.动态系统结构与分形公司[J].计算机集成制造系统,1999,(1):47-50
[19] Warnecke H.J.The Fractal Company[M].Berlin:Springer,1993
[20] Kwangyeol R.,Enver Y.A Fuzzy Newsvendor Approach to Supply Chain Coordination[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,200(2):421-438
[21] Kwangyeol R.,Ilkyeong M.,Seungjin O.,et al.A Fractal Echelon Approach for Inventory Management in Supply Chain Networks[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2013,143(2):316-326
[22] Kwangyeol R.,Youngjun S.,Mooyoung J.Modeling and Specifications of Dynamic Agents in Fractal Manufacturing Systems[J].Computers in Industry,2003,52(2):161-182
[23] Moonsoo S.,Youngpoil C.,Kwangyeol R.,et al.Conflict Detection and Resolution for Goal Formation in the Fractal Manufacturing System[J].International Journal of Production Research,2006,44(3):447-465
[24] Kwangyeol R.,Enver Y.,Jungtae M.Dynamic Restructuring Process for Self-reconfiguration in the Fractal Manufacturing System[J].International Journal of Production Research,2006,44(15):3105-3129
[25] Moonsoo S.,Youngpil C.,Kwangyeol R.,et al.Goal-balancing Process for Goal Formation in the Fractal Manufacturing System[J].International Journal of Production Research,2007,45(20):4771-4791
[26] Jungtae M.,Moonsoo S.,Kyunghuy L.,et al.Manufacturing Enterprise Collaboration based on a Goal-oriented Fuzzy Trust Evaluation Model in a Virtual Enterprise[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2009,56(3):888-901
[27] Seungjin O.,Kwangyeol R.,Ilkyeong C.,et al.Collaborative Fractal-based Supply Chain Management based on a Trust Model for the Automotive Industry[J].Flexible Services&Manufacturing Journal,2010,22(3):183-213
[28] Moonsoo S.,Jungtae M.,Mooyoung J.Self-evolution Framework of Manufacturing Systems based on Fractal Organization[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2009,56(3):1029-1039
[29] Canavesio M.M.,Martinez E.Enterprise Modeling of a Project-oriented Fractal Company for SMEs Networking[J].Computers in Industry,2007,58(8):794-813
[30] Jungtae M.,Kwangyeol R.,Mooyoung J.Self-reconfigurable Software Architecture:Design and Implementation[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2006,51(1):163-173
[31] 王慧敏,陈蓉,佟金萍."科层-合作"制下的洪灾应急管理组织体系探讨——以淮河流域为例[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014,16(3):42-48
[32] 刘丹,王红卫,祁超,等.非常规突发事件应急指挥组织结构研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(7):163-170
[33] Waugh W.L.,Streib G.Collaboration and Leadership for Effective Emergency Management[J].Public Administration Review,2006,66(Supplement s1):131-140
[34] 王刚桥,刘奕,杨盼,等.面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2449-2458
[35] Bavelas A.A Mathematical Model for Group Structures[J].Human Organization,1948,7(3):16-30
[36] Leavitt H.J.Some Effects of Certain Communication Patterns on Group Performance[J].Journal of Abnormal Psychology,1951,46(1):38-50
[37] Guetzkow H.,Simon H.A.The Impact of Certain Communication Nets Upon Organization and Performance in Task-Oriented Groups[J].Management Science,1955,1(3-4):233-250
[38] 郑双忠,邓云峰,刘铁民.事故指挥系统的发展与框架分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2005,1(4):27-31
[39] Robert J.Houghton,Chris Baber,Richard McMaster,et al.Command and Control in Emergency Services Operations:A Social Network Analysis.[J].Ergonomics,2006,49(12-13):1204-1225
[40] Comfort L.K.,Kapucu N.Inter-organizational Coordination in Extreme Events:The World Trade Center attacks,September 11,2001[J].Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention&Mitigation of Natural Hazards,2006,39(2):309-327
[41] 苏陈鹏,韩传峰.非常规突发事件跨组织合作网络结构演化机理研究——以2008年桂林冰雪灾害为例[J].软科学,2014,28(8):107-111
[42] Levchuk G.M.,Levchuk Y.N.,Luo J.,et al.Normative Design of Organizations I.Mission Plann ing[J].Systems Man&Cybernetics Part A Systems&Humans IEEE Transactions on,2002,32(3):346-359
[43] Levchuk G.M.,Levchuk Y.N.,Luo J.,et al.Normative Design of Organizations.Ⅱ.Organizational Structure[J].Systems,Man and Cybernetics,Part A:Systems and Humans,IEEE Transactions on,2002,32(3):360-375
[44] Levchuk G.M.,Levchuk Y.N.,Meirina C.,et al.Normative Design of Project-based Organizations-Part Ⅲ:Modeling Congruent,Robust,and Adaptive Organizations[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics-Part A Systems and Humans,2004,34(3):337-350
[45] 范维澄,袁宏永.我国应急平台建设现状分析及对策[J].信息化建设,2006,(9):14-17
[46] 刘奕,刘艺,张辉.非常规突发事件应急管理关键科学问题与跨学科集成方法研究[J].中国应急管理,2014,85(1):10-15
[47] 王成敏,孔昭君,杨晓珂.基于需求分析的应急资源结构框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(1):44-49
[48] 王红卫,王剑,祁超,等.基于层次任务网络的应急响应决策方法及其应用[J].中国应急管理,2013,79(7):10-19
[49] 天津港爆炸事故调查报告[EB/OL].新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/yuqing/2016-02/06/c_128708029.htm
[50] 2015 Tianjin explosions[EB/OL],Wikipedia,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Tianjin_explosions.
[51] 综合报道.直击天津港"8·12"特别重大火灾爆炸事故[J].中国消防,2015(16):4-7
[52] 刘怡君,陈思佳,黄远等.重大生产安全事故的网络舆情传播分析及其政策建议——以"8·12天津港爆炸事故"为例[J].管理评论,2016,28(3):221-229