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    28 January 2018, Volume 30 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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    A Multivariate-transmission-based New Approach for Forecasting China's Price Indexes in 2018
    Luo Xiaoqiang, Bao Qin, Wei Yunjie, Yang Boyu
    2018, 30 (1):  3-13. 
    Abstract ( 457 )   PDF (1248KB) ( 1194 )  

    Accurate forecasting of price indexes would provide solid support for effective macroeconomic policy decisions. Thus, one of the most significant issues in economic policy practice is to improve the forecasting performance of price indexes. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to forecast three main price indexes: Purchase Price Index for Industrial Products (PPIRM), Producer Price Index for Industrial Products (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The proposed multivariate transmission method is based on the price transmission mechanism among the three price indexes by using the Granger causality test. According to this method, different econometric forecasting models are selected for different components of the three price indexes and the results are properly integrated. The empirical results indicate that the integrated model based on the multivariate transmission method outperforms the benchmark model in terms of both level and directional predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the method is used to forecast China's CPI, PPI and PPIRM in 2018. The results suggest that in 2018, CPI will modestly increase by 2.1 percent from 2017 with 1 percent caused by tail-raising factor, and PPI and PPIRM will increase by 3.6 percent and 4.3 percent respectively with 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent caused respectively by tail-raising factor.

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    Study on the Interaction Mechanism of Economic Growth and Inflation under the Background of Economic Financialization
    Lu Xiaolin, Guo Kun, Dong Zhi
    2018, 30 (1):  14-23. 
    Abstract ( 186 )   PDF (1567KB) ( 545 )  

    With the rapid development of fictitious economy, the financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship between economic growth and inflation. In consideration of the evolvement from the period of industrialization to economic financialization of the U.S., through the Bayesian network learning of rolling time window, we concentrate on the dynamic interaction mechanism between economic growth and inflation under the background of economic financialization. It turns out that the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, in the order of bond, stock and real estate market, indicators related to fictitious economy gradually enter into the transmission mechanism of economic growth and inflation.

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    Evaluating Chinese Systemic Important Financial Institutions and Some Policy Implications
    Zhang Tianding, Zhang Yu
    2018, 30 (1):  24-35. 
    Abstract ( 261 )   PDF (1444KB) ( 531 )  

    This paper introduces a Component Expected Shortfall method and uses the daily transaction data to identify the China's domestic Systemic Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) in the banking, securities, insurances and trust sectors, and then applies the CoVaR method to test their robustness. The research results show that the SIFIs ranking is relatively stable over time and concentrated in a small number of institutions. Thus, policy-makers can focus on the SIFIs, and policies needn't change frequently. A comparative analysis of the CES contributions by different financial sectors shows that the banking sector dominates in systemic importance identification, which is followed by the insurance sector and the securities sector. This paper also proposes an approach to allocate the SIFIs into three categories based on their CES contributions and the robustness test shows that this classification is reasonable and practical. Finally, this paper applies the out-of-sample analysis and compares the results with in-sample analysis. The forecast provides some new ideas and policies for both researchers and policy-makers.

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    The Impact of Gain Limits on IPO Underpricing
    Zhang Weidong, Su Xin, Chen Hui, Tang Qiming, Yang Xue
    2018, 30 (1):  36-45,135. 
    Abstract ( 233 )   PDF (1232KB) ( 817 )  

    This paper aims to study the impact of stock gain limits on IPO underpricing in China. The empirical test shows that gain limits on the first day of the newly issued stocks would strengthen IPO underpricing. Furthermore, market sentiment has an effect on IPO underpricing. More specifically, high market sentiment could mitigate IPO underpricing when there are not gain limits on the first day. Otherwise, high market sentiment could enhance IPO underpricing and the IPO underpricing rate may be more irrelevant to firms' fundamental information.

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    Research on the Green Growth Development Mechanism of Port-city: Based on Dual Mechanism of Co-evolutionary Growth and Resource Constraint
    Zhao Yuzhe, Zhou Jingmiao, Zhong Yiwen, Chi Guotai
    2018, 30 (1):  46-59. 
    Abstract ( 161 )   PDF (2661KB) ( 408 )  

    A clear green growth development mechanism of port-city can provide "reference" for local government to promote green transformation of port-city. The paper develops a green growth development mechanism of port-city which contains dual mechanism of co-evolutionary growth and resource constraint from the comprehensive perspective of local government. Subsequently, a nonlinear optimal control model is established to quantitatively describe the green growth process that shows how subjective and objective control factors have effect on natural capital and physical capital to maximize the economic benefits of port-city. By analyzing the case of the port-city of Tangshan, the results show that a promising future for green growth of port-city lies in the "balance" between port-city' GDP and port's cargo-handling capacity under the mechanism of co-evolutionary growth, and satisfying the basic conditions for port-city coastal resources is the necessary prerequisite for green growth of a port-city.

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    The Influence of Social Capital on Enterprise Performance: Based on the Economic Transition Stage of China
    Wan Jianxiang, Zhong Yiting
    2018, 30 (1):  60-66. 
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (1114KB) ( 486 )  

    The influence of social capital on enterprise performance may be different at different stage of economic transformation. This paper analyzes the influence of social capital on enterprise performance from the perspective of China's economic transition. Economic transformation is made up of system transformation and structure transformation. This paper uses public financial data of 247 Chinese listed companies to make an empirical analysis and the result shows:in system transformation, the system social capital promotes the power of market, but hinders the economic performance, and market social capital improves the economic performance, but has little influence on market power; in structure transformation, the social capital between government and enterprises hinders the development of traditional industries and promotes the development of emerging industries, while other social capital promotes both the traditional industries and emerging industries.

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    Continuous Time IS-LM Model Stability and Simulation
    Wang Xiangbing
    2018, 30 (1):  67-77,153. 
    Abstract ( 317 )   PDF (1433KB) ( 461 )  

    Continuous time IS-LM model is built under standard assumptions of modern economics, asymptotic stability, oscillation conditions and the analytical solution of IS-LM model system are revealed based on continuous time IS-LM model, and the topological characteristics of its equilibrium are analyzed. The theoretical analysis results are verified and the polymorphism of economy system dynamic evolution is intuitively shown by dynamic simulation. The research shows that continuous time IS-LM dynamic system has three types of equilibrium:stable focus, unstable focus and center; system equilibrium has three types:stable focus equilibrium, unstable focus equilibrium and center equilibrium under the condition of periodic oscillation; continuous time IS-LM dynamic system has four types of equilibrium:stable nodes, unstable node, saddle point and star node; system equilibrium has four types equilibrium:stable equilibrium, unstable equilibrium, saddle point equilibrium under the condition of nonperiodic oscillation.

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    Perceptions of Organizational Politics and Employee Performance: A Perspective of Ego Depletion Theory
    Zhang Yajun, Zhang Junwei, Cui Ligang, Liu Shan
    2018, 30 (1):  78-88. 
    Abstract ( 358 )   PDF (1202KB) ( 796 )  

    Previous researches mainly draw upon social exchange theory and job stress to explain mediating mechanisms in perceptions of organizational politics (POP) literature, with little attention to exploring how POP influences its outcomes via ego depletion. Therefore, this study examines the mediating role of resource depletion in POP-employee performance linkage from the perspective of ego depletion theory. Furthermore, we test the moderating role of employee political skill in the relationship between POP and resource depletion. We examine our proposed hypotheses with matched data collected from 290 employees and their direct supervisors. The results reveal that resource depletion mediates the relationship between POP and employee task performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Moreover, the results of moderated mediation analyses show that political skill moderates the mediating effect of resource depletion on the relationship between POP and employee task performance and OCB. This mediating effect is stronger when employee political skill is low than when employee political skill is high.

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    Labor-management Partnership Practices and Labor Conflict: Mechanism and Contingency
    Wang Decai
    2018, 30 (1):  89-97. 
    Abstract ( 245 )   PDF (1154KB) ( 510 )  

    This study introduces job embeddedness as a mediating role between labor-management partnership practices and labor-management conflicts, and we examine independent self-construal as a moderator in this relationship. We conduct a questionnaire survey to 838 valid employees in 225 companies mainly located in Jiangsu, Shandong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The results show that (1) labor-management partnership practices have negative effects on labor-management conflicts and positive effects on job embeddedness and job embeddedness plays a partially mediating role between them; (2) independent self-construal moderates the relationship between labor-management partnership practices and labor-management conflicts. These conclusions indicate that we can better explain how labor-management partnership practices affect labor-management conflicts by taking job embeddedness and independent self-construal into consideration. Our empirical results provide important implication for the development and application of labor-management partnership practices.

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    Academic Independent Directors and the Performance of China's Listed POEs——“Supervision” and “Resource”
    Li Li, Lv Chen, Yu Jiayi
    2018, 30 (1):  98-117. 
    Abstract ( 353 )   PDF (1331KB) ( 675 )  

    In this paper, by applying two separate theories, i.e. Agency Cost Theory and Resource Dependent Theory, we empirically test the influence of hiring academic independent directors (AIDs) on the performance of China's listed private-owned enterprises (POEs). Results show that hiring AIDs can significantly raise POEs' performance, and both "supervision" and "resource" are viable explanations. Further study shows that AIDs' knowledge and expertise have a significant effect on their "supervising" ability, and that their advisory ability, intangible reputational resources and tangible social resources can positively improve the performance of POEs. However, our empirical results also show that AIDs with too many part-time jobs or holding administrative positions can effectively supervise the behavior of the company though they do bring significant resources to the POE. The contributions of this paper are as follows:not only does our study shed light on the mechanism of hiring AIDs on POE performance, but we also provide reference for both POEs and the government on AIDs selection and independent director regulations.

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    An Evolution Game Analysis of the Opportunism Behaviors in Enterprise Cooperation and the Government Regulation under the Strategy of One Belt and One Road
    Song Biao, Xu Shasha, Ding Qingyang
    2018, 30 (1):  118-126. 
    Abstract ( 226 )   PDF (1358KB) ( 544 )  

    Under the strategy of "One Belt and One Road", the business cooperation is a complicated systematic project and the strategic choice of enterprises shows a clustering feature across the strategic ecosphere, where the stability of the cooperation between enterprises become an important factor that affects the whole strategic goal. An important feature that many projects have under the One Belt and One Road strategy is that both the cooperation with local civil/commercial subjects and the more involvement of local government are required. Existing researches focus on the overview and summary based on exploratory experience, lacking in-depth theoretical analysis that reveals enterprises' strategic choice in the process of cluster evolution of cooperation. Using evolutionary game theory, this paper analyzes the enterprise cooperation and opportunistic behavior in the process of government regulation. The research results show that under the condition of rational economic man hypothesis, enterprises and local governments will adopt opportunism behavior in the process of enterprise cooperation. The governments should set special regulatory bodies, which should adopt the strategy of dynamic support or penalties to promote the stable development of the regional economy.

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    Regional Advantage Acquisition, Internal Resources Lock-in and Relocating Headquarters' Location Choice: An Empirical Study with Chinese Listed Companies
    Wu Bo, Hao Yunhong
    2018, 30 (1):  127-135. 
    Abstract ( 233 )   PDF (1163KB) ( 470 )  

    Focusing on the question of headquarters' multi-direction relocation and based on the pulling view of agglomeration advantage, this paper reveals the impact of internal resource span, which means the distance of the internal resource position and the alternative region, on the relocating headquarters' location choice. With the data of Chinese listed companies, our empirical study indicates that internal resource span has decisive and direct influence on the relocating headquarters' location choice, which is the locked-in view of internal resources. Three conclusions are revealed. First, in accordance with the pulling view of agglomeration advantage, Chinese listed companies prefer relocating their headquarters to the regions with more headquarters agglomerating advantage span. Second, Chinese listed companies prefer relocating their headquarters to the regions with less internal resource span, which has decisive influence on region choice in comparison with headquarters agglomeration span. Third, different types of internal resource span have different influences for different types of companies. Thus, this paper reveals the core influence of internal resource span in firm level on the region choice of headquarters relocation, which promote the researches on the headquarters relocation, especially on the question of headquarters' multi-direction relocation.

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    The Impact of Network Heterophilous Alliance on the Network Position Transition of Poorly Embedded Firms: The Moderating Roles of Partners' Network Position and Environmental Hostility
    Chen Zusheng, Ye Jiangfeng, Lin Ming
    2018, 30 (1):  136-143. 
    Abstract ( 224 )   PDF (1117KB) ( 701 )  

    Network position has increasingly been recognized as the critical sources of competitive advantage of the firms. How to overcome the network structural trap has important practical value for poorly embedded firms. In this study, we examine the impact of network heterophilous alliance on the position growth of poorly embedded firm. Moreover, based on the imprinting theory, we explore the moderating roles of partner's network position and environmental hostility in the relationship between network heterophilous alliance and the position growth of poorly embedded firms. To test our arguments, we use alliance data from firms in Chinese information industry and adopt system GMM model analysis. The study finds that:(1) Network heterophilous alliance is positively related to the position growth of poorly embedded firms; (2) Partners' network position moderates positively the relationship between network heterophilous alliance and the position growth of poorly embedded firms; (3) Environmental hostility moderates negatively the relationship between network heterophilous alliance and the position growth of poorly embedded firms.

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    A Comparative Study into the Impact of Initial and Follow-on Online Comments on Sales
    Shi Wenhua, Wang Lu, Sheng Na, Cai Jialong
    2018, 30 (1):  144-153. 
    Abstract ( 349 )   PDF (1132KB) ( 1031 )  

    As online comments have been more and more taken seriously in recent years, major online shopping platforms begin to roll out the function of follow-on comments. To compare the effects of initial online comments and follow-on comments on the merchandise sale volume, a return equation model based on the real data is constructed to test the hypotheses in which the emotional tendencies, the quantity and the length of online initial comments and additional comments are considered as independent variables, and the merchandise sales are considered as dependent variable. The conclusions are as follows:the sales are significantly positively affected by the emotional tendencies of initial online comments and follow-on comments and the quantity of online initial comments. Also the emotional tendencies of online additional comments have a greater impact on sales compared to initial comments.

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    How do Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Influence Accrual Mispricing
    Luo Le, Li Chaofan, Wang Shengnian
    2018, 30 (1):  154-165. 
    Abstract ( 262 )   PDF (1234KB) ( 644 )  

    Based on the companies listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period from 2007 to 2015, this paper explores the causal effect of analysts' cash flow forecasts on accrual mispricing. The empirical evidence indicates that earnings and cash flow forecast firms have less accrual mispricing compared to earnings forecast firms; analyst cash flow forecasts compete with the quality of accounting disclosure; the coverage of local analysts facilitates the cash flow forecasts' mitigation effect towards accrual mispricing. These findings suggest that the analysts' cash flow forecasts primarily alleviate accruals mispricing through monitoring effects.

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    Government Regulation, Audit Partner Tenure Management and Audit Quality
    Wu Weirong, Li Jingjing
    2018, 30 (1):  166-176. 
    Abstract ( 260 )   PDF (1132KB) ( 394 )  

    Focusing on the voluntary rotation issue, this paper studies the effect of audit partner tenure management and incoming partners upon audit quality, using the sample of 2003-2015 China listed companies. We find that audit partner tenure management reduces audit quality and in such circumstance, incoming partners also reduce audit quality. Government regulation plays the function of adjustment in the process of audit partner tenure management and incoming partners influencing audit quality. In a word, these conclusions are helpful and significant in improving audit partner rotation mechanism and enhancing the government regulation over audit industry.

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    Trade-Old-for-Remanufactured Program: Strategy Selection, Pricing and Coordination
    Han Xiaohua, Zhou Weilang, Shen Ying, Hou Rui
    2018, 30 (1):  177-194. 
    Abstract ( 269 )   PDF (2033KB) ( 436 )  

    In this paper, we investigate the conditions under which a firm should offer a Trade Old for Remanufactured Program (TOR) and how to price and coordinate it. We show that (1) Firms should offer TOR programs only when remanufactured product receptivity and product durability satisfy a certain condition; (2) Improving consumers' environment consciousness, reducing the product durability, enhancing the remanufacturing technology, and implementing government subsidies can promote consumer participations in TOR programs and improve the profits of manufacturers and retailers; (3)The remanufacturing capability, "second-hand" prices and government subsidies plays significant roles in pricing decisions. Finally, to mitigate double marginalization, we apply the revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the TOR closed-loop supply chain and derive the range that the manufacturer and the retailer are willing to cooperate.

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    Port Throughput Forecasting Model Based on Context Change
    Lu Bo, Yang Xianfei, Wang Shouyang
    2018, 30 (1):  195-201. 
    Abstract ( 196 )   PDF (1473KB) ( 633 )  

    Context change is an important factor that affects the forecasting of port throughput. However, existing researches on the modeling of port throughput forecasting are relatively less concerned about this issue. A dynamic penalty support vector regression model is proposed in this paper. By dynamically adjusting the penalty coefficient of each data, this model is quickly adapted to the development of things under the new contexts and improves prediction accuracy. An empirical research is carried out based on annual cargo throughput data of Dalian Port and Tianjin port in the period from 1980 to 2014, and a comparison is made with traditional support vector regression model and ARIMA model. Experimental results show that this model has the following two characteristics compared with the other two regression models:first, when the context change, the model can quickly adapt to new context, so as to improve the accuracy of prediction; second, the prediction performance of the model is more accurate and stable, so it is able to improve the practicality.

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    Demand Signal Sharing in Competitive Dual Channels
    Mao Xiaobing
    2018, 30 (1):  202-209. 
    Abstract ( 165 )   PDF (1110KB) ( 494 )  

    This paper applies the game theory with incomplete information to explore the value of the signal data about demand and the information sharing issue in competitive dual channels. The research shows that the manufacturer's appropriate pricing for the signal data can induce the retailers to purchase such data and help the retailers to choose more reasonable retailing prices. Compared with the case without information sharing of signal, the manufacturer and the retailers can earn more profits from such information sharing, and the expected profits of the manufacturer and the retailers resulting from the information all increase in the accuracy of the signal. The increase of the competing intensity between the retailers will benefit the manfuacturer, and hurt the retailers themselves.

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    A RM-DEMATEL-based Analysis of the Factors that Influence Low-carbon Transportation
    Cui Qiang, Xu Xin, Kuang Haibo
    2018, 30 (1):  210-220. 
    Abstract ( 220 )   PDF (1186KB) ( 542 )  

    In order to further promote energy conservation and emission reduction and fundamentally realize low-carbon transportation, the influencing factors of transportation low-carbonization capacity need to be definitely found out and analyzed. The RM-DEMATEL method is proposed to improve the disadvantage of traditional Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model by subjectively using expert evaluation method to determine the direct impact matrices. The method could identify the influencing factors of transportation low-carbonization capacity more objectively. The multi-layer influencing factors index system is established, which is integrated by the four aspects of technical driving force, managerial driving force, industrial strength and transport structure. An empirical study of Chinese transportation system is carried out, the results show that the technical driving force factors are fundamental factors and managerial driving force factors are main factors of China's transportation low-carbonization capacity. This paper provides a theoretical basis for the strategy of the development of low-carbon transportation.

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    The Trend Forecast and Management of the Chinese Agricultural Surplus Labor Transfer During 2014-2030
    Xu Xiaohua, Zhu Zhen, Su Weifeng
    2018, 30 (1):  221-229. 
    Abstract ( 181 )   PDF (1368KB) ( 1325 )  

    Based on the previous studies, this paper develops a model to forecast the number of the agricultural surplus labors and the transfer number of agricultural surplus labors. With the transfer of agricultural surplus labors from 1978 to 2013 as sample, this paper adopts comparative labor productivity's recursive algorithm to analyze the current situation and forecast the trend of the agriculture surplus labors in 17 years. The research shows that the total number of agricultural surplus labors and the transfer of agricultural surplus labors are decreasing year by year, the absence of agriculture surplus labor will appear by around 2018. According to the forecast, we put forward countermeasure suggestions on how to promote the transfer of agricultural surplus labors reasonably and efficiently.

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    Research on Influence and Time-space Effect of New-type Urbanization on Urban Eco-environmental Quality
    Xie Rui, Chen Yan, Han Feng, Fang Jiayu
    2018, 30 (1):  230-241. 
    Abstract ( 304 )   PDF (1271KB) ( 486 )  

    Firstly, this paper proposes to build new urbanization indexes from four dimensions by analyzing where the "new" in the new urbanization is reflected. Then, we confirm that the new urbanization and eco-environmental quality have obvious spatial agglomeration and spatial spillover effect through spatial autocorrelation test and spatially localized LISA. After adding time and space factors, this study uses an improved STIRPAT model to study the influence and spatial spillover effect of new-type urbanization on urban eco-environmental quality using 284 prefecture level cities in China between 2003 and 2012. The results show that the new-type urbanization plays a decisive role in the factors affecting urban eco-environmental quality, which improves not only the quality of local eco-environmental quality, but also the nearby city through the spatial spillover effect. At the same time, due to the spatial attenuation and regional administrative barriers, the eco-environmental quality of nearby city has a negative effect on local eco-environmental quality. Finally, from a micro perspective, population, economic and spatial urbanization play a negative role in the eco-environment quality, while steady progress of social urbanization improves its eco-environmental quality.

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    How Trust Is Built and Evolves in the Context of Chinese Crowdfunding? A Case Study of Shui Mu Ke's Crowdfunding
    Wang Xueli, Dong Niannian
    2018, 30 (1):  242-255. 
    Abstract ( 254 )   PDF (1338KB) ( 915 )  

    This research employs a qualitative approach to perform an in-depth analysis of Shui Mu Ke's crowdfunding. We explore how the initial trust of investors is built before the crowdfunding. In addition, we analyze how project performance and the interaction strategy of fund raisers influence the evolution of trust after the crowdfunding. The results show that fund raisers' social network mobilization, third-party guarantee and media coverage all help to build the initial trust of investors, extending the scope of investors from a small circle of social connections to the general public. Investor's identity orientation moderates the relationship between project performance/interaction strategy and investor's trust. Poor project performance has negative impact on the trust of investors with personal orientation but no impact on the trust of investors with relational/collective orientation. Interaction strategy has positive impact on the trust of investors with relational/collective orientation but no impact on investors with personal orientation.

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    Fit Evolution between Strategy Models and Resource Acquisition of Business Incubator
    Lyu Yibo, Han Shaojie, Su Jingqin
    2018, 30 (1):  256-272. 
    Abstract ( 228 )   PDF (2010KB) ( 1057 )  

    This paper conducts a longitudinal exploratory single case study to explore the fit mechanism between strategy model and resource acquisition and the evolution path of them in the growing process of business incubator. The case selected is Dalian venture workshop technology service Co. Ltd, which is a leader among all business incubators in Dalian. This study finds that, (1) uncertainty and time pressure are the main external determinants of strategy model, and resource availability perceived by deciders is the main internal determinant of strategy model. Strategy model begins from plan strategy model, to improvisation strategy model, and ends with plan strategy model in the growing process of business incubator:founding stage, surviving stage and growing stage. (2) resource acquisition begins with direct resource bricolage, then focusing on convergence of direct and indirect resource bricolage, and finally moving to resource seeking. (3) there is a fit relationship between strategy model and resource acquisition. Specifically, improvisation strategy model shows fit with direct and indirect resource bricolage. And plan strategy model shows fit with resource seeking and direct resource bricolage. Resource endowment and organizational legitimacy are the main determinants of these fits.

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