Management Review

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 207-217.

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Industry Structure Adjustment Based on an Interregional Energy-Carbon Emissions-Economic Input-Output Model

Fu Xue1,5, Michael L. Lahr2, Zhang Yaxiong3, Meng Bo4   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031;
    2. EJB School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA;
    3. State Information Center, Beijing 100045;
    4. Institute of Development Economies-JERRO, Chiba 261-8545, Japan;
    5. Research Center for Economics and Social Development of Central China, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031
  • Received:2016-10-12 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

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Abstract:

In term of the binding goal for China to reduce its carbon emissions by 2030 to a level at least 60% lower than that in 2005, this paper proposes that interregional industrial shifts might enable China to meet this goal. Instead of the previous national energy-related optimal input-output model, a Dorfman-Samuelson-Solow model is presented by using an energy-carbon emission-economic multiregional input-output table of China reflecting embodied carbon within products and services among various regions of China as an entire system, in a linear programming format and at given national carbon targets, with the aim of maximizing the national GDP so as to confirm the in-dexes of carbon emissions in the range of different regions and the plan of structure shifts. Under constraints for both demand-supply bal-ance and energy-use change within practical limits, the model suggests moving the energy and heavy industries out of China. When GDP grew by 6.5%, the amount and intensity of carbon emissions annually increased by 1.6% and decreased by 4.4 respectively compared with 2010. The carbon emissions share of the East Coast declined by 0.6%, while that of the Central and North Coast rose by 1% and 0. 2% respectively. The underdeveloped regions saw a rapid decline in the output share of Smelting and Pressing of Metals, for example, by 0.9% in the Central also in the North Coast, and 0.8% both in the Northwest and Southeast. The above decreased share of output would offset the increased share of real estate, finance and other service, which grew by 5.8% in the East Coast, 5.3% in the South Coast, and 5.1% in the North Municipalities. Moreover, the slow growth lays greater pressure on industry shifts. Also, adjusting the energy mix to-ward cleaner resources will alleviate some pressure to reduce the carbon emissions of heavy industry throughout China and of the energy industry in the Central. It is clear that the key to reducing carbon emissions is to advance the technology in and cooperate with less devel-oped regions.

Key words: multiregional input-output analysis, carbon emission, industry structure change