The Trend Forecast and Management of the Chinese Agricultural Surplus Labor Transfer During 2014-2030

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the previous studies, this paper develops a model to forecast the number of the agricultural surplus labors and the transfer number of agricultural surplus labors. With the transfer of agricultural surplus labors from 1978 to 2013 as sample, this paper adopts comparative labor productivity's recursive algorithm to analyze the current situation and forecast the trend of the agriculture surplus labors in 17 years. The research shows that the total number of agricultural surplus labors and the transfer of agricultural surplus labors are decreasing year by year, the absence of agriculture surplus labor will appear by around 2018. According to the forecast, we put forward countermeasure suggestions on how to promote the transfer of agricultural surplus labors reasonably and efficiently.

Key words: agricultural surplus labor, agricultural transfer population, new type professional farmer

Xu Xiaohua, Zhu Zhen, Su Weifeng. The Trend Forecast and Management of the Chinese Agricultural Surplus Labor Transfer During 2014-2030[J]. , 2018, 30(1): 221-229.

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