Management Review

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 187-196.

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Exploring the Determinants of Employment Changes from the Supply Side

Gao Xiang1,2,3, Tian Kailan1,2,3, Yang Cuihong1,2,3   

  1. 1. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    3. Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, CAS, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2016-09-13 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

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Abstract:

Since China has been promoting supply-side reform determinedly, it is particularly important for us to explore the determinants of employment changes from the supply side. This paper, from the supply side, decomposes the determinants of employment into techno-logical development factor, economic growth factor and economic structure factor, using Ghosh's ‘supply-driven’ input-output model and structural decomposition techniques. The results suggest that economic growth and employment growth are closely related, and the slow-down in economic growth would bring pressure on employment growth. The technological development improves labor productivity, but also increases the risk of unemployment. Meanwhile, technological development has accelerated the adjustment of economic structure. In 2002-2007, the adjustment of economic structure had a positive impact on the employment of secondary industries. In 2007-2012, this positive impact turned to the tertiary industries, which means the demand for employment in China has gradually transferred to service in-dustries with economic transition.

Key words: supply side, employment changes, Ghosh model, structural decomposition techniques