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The Cyclical Transition Characteristics of the Bull and Bear States in China's Stock Market: Based on the DMCPSO-HSMM Model Yang Jie, Feng Yun, Yang Hao Management Review    2024, 36 (11): 3-13.   Abstract （342）      PDF （3327KB）（4377）       Knowledge map    This paper studies the periodic transition of the state of China’s stock market and discusses the time-varying distribution characteristics of returns of CSI300 in depth. By introducing the dynamic population reorganization based on the K-means + + clustering algorithm and the chaotic search strategy into the standard particle swarm optimization algorithm, a dynamic multi-population chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed, and the initial values of hidden semi-Markov model are further optimized based on this algorithm. The empirical analysis shows that there exist three states in China’s stock market, namely the bear, bull, and volatile markets. A bull market generally follows a bear market, and after a bullish situation, the market has a greater probability of turning to a volatile situation. The volatile state and the bearish state play key roles in the leptokurtic and heavy-tailed characteristics of the stock market, respectively. Based on the decoding results, a mode transformation network is constructed using the coarse-grained method, and key hub modes are identified. Further analysis is conducted on the co-movement of bull and bear states of large-, medium-, and small-cap stocks. There is a significant cyclical polarization between large-cap and medium-or small-cap stocks. Finally, we propose a more accurate out-of-sample forecasting method for the hidden semi-Markov model and prove the practical value of our model via a simple market timing strategy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting the Volatility of Chinese Crude Oil Market Based on Geopolitical Risk Yang Kun, Wei Yu, Li Shouwei, Liu Liang Management Review    2023, 35 (1): 16-31.   Abstract （281）      PDF （1473KB）（1589）       Knowledge map    Frequent geopolitical events in recent years are often regarded as a main cause of the intense fluctuations in crude oil market. Therefore, this paper first uses the GARCH-MIDAS-GPR-type models which incorporate geopolitical risk (GPR) indexes to analyze the impacts of the geopolitical risks of different countries, categories and severity on Chinese oil market volatility and the forecasting accuracy of the models. Then, the robustness of conclusions is further discussed from six perspectives: volatility forecasting with different lengths, volatility forecasting before and after the launch of Chinese crude oil futures, alternative basic model, direction-of-change of crude oil volatility forecasts, crude oil risk forecasting and portfolio management. Furthermore, three macroeconomic uncertainties and six economic policy uncertainties are introduced to compare how helpful different uncertainties are for prediction. The empirical results show that, first, the country-specific, overall and serious GPR indexes have significantly positive effects on the long-run volatility of Chinese crude oil market. Second, geopolitical risk indicators contribute to improving the accuracy of Chinese oil volatility forecasts to varying degrees, and the three GPR indexes which reflect the overall geopolitical risk of the world perform better than other GPR indexes. Finally, compared with the commonly used macroeconomic uncertainties and economic policy uncertainties, geopolitical risk can provide most useful information for forecasting crude oil volatility. All the above-mentioned conclusions are robust in statistical accuracy and applications. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Risk Spillover and Dynamic Conduction among Oil, Gold and Stock Markets: New Evidence from Implied Volatility He Meng, Zhu Xuehong, Chen Jinyu, Liao Jianhui Management Review    2025, 37 (1): 3-15.   Abstract （238）      PDF （2603KB）（727）       Knowledge map    The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a systematic impact on global financial markets. Based on a new perspective of implied volatility, a cutting-edge risk spillover network model is adopted to comprehensively examine the intensity, scale, and time-varying characteristics of risk spillovers among oil, gold, and major global stock markets. Then, based on the marginal spillover analysis method, the sources and dynamic transmission paths of risk spillovers among oil, gold, and stock markets are observed. The results show that there is a significant and asymmetric risk spillover effect among global oil, gold and stock markets, and the effect increased rapidly in the COVID-19 period, during which the spillover index reached its peak. The oil and gold markets are important sources of risk in the stock market, and the mainland Chinese stock market is the most important exporter of risk. After the outbreak of the epidemic, especially during the first two circuit breakers in the US stock market, the intensity of risk spillovers in the oil market and the Brazilian stock market increased sharply. With the effective control of the domestic epidemic, the mainland Chinese stock market has gradually transformed into a risk-taker. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of the Transition of Distribution Channels of Monetary Base on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Wang Shaolin, Lin Jianhao, Xu Shuyi Management Review    2024, 36 (1): 71-86.   Abstract （128）      PDF （2651KB）（304）       Knowledge map    The decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy is a typical fact of China's macroeconomic policies in recent years, so exploring the underlying reasons and optimization measures has become an important topic in the theoretical and practical circles. For this reason, based on the perspective of the changes in the distribution channels of monetary base, this paper first conducts a theoretical analysis, and then demonstrates at multiple levels how the changes in the distribution channels of monetary base affect the effectiveness of China's monetary policy through macroeconomic effect analysis and micro-mechanism testing. The research reaches the following conclusions. First, according to the estimation results of the VAR model with time-varying parameters, the macroeconomic effects of different channels of monetary base are quite different, but no obvious time-varying characteristics have been found, so one of the important reasons for the decline in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy is the structural changes of distribution channels of monetary base. Second, in terms of micro-mechanisms, there are big differences in the effects of different distribution channels of monetary base on corporate investment, which is an important channel for the distribution of monetary base to affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, there are significant differences in the ability of different distribution channels of monetary base to ease corporate financing constraints. Based on this, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for optimizing the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quality Effects: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market Li Bin, Feng Jiajie    2019, 31 (3): 14-26.   Abstract （863）      PDF （1290KB）（1607）       Knowledge map    This paper studies the effect of quality factor in asset pricing based on Chinese A stock market. Derived from Gordon's growth model, we measure the quality of a listed stock by its profitability, safety, growth and dividend payout. This paper calculates "Quality Score" for each stock and examines how the Quality Score affects its price and return. This paper further constructs a QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) portfolio that goes long quality stocks and shorts junk stocks. The empirical results show that the stocks with higher quality score have higher relative prices and risk-adjusted returns; QMJ portfolio earns significant risk-adjusted return and is unaffected by market fluctuation; controlling for the QMJ factor, the size effect is significantly enhanced. For the robustness test, we also divide the samples into two subsamples according to the Non-Tradable Shares Reform, and empirical results are still robust. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Financial Cycle: Index Construction and Its Interaction with Business Cycle Lu Xiaofan, Wang Pin, Hou Chengqi Management Review    2024, 36 (11): 50-60.   Abstract （188）      PDF （1826KB）（277）       Knowledge map    Because there is no unified standard to choose related financial variables in measuring financial cycle, according to the characteristics that financial variables are the leading indicators of business cycle and can predict the economic recession, this paper builds multiple financial cycle indexes, tests the ability of financial cycle indexes to predict economic recession by receiver operating characteristic curve, and then chooses the best financial cycle index. We find the best method is to measure credit scale by the credit provided by banks to the private non-financial sector, and estimate the dynamic factors by using credit, credit / GDP, housing price and stock price. The empirical analysis using TVP-SV-VAR model shows that, the impact on business cycle of positive financial cycle shock has obvious hump line characteristics and there is no significant time-varying effect; the impact on financial cycle of positive business cycle shock has obvious U-shaped curve characteristics and there is a significant time-varying effect; the impact on financial cycle of positive business cycle shock in the COVID-19 period is significantly different compared with other periods; the impact on business cycle of monetary policy shock gradually increases with the increase of the number of lag periods and is very lasting, and the impact on the financial cycle of it will peak very quickly and begin to weaken. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Analysis of the Risk Measurement in China’s Commodity Futures Market Zhang Tianding, Zeng Song Management Review    2023, 35 (4): 12-26.   Abstract （215）      PDF （3649KB）（791）       Knowledge map    The coexistence of high growth and high volatility over recent years in China’s commodity futures market where even “roller coaster” market conditions emerged in parallel with the international bulk commodity market have aroused wide concern over potential risks. Therefore, identifying and measuring commodity futures market risks is worth an in-depth exploration. In this paper, an observation-driven model based on score function is used to construct a dynamic semi-parametric model to estimate the expected shortfall and value at risk to measure and predict the risk of China’s commodity futures market. The results show that the generalized autoregressive scoring models based on student-T distribution, skewed student-T distribution, and asymmetric Student-t distribution have a good application. In this paper, the single-factor generalized autoregressive score model applied to risk measurement shows that the average loss of the single-factor generalized autoregressive score model is relatively smaller than that of the two-factor model, and the risk change of commodity futures can be observed more dynamically. The average Expected Shortfall of chemical futures is rather prominent, but the fluctuation range is small. In contrast, the Expected Shortfall extreme value of energy futures is higher, and the expected loss is as low as -13.03%. Comparatively speaking, the risk degree of the commodity futures market of agricultural and sideline products is relatively low. Commodity futures have exhibited varying degrees of risk accumulation in the near term since January 2021. Energy, chemicals, grains, soft commodities and grease oils futures showed significant expected losses from March 22 to April 14, 2021, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals futures showed significant expected losses from January 12 to January 15, 2021. Under the background of global economic recovery, the effective avoidance of commodity market risks has attracted the attention of market participants, policymakers and researchers. For the risk monitoring of the commodity market, we should pay attention to the impact of exogenous events and the persistence of risk events and carry out dynamic measurement of futures market risks. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Vertically and Horizontally: Customer Concentration, Coupling Coordination Degree and Firm Performance Shi Jinyan, Yu Conghui, Li Yanxi Management Review    2024, 36 (6): 229-242.   Abstract （223）      PDF （1692KB）（699）       Knowledge map    This research explores the impact of customer concentration (CC) on firm performance from the perspective of vertical supply chain, and further discusses the moderating effect of the coordinate interaction and competitive coercion between customers from the perspective of horizontal supply chain. Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies and their top five customers, the empirical results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between CC and firm performances, which is more pronounced in non-stateowned enterprises. Furthermore, we build a set of customer coupling coordination degree metrics from the perspective of major customers’ purchasing behavior, and find that the inverted U-shaped relationship between CC and firm performance is strengthened by customer coupling coordination degree. In other words, the improvement of customer coupling coordination degree will strengthen both the positive relationship between moderate concentration and firm performance and the negative relationship between over-concentration and firm performance. This paper deepens the research into the mechanism of how CC influences firm performance, and provides empirical evidence for explaining the impact of principal relationship in supply chain on firm performance from multiple perspectives. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Interpretable Corn Futures Price Forecasting with Multivariate Heterogeneous Data Zeng Yurong, Wu Binrong, Wang Lin, Zhang Jinlong Management Review    2023, 35 (12): 40-52.   Abstract （351）      PDF （2708KB）（411）       Knowledge map    The prediction and early warning of corn futures prices can help guide the high-quality development of the agricultural economy. Since June 2020, the corn futures prices have fluctuated violently, and accurate and efficient corn futures price forecasting methods are urgently needed. Given the problem that the existing researches do not fully consider the pandemic situation, policy regulation, and potential forecast information in news texts, this research, based on both qualitative and quantitative data, proposes an effective forecast framework for corn futures price interpretability, which takes multiple factors into consideration, such as the supply and demand relationship of the corn market, policy adjustments, international market shocks, epidemic shocks, the impact of emergencies and other factors that lead to the fluctuation of corn prices. At the same time, aiming at the problem of insufficient interpretability of existing corn futures price prediction, a novel DE-TFT interpretable corn futures price prediction model is proposed. The differential evolution algorithm is used to efficiently optimize the parameters of the Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT). TFT is a novel attention-based deep learning model that combines high-performance forecasting with temporal dynamic interpretable analysis, showing excellent performance in forecasting research. The TFT model can produce interpretable corn futures price prediction results, including attentional analysis of time steps and importance ranking of input variables. In the empirical study, the latent dirichlet allocation topic model is used to analyze the content and topics of corn news information and policy adjustments collected by “China Grain Network”, and the CNN classification model is used to extract the potential prediction information of news information. The interpretable experimental results show that the introduction of the Baidu index “pandemic”, which reflects the domestic epidemic situation and the quantified corn news text features, can further improve the accuracy of corn futures price prediction. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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New Infrastructure Construction and High-quality Economic Development Tong Jian, Zhang Cong, Yan Yong Management Review    2024, 36 (6): 81-93.   Abstract （181）      PDF （1271KB）（229）       Knowledge map    Coordinating the infrastructure construction is a clear requirement of the Report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, where the coordinated development of “new” and “old” infrastructure is the key to high-quality economic development in China. Based on identification of the production externalities of “old infrastructure” and the network externalities of the “new infrastructure”, breaking through the static research frame, this paper studies the structural change effect of infrastructure investment on the path of economic growth. It finds that the short-term stimulus effect of “old infrastructure” is stronger than that of the “new infrastructure”, while the long-term economic stimulus effect and innovation incentive effect of the “new infrastructure” are obviously stronger than that of the “old infrastructure”. Meanwhile, “term constraint” is the key variable for the government to set the time point of the structural transformation of infrastructure investment. Government concerning more on the short-term economic growth target with less policy attention period often delays the time point of the structural transformation of infrastructure investment, which leads to the “step down” phenomenon of economic growth however. The empirical results further verify that “old infrastructure” has given full play to production externalities in the early stage of economic growth, whereas the incentive effect of “old infrastructure” on economic growth and innovative development is significantly weakened. While, the incentive effect of “new infrastructure” on economic growth and innovative development is significantly enhanced. Therefore, the government should combine the relative changes of marginal output of “new” and “old” infrastructure, adapting to local conditions, to promote the transformation of “new” and “old” infrastructure as soon as possible, and to coordinate the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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How does Digital Economy Promote the High-quality and High-benefit Development of Agriculture?—Evidence from Sample Data of 30 Chinese Provinces Zhang Mingyu, Wu Zheng, Su Zhiwen, Zhang Yihua Management Review    2025, 37 (12): 16-27.   Abstract （122）      PDF （1175KB）（85）       Knowledge map    As digital economy accelerates its penetration into agriculture and rural areas, it has become a crucial engine for promoting high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture. How does the digital economy facilitate this agricultural advancement? Based on an in-depth interpretation of the connotation of high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture, this paper systematically analyzes the mechanism by which digital economy promotes agricultural development. Using data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022 as research samples, we empirically examine the promoting effects of digital economy on high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture. The main conclusions are as follows: First, digital economy can directly promote high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture. This promoting effect is stronger in central regions, plain areas, and areas with higher levels of industrialization. Second, digital economy can indirectly promote high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture by fostering agricultural technological innovation and enhancing rural entrepreneurship levels. Third, the promoting effect of digital economy on high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture exhibits non-linear characteristics. Rural human capital positively moderates the relationship between digital economy and high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture. When rural human capital surpasses 6.635, the promoting effect of digital economy development on high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture undergoes a structural leap. This study helps reveal the mechanism by which digital economy affects high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture, providing valuable policy insights for leveraging digital economy to promote agricultural advancement. To promote high-quality and high-benefit development of agriculture, efforts should be made to accelerate the construction of new digital rural infrastructure, stimulate the momentum of agricultural technological innovation, deepen support policies for rural entrepreneurship, and enhance the level of rural human capital. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon: Research Progress and Policy Implications Wu Bingbing, Li Xiuting, Ouyang Lu Management Review    2025, 37 (5): 53-66.   Abstract （111）      PDF （1639KB）（187）       Knowledge map    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a quantitative benchmark and an important analytical tool for climate policy. There have been extensive related international experience in estimating SCC values and applying SCC in policy analysis and formulation, but there is no official SCC calculation result in China. To provide a useful reference for improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system, this paper sorts out the relevant research results of SCC from the aspects of conceptual analysis and comparison, measurement methods and key parameters, policy significance and international practices and focuses on controversial issues such as the relationship between SCC and carbon pricing, international SCC and regional SCC, equity weighting, uncertainty, etc. This paper believes that in the process of building and improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system in China, we can try to introduce SCC valuation as a quantitative benchmark for carbon pricing and carbon trading tools. Based on the status quo of carbon emissions and carbon trading practices in China, as well as the characteristics of existing institutional frameworks and policy tools, we can also promote various carbon trading tools to manage carbon emissions coordinately, keep carbon prices within a reasonable range, and balance the fair relationship between generations, industries, and regions in the process of reducing carbon emissions. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study of Linkage between Crude Oil and Natural Gas in North American Market: Based on the Empirical Analysis of Bayesian DCC-GARCH Model and LSTAR Model Chai Jian, Lin Jie, Liang Ting Management Review    2021, 33 (7): 16-28.   Abstract （345）      PDF （2788KB）（575）       Knowledge map    The characteristic of oil and gas as substitutes for each other makes the two show a certain correlation. The changes and linkage of oil and gas prices in the world's largest oil and gas consumer market will affect the global energy development pattern and investment strategy. Firstly, the paper studies the overall correlation between crude oil and natural gas yields in North America based on the Bayesian DCC-GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH) model. In the case that the overall correlation between the two was less significant, the dynamic correlation characteristics of the two in trend, season and remainder are studied by STL decomposition. And then we analyze the nonlinear characteristics of correlation between oil and gas in trend through the LSTAR (Logistis Smooth Transformation Autoregressive) model. The results show the dynamic correlation between crude oil and natural gas yields in North American market is always positive, with a correlation range of[0.137,0.216] and a median of 0.181, the result of which could better reflect the time-varying characteristics of oil and gas linkage compared with the CCC-GARCH model (Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH). The correlation range of oil and gas is small, showing that there is no significant correlation between them. The results of STL decomposition show that there is a significant correlation between oil and gas yields in trend. And, LSTAR model could better characterize the correlation fluctuation and have a higher degree of fitting than AR model. The correlation between oil and gas in trend has a smooth transition at 2.026, and the transform speed from low zone to high zone is very fast. The results of the study have guiding significance for investors to increase their income, producers to control their costs, and the relevant government departments to formulate corresponding energy strategies. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Analytical Framework of Derivatives Sniper Attack Risk Based on the Case Study of Tsingshan Group’s Forced Liquidation Incident in LME Nickel Xu Yang, Bu Hui Management Review    2024, 36 (2): 257-272.   Abstract （445）      PDF （3628KB）（792）       Knowledge map    The nickel futures prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a sharp surge during the two trading days from March 7th to 8th, 2022. As a result, Tsingshan Holdings Group, a Chinese company heavily involved in nickel hedging, suffered a significant loss, which marks another risk event where a domestic enterprise participating in overseas derivative trading was targeted by international capital. This paper provides a detailed case analysis of the sniper activity among “LME nickel futures incidents”, and proposes an analytical framework for analyzing sniper events and sniper risk in the futures market from four dimensions: objective conditions, market environment, sniper strategies, and sniper motivation behind. The study reveals that the weak physical delivery capacity caused by cross-hedging became an objective condition for Tsingshan Group to be targeted, and the market environment of low-level nickel inventories triggered by geopolitical risks further limited Tsingshan Group's inventory control and delivery capacity. The design of LME contracts exposes trading positions and motivations, while the LME trading system facilitates short-term price manipulation and other sniper behaviors, allowing the inference of the using contract, timing, and price manipulation ways employed in this sniper attack. Analysis of large position reports reveals that the essence of this sniper attack may be a battle for nickel resources. Finally, this study utilizes event analysis to confirm that the sharp increase in nickel futures prices on March 7th, 2022, was driven by trading factors rather than fundamental factors. The analytical framework proposed in this research, which combines case analysis, data analysis, and empirical analysis, is of significant value in identifying sniper risks, recognizing market manipulation, and better evaluating related risks for early warning and prevention. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Gender Traits of Cross-gender Stereotype Endorsement and Product Signaling on Advertising Effectiveness: Based on the Context of Male Star Endorsing Female Products Jiang Hongyan, Xu Mengmeng, Chen Hong, Liu Bangshun Management Review    2022, 34 (7): 175-188.   Abstract （528）      PDF （1368KB）（709）       Knowledge map    The phenomenon of male stars endorsing female products (cross-gender stereotype endorsement) appears frequently in marketing. However, there are few studies focusing on star endorsement with different gender traits (masculine trait vs. feminine trait). Hereby the present research aims to explore how the interactive effect between spokesperson's gender traits and product signaling influences advertising effectiveness in the context of cross-gender stereotype endorsement. The analysis results indicate that, when identity signaling (vs. function signaling) is activated, cross-gender stereotype endorsement with masculine (vs. feminine) trait has a greater advertising effectiveness and such effect is driven by perceptions of uniqueness and quality. Furthermore, this study investigates the moderating role of incongruity level between product and endorsement in the above effects based on the Schema Incongruity Theory. This research has important theoretical contributions by expanding and enriching empirical studies of Match-up Hypothesis and Schema Incongruity Theory in the field of cross-gender stereotype endorsement, and practical implications by providing more detailed strategies of spokesperson selection and product advertising for managers. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Game Dilemma between China and the United States in Exchange Rate Policy and Its Countermeasures from the Perspective of Global Value Chain Yan Jiajia, Chen Fangqian Management Review    2024, 36 (9): 14-26.   Abstract （161）      PDF （2571KB）（319）       Knowledge map    The exchange rate policy, as a centralized manifestation of macroeconomic regulation by a country’s authorities, has become the core of the rivalry in the economic and trade fields between China and the United States. The United States relies on the dominant position of the US dollar to suppress China’s rise in the global value chain. Therefore, utilizing exchange rate policy to overcome the constraints of dollar hegemony and climb the value chain has become crucial for China in building a new development pattern. Based on the incomplete exchange rate pass-through under the framework of global value chain, this paper simulates the objective facts of exchange rate policy game between China and the United States by constructing a signaling game model, analyzes the typical cases of exchange rate policy game between the two countries after the global financial crisis in 2008 and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and verifies that in the face of the protectionist “coercion” game behavior pursued by the United States, China has achieved a policy shift from passive acceptance to active response, thanks to the reversal of the low-end locking of the division of labor in the value chain. But it is hard to reach a Pareto equilibrium due to the inward-looking interests of the US. In order to break this game dilemma, this paper further takes the trend of regionalization of global value chains as the focus, and argues that building a regional value chain led by China and forming a symmetric solution to the game with regional countries is a win-win choice. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Impact of Support Policies on the Promotion of New Energy Vehicles in China Li Xiaomin, Liu Yiran, Jing Bolun Management Review    2022, 34 (3): 55-65.   Abstract （644）      PDF （1306KB）（887）       Knowledge map    Quantitative evaluation of the effects of the new energy vehicle industry policy is conducive to providing a basis for the formu- lation and adjustment of China's follow-up policies. Based on the behavioral utility function of consumer vehicle demand and by choosing the monthly data of China's new energy passenger car market share in 2012-2018 as dependent variable, four government policies (re- garding financial subsidies, purchase tax exemption, no restrictions on the use and purchase of new energy vehicles and government/pub- lic procurement respectively) as independent variables and the selling price of new energy vehicles, battery prices, the difference be- tween oil and electricity prices, the number of new energy vehicle battery patent applications and the number of charging piles as control variables, this paper uses the time series cointegration model and error correction model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the four policies. The findings are as follows. Firstly, in 2012-2018, the four policies all have a positive effect on the promotion of China's new energy vehicles and among them, the financial subsidy policy has the largest effect. Secondly, the effect of financial subsidies gradually increased from 2012 to 2016, but began to decrease from 2017 to 2018. In addition, each 1% increase in the new energy vehicle pro- curement by government and public institutions will lead to an increase of 0.331% in the market share of new energy vehicles; each 1% increase in car purchase demand suppressed by the purchase restriction policy will lead to a 0.312% increase in the new energy vehicles market share. So far as the controll variables are concerned, an increase in the price of new energy vehicles and battery is not conducive to the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the difference in the prices of petrol and electricity, the number of battery technology patent applications, and an increase in the number of charging piles has a positive effect on the promotion of new energy vehicles in the long term. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Nonlinear Effect of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Based on PSTR Model Yang Youcai, Li Shun, Niu Xiaotong Management Review    2023, 35 (4): 66-78.   Abstract （146）      PDF （1812KB）（148）       Knowledge map    Based on the measurement of China’s RMB real effective exchange rate from 2001 to 2019, this paper uses the PSTR model to analyze the nonlinear impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth, and studies its mechanism. The research findings are as follows. (1) The impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth exhibits a non-linear characteristic: when the exchange rate is low, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation is weak, while when the exchange rate is high, the effect is strong. (2) The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate affects economic growth through three main channels: international trade, FDI and household consumption. International trade and household consumption have a positive intermediary effect, while FDI has a negative effect. Compared to low exchange rate levels, international trade has a stronger promoting effect on economic growth at high exchange rate levels, while FDI and household consumption have a weaker promoting effect. (3) From the perspective of regional differences, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation on economic growth in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions; from the perspective of specific impact channels, compared with the central and western regions, international trade in the eastern region has a stronger intermediary effect in the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth, while the intermediary effect of FDI and consumption is weaker. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of a Platform’s Entry into a Complementary Market on Its Competitive Advantage Tang Fangcheng, Jia Kai Management Review    2023, 35 (12): 228-238.   Abstract （142）      PDF （1421KB）（224）       Knowledge map    Platform entrying a complementary market in the platform ecosystem has been increasingly concerned by the theoretical and practical community. In order to explore the mechanism of how a platform's entry into a complementary market influences its competitive advantage, this paper studies the cases of JD Logistics and Cainiao Logistics, based on the platform ecosystem theory and grounded theory. The results show that: (1) platform entering a complementary market in an exclusive way will reduce the openness of the platform, resulting in a strong competitive effect between the platform and its complementors. Complementors' service innovation for the platform is reduced, but exclusive entry will enhance the dominant position of the platform, which is beneficial to platform governance; (2) platform entering a complementary market in the open way will enhance the openness of the platform and its complementors' enthusiasm for service innovation, and accelerates the development of the platform and platform ecosystem on the strength of network synergistic effect. The results enrich the platform ecosystem theory, reveal the role of platform openness changes in the process of platform entering complementary markets and provide a theoretical basis for platform's penetration into market and platform ecosystem's governance mechanisms. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Stock Index Prediction Based on Online News and Temporal Convolutional Long-short Term Memory Neural Network Cui Xiaoning, Su Danhua, Shang Wei Management Review    2024, 36 (7): 113-127.   Abstract （140）      PDF （2641KB）（262）       Knowledge map    This paper, based on the opinions of Internet financial news on the rise and fall of the stock market, conducts text analysis and modeling and establishes a sentiment lexicon for stock market, which is used to analyze the positive, negative and neutral sentiment of online financial news. During the process of sentiment analysis, the negative adverbs and the words which have inverse effect are considered. Then the sentiment feature is established for predicting the CSI 300 by temporal convolutional long-short term memory neural network. In terms of the sentiment lexicon, this paper applies Word2Vec to train large amount of Internet financial news, and builds Chinese sentiment lexicon of stock market domain under online news context in a semi-supervised way. This lexicon can effectively identify the opinions and the sentiment of stock market fluctuations in related news. In order to make full use of time series data features with text, a model, TCN-LSTM, combining temporal convolution with long-short term memory network is proposed in this study. Through the empirical analysis and comparisons, it can be found that the TCN-LSTM model is superior to other deep learning models on direction prediction and short-term numerical prediction. This study proposes a sentiment lexicon construction method for specific public opinion topics and establishes a sentiment lexicon based on online news for stock market prediction. Meanwhile, a financial time series prediction method based on deep learning is developed. The integration of temporal convolution and long-short term memory cell solves the tradeoff between local and long-term feature extraction, which is of great significance to improvimg the application effect of deep learning in the field of financial prediction. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics