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    28 May 2018, Volume 30 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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    Possible Extensions of Input-Output Analysis
    Lawrence J. Lau
    2018, 30 (5):  3-8. 
    Abstract ( 250 )   PDF (951KB) ( 451 )  

    Input-output analysis is a valuable and useful tool for understanding the interdependence within an economy, and for economic planning and policy analysis. However, conventional input-output analysis typically assumes:(1) fixed input-output coefficients; (2) constant returns to scale; (3) the desirability of all goods; (4) given fixed infrastructure, and (5) the homogeneity of goods. While it is true that input-output coefficients are updated from time to time, endogenous changes in the input-output coefficients within a planning period can and should be taken into account. Possible extensions of input-output analysis that allow these deviations from the standard as-sumptions are proposed.

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    Research on Division of Labor of China's Domestic Value Chain from the Perspective of Global Value Chain
    Li Shantong, He Jianwu, Liu Yunzhong
    2018, 30 (5):  9-18. 
    Abstract ( 323 )   PDF (1935KB) ( 1076 )  

    By compiling an international input-output model which includes the domestic inter-provincial input-output model, this paper proposes a uniform framework of decomposition of external trade (including international export and inter-provincial export) by expanding the WWZ decomposition method of trade in value added. Based on this framework, this paper investigates the participation of domestic provinces in global value chains and domestic value chain. According to the empirical result, the paper draws the following conclusions:the regional specialization in China is characterized by "dumbbell-shaped"; the spillover effect of provincial international export is posi-tively correlated with its DVC participation; the three economic circles (Jing Jin Ji Area, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta) have significant spillover effects on the surrounding areas; andthe VS index and per capita show an "inverse U" relationship.

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    Do the Smile Curves Exist along the National Value Chains of Chinese Manufacturing Industries? A Dual Perspective of Supply and Demand Linkages
    Pan Wenqing, Li Genqiang
    2018, 30 (5):  19-28. 
    Abstract ( 259 )   PDF (1144KB) ( 1016 )  

    Based on China Input-Output Tables 2002, 2007 and 2012, this paper measures the position of Chinese manufacturing indus-tries along the output supply chains and the input demand chains and addresses the question of whether the smile curves (the relationship between the position and profitability in value added) exist for Chinese manufacturing industries. This paper finds that the output upstre-amness and input downstreamness are becoming larger during 2002-2012 for labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries and the smile curves do exist along both the output supply chains and the input demand chains for Chinese manufacturing in-dustries. Also, the smile curves show a flattening trend along the output supply chains and shift towards the right and down along the in-put demand chains from 2002 to 2012. This paper shows that it is insufficient to achieve industrial upgrading only by changing the posi-tion along the national value chains for China.

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    The Effects of Division of Labor and Technology Progress on Value Added Rates——An Analysis Based on Input-Output Model
    Zhang Hongxia, Xia Ming
    2018, 30 (5):  29-38,46. 
    Abstract ( 186 )   PDF (1023KB) ( 339 )  

    This paper discusses how division of labor and technology progress affects value added rates. First, an input-output model for analyzing value added rates is built, and used to investigate the relations between division of labor and value added rates theoretically. Then by using world input-output tables in current and previous year prices, the effects of international division and specialization are an-alyzed empirically. The main results are as follows. First, division of labor without technology progress and efficiency improvement will certainly cause decrease in value added rates. However, division of labor accompanying technology advance and efficiency increases has different effects:for the industry where division of labor originates, its value added rate does not necessarily decrease, and may increase in some occasions; for other industries, their value added rates will increase. The empirical results show that from 1996 to 2007, interna-tional divisions and specializations with efficiency improvements lead to increases in some countries' manufacture value added rates, such as the US, Japan, India and European Union. But for China, the manufacture value added rate actually decreases under interna-tional specialization. The main factor causing the decreases of value added rates in the US and Japan is price changes, and the main fac-tors for the decreases of value added rates in EU and Canada are non price factors except for international division of labor and price changes.

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    Generalized Average Propagation Length and Its Application to Global Production Chain Analysis
    Chen Quanrun
    2018, 30 (5):  39-46. 
    Abstract ( 267 )   PDF (1029KB) ( 673 )  

    The traditional Average Propagation Length (APL) measures the length of linkage between two industries. Global production chain studies, however, require investigating the length of linkage between two groups of industries. To fill this gap, we develop the so-called Generalized Average Propagation Length (GAPL). The GAPL can measure the length of linkage between any two groups of indus-tries. The traditional APL and its variants (such as the "upstreamness measure") are all special cases of the GAPL. We investigate the position of countries in the global production chain of manufacturing products by means of GAPL. We find that countries that specialize in activities of producing intermediate products are located at the upstream of the global manufacturing production chain; countries that spe-cialize in activities of producing final products are located at the downstream.

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    Production Fragmentation, Interregional Trade and CO2 Emissions:An IRIO Model Approach
    Zhao Zhongxiu, Yan Yunfeng, Pei Jiansuo
    2018, 30 (5):  47-57. 
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (1191KB) ( 378 )  

    International production fragmentation sees rapid growth, which challenges production-based pollution accounting principles. The consumption-based accounting principles receive more and more recognition. In fact, production fragmentation is even more pro-nounced at interregional level than at international level. However, studies investigating carbon emissions embodied in interregional trade are relatively lacking. One of the main constraints is the availability of data. This paper applies newly constructed inter-regional input-out-put (IRIO) tables, complemented by customs data to adjust the processing trade. By employing the IRIO model, the effects of interre-gional trade on regional CO2 emissions are studied. Moreover, we introduce an extended HOV model with environment factors, which gives prediction for the direction of regional net pollution flows. The model demonstrates that regional "net carbon flow" equals to the difference between regional production-based carbon emissions and consumption-based carbon emissions, and the production-based carbon emissions can be obtained by adding consumption-based carbon emissions and net carbon inflows. Empirically, we show that, Northern Municipalities and East Coast-developed regions-are net carbon inflow regions, meaning that these regions have more consump-tion-based pollution than production-based pollution. In contrast, Northeast and Southwest are regions that have net carbon outflows, meaning pollution intensive industries were transferred from economically developed areas to less-developed areas. Our results show that regional pollution transfers via interregional trade are sizeable, which pose uncertainties to the efforts of establishing carbon rights trading system. The theoretical HOV model could explain 75% and 89% of the facts in 2002 and 2007 respectively, which is higher than previ-ous national research, showing the trans-regional trade within a country is closer to HOV classical assumptions. The decomposition for driving forces shows that capital formation is the main cause of consumption-based emissions, which reflects China's investment-driven growth model. It implies that the impact of trans-regional trade should be taken into account when making region-specific environmental policy. We conclude by providing some policy implications and suggestions.

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    Comparison of Economic Benefits and Environment Burden of High-tech Exports in China and U.S.:A Global Value Chain Perspective
    Jiang Xuemei, Liu Yifang
    2018, 30 (5):  58-63. 
    Abstract ( 237 )   PDF (1069KB) ( 345 )  

    Based on a set of World Input-Output Tables (WIOT) in 1995 and 2008, this paper empirically measures the value added and the carbon emission embodied in the exports of electronic information goods of China and the United Stated. It is found that in the past decades, developed countries such as the United States relocated the production of "low value added and high carbon emission" raw materials into developing countries such as China, whereas reserved the production of "high value added and low carbon emission" high-end electronic components in their own countries. Through the relocations, developed countries take most of the value added in interna-tional trade of electronic goods while developing countries are responsible for most of the corresponding carbon emissions. From the aspect of global value chain, China may still remain at the low level of global value chain for electronic goods by involving the labor-intensive activities, although its scale and output has already reached the top of the world. So China still needs to take effective measures to speed up the adjustment of production structure and promote the optimization and upgrading of electronic information industry.

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    Shared Responsibility and Estimation of CO2 Emission Embodied in the China-Japan Trade
    Jin Jihong, Ju Yiyi
    2018, 30 (5):  64-75. 
    Abstract ( 185 )   PDF (1317KB) ( 332 )  

    this paper uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), Japan statistical yearbook and China energy statistical yearbook to set up the China-Japan non-competitive input-output model. When measuring the emission coefficient of goods imported through bilateral trade, this paper uses the original country's emission coefficient instead of using the importing country's as an estimate. After that, the undertakers of responsibility are distinguished according to the source of embodied emissions. It is found that the responsibility of produc-ers in China and the responsibility of consumers in Japan increased from 2002 to 2011. Emissions were transferred from Japan by impor-ting intermediate input materials with high carbon intensity from China. Policy suggestions are listed at the sector and enterprise level. Ja-pan's shared responsibility of China's emission could to some extent be performed by technology export, increasing green aid or invest-ment, and allowing Japanese enterprises in China to be included into China's domestic emission trading market system.

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    Contribution of Processing Exports and Ordinary Exports to China's Regional Economic Growth
    Duan Yuwan, Duan Xinyu, Yang Cuihong
    2018, 30 (5):  76-83. 
    Abstract ( 173 )   PDF (1007KB) ( 336 )  

    Based on Chen's input-output model capturing processing trade, this paper constructs the Interregional Input-Output Model Capturing Processing Trade. Based on it, we measure the respective contribution of processing exports and normal exports to China's re-gional economic growth. The results show that the traditional measure which fails to distinguish processing trade from other productions at regional level has overestimated the contribution of exports to the regional economic growth. At regional level, both the processing exports and ordinary exports play more significant roles in economic growth of coastal regions than in that of inland regions. Moreover, export pro-duction in coastal regions shows obvious spillover effect to inland regions. Overall, from 2002 to 2007, processing exports and the ordina-ry exports can explain 9.9% and 24.2% of China's economic growth respectively.

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    Construction and Applied Research on Energy-Environment Governance Input-output Model under New Ordinary State
    Yan Chunxiao, Song Hui, Zhang Runqing
    2018, 30 (5):  84-94. 
    Abstract ( 131 )   PDF (1035KB) ( 318 )  

    This research is enlightened by input covering output technology put forward by the famous scholar Chen Xikang and from present edited input-output table and in order to adapt economic operating characteristics under new ordinary state. Firstly, the paper connects with the data to put forward construction idea of economy-environment input-output basic expanding model which can reflect quantity of pollutant discharged in every department; secondly, the paper sets Hebei Province as an example and expands, collects and investigates the data of related quantity of pollutant output and quantity of governance and so on and puts forward and completes the con-struction of energy-environment governance input-output model by classifying department scientifically. The paper researches some basic concepts of environment governance, standards discharge, production and governance concept of pollution in the model and calculates co-efficients of entire product pollution, governing pollution and pollution discharging and pollution governance coefficient of final consump-tion and increases model computational accuracy; thirdly, making use of model situation of economy-energy-environment governance in Hebei the paper analyzes interactional related characteristics. Finally connecting with evidence the paper puts forward the procedure and research direction for drawing up China's environmental governance input-output table.

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    Input-occupancy-output Analysis of the Economic Growth Engine
    Liu Xinjian, Fang Junfeng
    2018, 30 (5):  95-100. 
    Abstract ( 221 )   PDF (1013KB) ( 325 )  

    The troika theory about economic growth is a frequently discussed topic, but it needs an integrally economic analytical model to have a correct understanding on it. Applying dynamic input-occupancy-output model, this paper gives a deep analysis to the action modes of investment and other demands in pulling economic growth. The conclusions are:first, they are not completely independent be-tween investment driving force and other demands; second, the potential growth in current year is regulated by last year economy and the current year distribution of consumption and accumulation decides the potential growth of future years; third, the current year demand structure decides the current year actual growth which is not bigger than the potential. The transformation of leading driving force is influ-enced by the economic development stage.

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    Further Research on Applications of Properties of Leontief Inverse Matrix and Ghosh Inverse Matrix
    Xu Daju, Zhang Haiyan
    2018, 30 (5):  101-111. 
    Abstract ( 699 )   PDF (1044KB) ( 971 )  

    We summarize the properties of the monetary Leontief inverse matrix, the Ghosh inverse matrix and the physical Leontief in-verse matrix, review some applications of these properties to output adjustment analysis and to price adjustment analysis, and further re-search the new applications of these properties to input multiplier in output adjustment analysis and to output multiplier in price adjust-ment analysis. The conclusions are that if the physical final output of sector is increased (decreased) and all others are not, then the in-put multiplier of sector cannot be increased (decreased), and there exists at least one sector such that its input multiplier cannot be de-creased (increased); dually, if the value-added of sector is risen (fallen) and all others are not, then the output multiplier of sector cannot be increased (decreased), and there exists at least one sector such that its output multiplier cannot be decreased (increased).

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    Trade Impact of China's Transition to the ‘New Normal’:The Construction and Application of China's DPN GEM Model
    Pei Jiansuo, Yao Shunli
    2018, 30 (5):  112-118. 
    Abstract ( 219 )   PDF (991KB) ( 407 )  

    In this paper, we use a China trade CGE model, known as DPN GEM, to study the impact of China's structural reform on trade. It demonstrates that processing trade adjustment slows down trade, which is in line with previously documented findings. Further-more, China's transition to the ‘new normal’ is also trade contractionary. The new growth model unambiguously raises household welfare with more domestic consumption. It is likely to generate a higher growth rate for real GDP as well.

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    China's Employment Structure Evolution and Motivation Decomposition:Analysis Based on Input-Occupancy-Output Model
    Li Fangyi, Wang Juan, Li Lanlan, Tang Zhipeng
    2018, 30 (5):  119-126. 
    Abstract ( 237 )   PDF (1053KB) ( 728 )  

    This paper studies evolution and motivations of employment in China in 2002-2012, by using Structural Decomposition Anal-ysis(SDA)based on input-occupancy-output technology. It reveals the trend of China's total employment and driving forces in China's different industries. The results show that China's total employment grew by 4.7% in 10 years. Employment structure changed a lot as employment transferred from agriculture to the second and third industries. Change in consumption, investment, export, import, employ-ment coefficient and technology made employment rise by 74.3%, 60.6%, 27.6%,-25.2%,-143.7% and 10.4% respectively. Con-sumption growth was the first factor of promoting employment, mainly to promote employment in labor-intensive manufacture and knowl-edge-intensive service industry. Increasing investment created more employment opportunities in construction, resource-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. International trade promoted employment in labor-intensive and technology-intensive manufacture and service industries. Although technology change decreased the total employment, especially in agriculture by employment coefficient change, that in knowledge-intensive service increased a lot due to technology improvement in intermediate use network.

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    Research on the Intermediate Consumption of the Manufacturing Industry in Yangtze River Delta during Its Insertion into the Global Value Chain
    Yuan Xiaohui, Fan Jin, Xu Xiaohuan
    2018, 30 (5):  127-136. 
    Abstract ( 179 )   PDF (1591KB) ( 386 )  

    Intermediate input is also a kind of capital, with an important role in the production process, which can't be ignored. The level of it reflects the quality and efficiency of economic growth in fact. Based on the measurement of the degree to which the manufactur-ing industry in Yangtze River Delta is inserted into the global value chain, this paper has a further study on Jiangsu manufacturing indus-try as an example, analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of the intermediate consumption of different manufacturing industries during the insertion into the global value chain, and then seeks explanations from the perspective of technological progress and structural changes. The research shows that:firstly, with respect to Zhejiang and Shanghai, Jiangsu manufacturing industry is inserted into the global value chain to a higher degree. The industries with the higher proportion of the total output value of manufacturing industry, such as communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, chemical industry, metal smelting and rolling processing industry and textile industry, are inserted into the global value chain to a higher degree; secondly, the industries with higher degree of insertion into the global value chain also have higher intermediate consumption; thirdly, compared with imported goods, the intermediate use of national products is greatly influenced by technological progress and structural change; and fourthly, although the technological progress reduces the intermediate consumption of the industries with the higher degree of insertion into the global value chain, the industrial structure upgrading enhances the nature of the intermediate products of these sectors.

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    Provincial Carbon Productivity Target Allocation Plan in China:Producer and Consumer Responsibility
    Xia Yan, Wu Jie
    2018, 30 (5):  137-147. 
    Abstract ( 161 )   PDF (3838KB) ( 343 )  

    Globalization and regional economic integration has caused the expansion of depth and breadth in industrial division. Due to the rapid development of interregional intermediate products trade and the geographical separation of production and consumption, the production and consumption-related emissions can be transferred with products trade, which means that the accounting of carbon emis-sions under different responsibilities, as well as the provincial emission reduction targets based on it (such as targets of carbon intensity and carbon productivity) will have different impact of cost-effectiveness and environmental responsibility on provinces. Based on the in-put-output method, this paper develops a multi-regional input-output model to analyze the embodied carbon in domestic and international trade in China. Furthermore, combined with the objective optimization method, this paper estimates the provincial abatement costs and adjustment of provincial emission reduction targets under different environmental responsibilities. The results indicate that the accounting under consumer responsibility can reconcile efficiency and equity, and appropriately transfer the responsibility for production emissions in less developed regions to developed regions, thus reducing the interregional carbon leakage and improving the economic competitiveness in less developed regions. In addition, the carbon productivity target emphasizes the re-planning of emission reduction target according to energy efficiency, and to further improve the energy efficiency in less developed regions. Policy makers can allocate and increase invest-ment according to energy efficiency and unit abatement cost, improving the efficiency of emissions reduction. Finally, policy recommen-dations are proposed based on our conclusions.

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    Factors Decomposition of China's Departments Labor Remuneration Based on LMDI Approach
    Li Hui
    2018, 30 (5):  148-157. 
    Abstract ( 209 )   PDF (1043KB) ( 342 )  

    Using input-output model, this paper studies the growth of China's labor compensation and its influencing factors from the in-dustry level and department level. Firstly, Gini coefficient method is used to calculate China's labor remuneration gap between different groups in order to analyze the characteristics of labor remuneration changes between the various industrial departments as well as three in-dustries. Secondly, input-output model and logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method are combined to make a factor decom-position analysis of China's industry labor compensation growth in two stages:2002-2007 and 2007-2012, with the purpose to explore the main factors affecting China's industry labor compensation growth. The results show that China's industry average labor compensation gap is within a reasonable range and has a shrinking trend in recent years. Total consumption, investment, exports and oth-er kinds of final demand are the main driving forces of various sectors' income growth; especially the second and third industry sectors income growth is increasingly relying on domestic consumption. The impact of final demand structure changes on each departments' in-come growth are not identical and there is potential for driving income growth by adjusting the department structure of the final demand.

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    Based on SDA of Water Resources Management Evaluation——A Case of Zhangye City in the Heihe Region
    Wang Miaomiao, Ma Zhong, Hui Xiangxiang
    2018, 30 (5):  158-164. 
    Abstract ( 182 )   PDF (1063KB) ( 430 )  

    Under integrated water resources management, water resources management is decomposed into 4 phases:supply manage-ment, technical water conservation, structural water-saving and social management. Based on regional input-output model, using struc-tural decomposition analysis (SDA) method, the consumption of water quantify factors is decomposed into technical factors, structural factors (intermediate demand effect) and systemic factors (final demand effect), to evaluate Zhangye City in the 2002-2012 water man-agement stage. The results show that:during the period 2002 to 2007, the main force that drives the reduction of water consumption in Zhangye City comes from the structural (intermediate demand) factors that determine water management in structural phase; during the period 2007 to 2012, systemic factors (final demand effect) play a significant role in water reduction, and the water resources manage-ment of Zhangye City at this stage transferred from the structural stage to socialized management stage by virtual water strategy adjust-ment. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method provides a simple way for evaluating water resources management stage.

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    Human Capital:Net Exporter or Net Importer?——Based on the Analysis of Employment Embodied in China's International Trade
    Wang Huijuan, Wang Xiaoxuan, Lei Shuya
    2018, 30 (5):  165-172. 
    Abstract ( 220 )   PDF (1040KB) ( 407 )  
    International trade offers the opportunity for human capital flow across national borders. China is the world's second largest trading nation and most populous nation, and its economic development benefits significant from an abundance of cheap labors. Firstly, this paper presents a new model, called input-occupancy-output model of the non-competitive imports type capturing China's processing exports with classified employment. Secondly, based on this model, this paper proposes the concept and calculation formula of employ-ment embodied in international trade. Thirdly, this paper calculates the human capital embodied in import, export and its structure in 2007.
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    A Study on the Driving Factors of Domestic Export Value-added Changes Based on Data Mining
    Xing Guanyuan, Feng Zongxian
    2018, 30 (5):  173-178. 
    Abstract ( 152 )   PDF (1534KB) ( 318 )  

    Using the data from World Input-Output Database (WIOD), based on Koopman et al (2012), Wang et al (2013) with the 7th Framework Program of the European Union (EU-7), this paper calculates the rates of changes in domestic export value-added (Va) and total Export (Vs) towards different countries during the period of 1996 to 2011. Based on the EMD method, we decompose the annu-al growth rates of Vs and Va, and find that the trend RES of Va is the IMF3 component of Vs. We find the growth rate of export value-added increases from 1996, then reaches the peak in 2004 and declines after 2004, which shows a U-shaped feature. Besides, the var-ying tendency of IMF1 and IMF2 which are components of Va are completely consistent with components of Vs. Further, based on the Gravitational Model proposed by Evenett and Keller (2002), we find that the correlation coefficient between IMF1 and dI, which is highly correlated with GDP, is 0.652; the correlation coefficient between IMF2 and Vs trade cost changes is -0.447. This suggests that the driving factors of IMF1 and IMF2 from Va are GDP and trade cost respectively. All the results provide a technologic support and deci-sion-making basis for accurately identifying the driving factors of domestic export value-added and their effects in China.

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    Measuring Net Backward Effect of Investment to Cultural Industries Based on Input-output Model——Take as Henan Province
    Wang Zhibiao
    2018, 30 (5):  179-186. 
    Abstract ( 210 )   PDF (1009KB) ( 331 )  

    It is of great significance to investigate the investment effect of cultural industries for the investment decision-making of gov-ernments as well as enterprises. First, by dint of the newly released input-output table and the Classifications of Cultural and Related In-dustries (2012) issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, an input-output table of cultural industries is constructed in terms of broad headings of cultural industries. Second, the net effect of investment to cultural industries on gross output and value added is calculated via the constructed input-output table. Results show that the two most prospect cultural sectors deserving attention of investors are the in-dustry of broadcast, film and television service and cultural and arts service. Besides, cultural service industries are far more worth the effort to invest than cultural manufacturing industries. The innovations of this paper are:first, an input-output table in terms of broad headings is constructed on the basis of the newest classification of cultural industries and input-output table; second, the net backward effect of investment to cultural industries is calculated drawing on this model.

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    Exploring the Determinants of Employment Changes from the Supply Side
    Gao Xiang, Tian Kailan, Yang Cuihong
    2018, 30 (5):  187-196. 
    Abstract ( 196 )   PDF (1029KB) ( 476 )  

    Since China has been promoting supply-side reform determinedly, it is particularly important for us to explore the determinants of employment changes from the supply side. This paper, from the supply side, decomposes the determinants of employment into techno-logical development factor, economic growth factor and economic structure factor, using Ghosh's ‘supply-driven’ input-output model and structural decomposition techniques. The results suggest that economic growth and employment growth are closely related, and the slow-down in economic growth would bring pressure on employment growth. The technological development improves labor productivity, but also increases the risk of unemployment. Meanwhile, technological development has accelerated the adjustment of economic structure. In 2002-2007, the adjustment of economic structure had a positive impact on the employment of secondary industries. In 2007-2012, this positive impact turned to the tertiary industries, which means the demand for employment in China has gradually transferred to service in-dustries with economic transition.

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    The Spatial-Temporal Evolution Pattern of Chinese Urban Residents' Consumption Structure and Its Application in Demand Pull Model
    Ren Siru, Xu Jian, Zhao Haoyang
    2018, 30 (5):  197-206. 
    Abstract ( 188 )   PDF (1283KB) ( 426 )  

    As China's economy steps into the new normal era, consumption has become a new growth area and driving force of the econ-omy. Urban residents are important consumers and the evolution of their consumption structure bears heavily on how China's industrial structure should be adjusted. Classic demand pull models of input and output only consider changes of total consumption at large in the study of impacts of final consumption. However, they assume the consumption structure remains the same as that concluded from the lat-est survey and this would lead to severe simulation bias in an economic restructuring period. This paper deeply analyzes the basic charac-teristics of the spatial and temporal variation of key consumption coefficients of urban residents. Furthermore, several influencing factors are selected to conduct a panel regression of the key consumption coefficients in accordance with consumption theories, and some factors with significant explanatory power are obtained. This paper simulates the pulling effects of consumption of urban residents in 2015, based on constructed models. Firstly, regression model is adopted to get predictive values of the key coefficients. Then, the consumption struc-ture of urban residents in 2015 is modified according the above-mentioned. Finally, this paper applies demand pull model to the modified consumption structure as a way of calculating the pulling effects of the consumption of urban residents on various industries. Compared with the measured value of total output which still uses the traditional consumption structure of 2012, the result indicates significant differences. Clearly, the application of wrong assumptions in consumption structure will markedly underestimate the pulling effect on the total output.

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    Industry Structure Adjustment Based on an Interregional Energy-Carbon Emissions-Economic Input-Output Model
    Fu Xue, Michael L. Lahr, Zhang Yaxiong, Meng Bo
    2018, 30 (5):  207-217. 
    Abstract ( 247 )   PDF (1410KB) ( 408 )  

    In term of the binding goal for China to reduce its carbon emissions by 2030 to a level at least 60% lower than that in 2005, this paper proposes that interregional industrial shifts might enable China to meet this goal. Instead of the previous national energy-related optimal input-output model, a Dorfman-Samuelson-Solow model is presented by using an energy-carbon emission-economic multiregional input-output table of China reflecting embodied carbon within products and services among various regions of China as an entire system, in a linear programming format and at given national carbon targets, with the aim of maximizing the national GDP so as to confirm the in-dexes of carbon emissions in the range of different regions and the plan of structure shifts. Under constraints for both demand-supply bal-ance and energy-use change within practical limits, the model suggests moving the energy and heavy industries out of China. When GDP grew by 6.5%, the amount and intensity of carbon emissions annually increased by 1.6% and decreased by 4.4 respectively compared with 2010. The carbon emissions share of the East Coast declined by 0.6%, while that of the Central and North Coast rose by 1% and 0. 2% respectively. The underdeveloped regions saw a rapid decline in the output share of Smelting and Pressing of Metals, for example, by 0.9% in the Central also in the North Coast, and 0.8% both in the Northwest and Southeast. The above decreased share of output would offset the increased share of real estate, finance and other service, which grew by 5.8% in the East Coast, 5.3% in the South Coast, and 5.1% in the North Municipalities. Moreover, the slow growth lays greater pressure on industry shifts. Also, adjusting the energy mix to-ward cleaner resources will alleviate some pressure to reduce the carbon emissions of heavy industry throughout China and of the energy industry in the Central. It is clear that the key to reducing carbon emissions is to advance the technology in and cooperate with less devel-oped regions.

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    Impact of China's Trade Countermeasures on the United States:A Study Based on the Non-competitive Input-occupancy-output Model
    Li Xinru, Kong Yishu, Chen Xikang, Zhu Kunfu, Tian Kailan
    2018, 30 (5):  218-224. 
    Abstract ( 240 )   PDF (985KB) ( 657 )  

    The rapid development of economic and trade relations has brought huge benefits to China and the US. However, as the new US president took office, Sino-US trade is facing severe challenges. Chinese economy and employment status may suffer substantial nega-tive impacts if the United States raises tariffs extensively, or provokes more frequent trade frictions. China should prepare itself well for the potential aggravation of trade protectionist sentiment. This paper analyzes four actionable trade countermeasures against the United States, including reducing imports of all US goods and services, cutting orders for Boeing airplanes, reducing imports of US soybeans and restricting the number of Chinese tourists to the US. These countermeasures' impacts on US economy and employment are measured u-sing the US non-competitive input-occupancy-output table in 2015. Considering the impacts and feasibilities of the four countermeasures, we recommend that Chinese trade countermeasures against the United States should focus on some key products rather than aim at all commodities.

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    Partially Closed Input-occupancy-output Model of the Real Estate with Endogenous Fixed Capital Formation
    Lu Zihan, Chen Xikang, Gao Xiang
    2018, 30 (5):  225-232. 
    Abstract ( 191 )   PDF (1046KB) ( 411 )  

    The real estate which includes real estate building, real estate service and land circulation, has already become a pillar indus-try of the national economy. Property sales consist of land cost and building value. The study shows that increase in the income of enter-prises, government and residents will lead to the increase of fixed capital investment, and then promote economic growth, which is the major approach for the real estate industries. The traditional input-output model cannot efficiently depict the approach above, in order to fully reflect the interconnections and constructs of the relation between real estate and national economy. This paper designs and creates an input-occupancy-output table of real estate, and then presents a new partially closed input-occupancy-output model with endogenous fixed capital formation. The model is applied to measure the economic pull of property sales and the results suggest that the economic pull was 13 trillion yuan in 2015, which is significantly larger than the traditional models and more realistic.

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    A Political Economy Perspective to See Why the Proportion of Value Added of Service Sectors Increases?
    Song Jingyao, Lin Chen
    2018, 30 (5):  233-238. 
    Abstract ( 294 )   PDF (1001KB) ( 373 )  

    The proportion of value added of service sectors increases rapidly in the last decade. This paper studies the relation between income distribution and the proportion of value added. This paper constructs a regression model based on structural decomposition analy-sis to analyze the impact of income distribution structure on the proportion of value added of service sectors. The results show that 61.4% of the change of the proportion of value added of service sectors income is attributed to the change of income distribution structure. The profit level of service sectors should be well controlled to promote the development of manufacture sectors.

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    Game Mechanism Research Based on Enterprise Input of Pollution Control and Dynamic Consistency of Emissions Trading Policy
    Zhang Yannan, Sun Shaorong
    2018, 30 (5):  239-248. 
    Abstract ( 195 )   PDF (1082KB) ( 800 )  

    In the paper, output of enterprises and pollution control level set by government are mainly analyzed based on Stackelberg game model under the background of emission trading market. And a governance model on the basis of controlling total emission can be constructed through the probability of illegal emission behavior punished by government and/or reported by the public. Moreover, this pa-per relocates economic benefit of enterprises and social environmental benefit of government and then comprehensively weighs the rela-tionship between pollution control input and environmental benefit. At last, results are illustrated. Firstly, credit of the government can improve the pollution control level of enterprises. Secondly, when government set a policy without tendency towards the average, the poli-cy has dynamic consistency. Thirdly, pollution control input decreases when price of emission trading, penalty or illegal emission or probability of government punishment or public reporting rise. All of the results can be regarded as a reference for the government to make policies.

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    Design of Grid-connected Renewable Energy Mechanism under Asymmetric Information
    Kong Lingcheng, Tu Gaige, Zhang Yinghui
    2018, 30 (5):  249-261. 
    Abstract ( 177 )   PDF (1183KB) ( 393 )  

    In the practice of renewable energy grid-connection, there is not only the problem of randomness in power generation output and electricity demand, but also the effect of information opacity of power grid cost on the subsidy policy. Based on the theory of revenue-sharing contract, this paper establishes a revenue-sharing contract under the scenario of asymmetric information by constructing the sha-ring coefficient as a function of the marginal cost of the grid and adjusting the partial transfer payment between the generator and the grid. A parameter variability analysis is then carried out regarding the randomness of power generation output and electricity demand as well as the marginal cost of the grid based on the theory of revealed incentive mechanism of power grid cost. Therefore, the supply chain equilib-rium through contract coordination is obtained.

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    Advance Selling Strategies for Retailers Taking into Account the Time-value of Money
    Yan Zhanghua, Liu Lei
    2018, 30 (5):  262-272. 
    Abstract ( 194 )   PDF (3127KB) ( 444 )  

    Advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption. Existing researches on advance selling mainly focus on pricing strategies while the quantification of lead-time is seldom discussed. Considering price and lead-time in ad-vance selling as variables, we establish an optimization model under the framework of Stackelberg game. By comparing results from the model with realistic cases, we find that the optimum advance selling strategies should consist of two categories:super low price with ul-tra-long lead-time and reasonable price discount with short lead-time. Further analysis on the two strategies identifies the conditions under which the profit is maximized. Finally, we use numeric examples to illustrate the relationship between the two typical strategies and to verify the conclusions drawn in this paper.

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