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An Empirical Study on the Complexity of China's Real Estate Market Zhang Pinyi, Yang Juanni Management Review    2022, 34 (7): 47-56.   Abstract （310）      PDF （1301KB）（3593）       Knowledge map    The abnormal fluctuations of the real estate market and the uncertainty of the impact of economic policy adjustments on the real estate market have drawn great attention of the government and scholars. Based on the theory of complexity science, this paper uses complexity methods to study the complexity characteristics of China's real estate market by correlation dimension tests, Lyapunov index tests, dissipative entropy method and R/S analysis method. The results imply that China's real estate system has the non-linear characteristics of "spikes and thick tails" and the chaotic characteristics of inherent randomness and sensitivity to initial values. Moreover, under the monetary policy, the real estate system is in an orderly state, with the characteristics of dissipative structure, long-term memory and self-similar fractal structure. Therefore, China's real estate system cannot achieve an orderly situation by itself, and it is necessary to combine with the continuous monetary policy regulation to achieve a healthy and orderly development of the real estate market. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Cyclical Transition Characteristics of the Bull and Bear States in China's Stock Market: Based on the DMCPSO-HSMM Model Yang Jie, Feng Yun, Yang Hao Management Review    2024, 36 (11): 3-13.   Abstract （367）      PDF （3327KB）（5117）       Knowledge map    This paper studies the periodic transition of the state of China’s stock market and discusses the time-varying distribution characteristics of returns of CSI300 in depth. By introducing the dynamic population reorganization based on the K-means + + clustering algorithm and the chaotic search strategy into the standard particle swarm optimization algorithm, a dynamic multi-population chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed, and the initial values of hidden semi-Markov model are further optimized based on this algorithm. The empirical analysis shows that there exist three states in China’s stock market, namely the bear, bull, and volatile markets. A bull market generally follows a bear market, and after a bullish situation, the market has a greater probability of turning to a volatile situation. The volatile state and the bearish state play key roles in the leptokurtic and heavy-tailed characteristics of the stock market, respectively. Based on the decoding results, a mode transformation network is constructed using the coarse-grained method, and key hub modes are identified. Further analysis is conducted on the co-movement of bull and bear states of large-, medium-, and small-cap stocks. There is a significant cyclical polarization between large-cap and medium-or small-cap stocks. Finally, we propose a more accurate out-of-sample forecasting method for the hidden semi-Markov model and prove the practical value of our model via a simple market timing strategy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Financial Cycle: Index Construction and Its Interaction with Business Cycle Lu Xiaofan, Wang Pin, Hou Chengqi Management Review    2024, 36 (11): 50-60.   Abstract （203）      PDF （1826KB）（507）       Knowledge map    Because there is no unified standard to choose related financial variables in measuring financial cycle, according to the characteristics that financial variables are the leading indicators of business cycle and can predict the economic recession, this paper builds multiple financial cycle indexes, tests the ability of financial cycle indexes to predict economic recession by receiver operating characteristic curve, and then chooses the best financial cycle index. We find the best method is to measure credit scale by the credit provided by banks to the private non-financial sector, and estimate the dynamic factors by using credit, credit / GDP, housing price and stock price. The empirical analysis using TVP-SV-VAR model shows that, the impact on business cycle of positive financial cycle shock has obvious hump line characteristics and there is no significant time-varying effect; the impact on financial cycle of positive business cycle shock has obvious U-shaped curve characteristics and there is a significant time-varying effect; the impact on financial cycle of positive business cycle shock in the COVID-19 period is significantly different compared with other periods; the impact on business cycle of monetary policy shock gradually increases with the increase of the number of lag periods and is very lasting, and the impact on the financial cycle of it will peak very quickly and begin to weaken. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quality Effects: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market Li Bin, Feng Jiajie    2019, 31 (3): 14-26.   Abstract （895）      PDF （1290KB）（1769）       Knowledge map    This paper studies the effect of quality factor in asset pricing based on Chinese A stock market. Derived from Gordon's growth model, we measure the quality of a listed stock by its profitability, safety, growth and dividend payout. This paper calculates "Quality Score" for each stock and examines how the Quality Score affects its price and return. This paper further constructs a QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) portfolio that goes long quality stocks and shorts junk stocks. The empirical results show that the stocks with higher quality score have higher relative prices and risk-adjusted returns; QMJ portfolio earns significant risk-adjusted return and is unaffected by market fluctuation; controlling for the QMJ factor, the size effect is significantly enhanced. For the robustness test, we also divide the samples into two subsamples according to the Non-Tradable Shares Reform, and empirical results are still robust. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Nonlinear Effect of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Based on PSTR Model Yang Youcai, Li Shun, Niu Xiaotong Management Review    2023, 35 (4): 66-78.   Abstract （149）      PDF （1812KB）（294）       Knowledge map    Based on the measurement of China’s RMB real effective exchange rate from 2001 to 2019, this paper uses the PSTR model to analyze the nonlinear impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth, and studies its mechanism. The research findings are as follows. (1) The impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth exhibits a non-linear characteristic: when the exchange rate is low, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation is weak, while when the exchange rate is high, the effect is strong. (2) The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate affects economic growth through three main channels: international trade, FDI and household consumption. International trade and household consumption have a positive intermediary effect, while FDI has a negative effect. Compared to low exchange rate levels, international trade has a stronger promoting effect on economic growth at high exchange rate levels, while FDI and household consumption have a weaker promoting effect. (3) From the perspective of regional differences, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation on economic growth in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions; from the perspective of specific impact channels, compared with the central and western regions, international trade in the eastern region has a stronger intermediary effect in the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth, while the intermediary effect of FDI and consumption is weaker. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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“Chengyi” in Brand Communications—Theoretical Construction and Scale Development of Consumers’ Perceived Sincerity Yang Sixiao, Song Kun, Lu Cheng Management Review    2025, 37 (6): 128-140.   Abstract （181）      PDF （4958KB）（246）       Knowledge map    As Chinese consumers pay more attention to the experience in brand communications, the word “Chengyi” frequently appears in consumer reviews. The marketing communication of international brands in the Chinese market is especially easy to trigger the problem of “Chengyi”. Although “Chengyi” has long been regarded as a key concept by brands, it is rich in meaning in the Eastern discourse system, and the field of marketing management lacks in-depth explanation and application of “Chengyi” from Chinese cultural roots. This study proposes the significance of Consumers’ Perceived Sincerity in brand communication. Based on the review of Confucian literature, this construct is defined formally. Using interviews and questionnaire surveys, this study develops the Consumers’ Perceived Sincerity Scale and determines its four-dimension structure. The reliability and validity of the scale are tested and prove to be well-performing. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, the construct is distinguished from similar constructs in previous studies. In addition to providing a measure for further investigation of Consumers’ Perceived Sincerity, this study provides a new perspective and framework for brand analysis and management of marketing communications. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Vertically and Horizontally: Customer Concentration, Coupling Coordination Degree and Firm Performance Shi Jinyan, Yu Conghui, Li Yanxi Management Review    2024, 36 (6): 229-242.   Abstract （243）      PDF （1692KB）（841）       Knowledge map    This research explores the impact of customer concentration (CC) on firm performance from the perspective of vertical supply chain, and further discusses the moderating effect of the coordinate interaction and competitive coercion between customers from the perspective of horizontal supply chain. Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies and their top five customers, the empirical results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between CC and firm performances, which is more pronounced in non-stateowned enterprises. Furthermore, we build a set of customer coupling coordination degree metrics from the perspective of major customers’ purchasing behavior, and find that the inverted U-shaped relationship between CC and firm performance is strengthened by customer coupling coordination degree. In other words, the improvement of customer coupling coordination degree will strengthen both the positive relationship between moderate concentration and firm performance and the negative relationship between over-concentration and firm performance. This paper deepens the research into the mechanism of how CC influences firm performance, and provides empirical evidence for explaining the impact of principal relationship in supply chain on firm performance from multiple perspectives. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Railway Commonweal Transportation Subsidy Mechanism in China Based on Game Theory Zhang Yinyan, Tong Qiong    2018, 30 (4): 235-246.   Abstract （369）      PDF （1250KB）（887）       Knowledge map    Railway transportation bears heavily on the people's livelihood and especially on public welfare as commonweal transportation service is provided at prices lower than market prices. Therefore, developing a railway transportation subsidy mechanism is of great significance for railway transportation to play a role as a commonweal tool in China. First, by analyzing different railway commonweal transportation subsidy mechanisms of China, Britain, France and Norway, this paper summarizes four railway commonweal transportation subsidy schemes, i.e., cross-subsidy and loss subsidy scheme, franchise and the lowest subsidy bid, fixed subsidy for each unit of freight contract and performance subsidy contract. Then, this paper observes the benefits associated different situations directly, by analyzing players' best responses under different institutional arrangements from the perspective of game theory. At last, based on our own national conditions, this paper analyzes the applicability of four railway commonweal transportation subsidy schemes in China, and presents recommendations:cross-subsidy and loss subsidy scheme has the lowest efficiency, so it must be reformed as soon as possible; in the short term, performance subsidy contract is suitable for China; in the medium term, the most appropriate subsidy mechanism should be fixed subsidy for each unit of freight contract; and in the long term, competition should be introduced into the railway transport industry and the structure of railway transportation market should be adjusted in such a manner as to ensure that multiple railway transportation players will be invited for the franchise bidding with the lowest-subsidy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Measurement and Application of News-based Equity Market Volatility in China Yang Jianlei, Yang Chunpeng, Cui Wenxiao Management Review    2023, 35 (9): 26-36,101.   Abstract （288）      PDF （1666KB）（766）       Knowledge map    This paper constructs a newspaper-based Chinese Equity Market Volatility (CEMV) tracker that moves with the realized volatility of the Chinese stock market. Using the macroeconomic data from January 2005 to October 2020, we further estimate a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to assess the impact of CEMV on the Chinese economy and equity prices. We find that:(1) The CEMV index peaks are closely related to the large market fluctuations. Regressing the realized volatility of the stock market index on contemporaneous EMV values yields a significant slope coefficient. (2) Parsing the underlying text, we construct the CEMV indexes of four policy categories that respond differently to specific market shocks. (3) The stock market volatility driven by policy news foreshadows declines in output growth, price levels and equity returns. Moreover, CEMV has an overall positive impact on money supply growth and exacerbates the short-term fluctuations in investor sentiment. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon: Research Progress and Policy Implications Wu Bingbing, Li Xiuting, Ouyang Lu Management Review    2025, 37 (5): 53-66.   Abstract （127）      PDF （1639KB）（316）       Knowledge map    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a quantitative benchmark and an important analytical tool for climate policy. There have been extensive related international experience in estimating SCC values and applying SCC in policy analysis and formulation, but there is no official SCC calculation result in China. To provide a useful reference for improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system, this paper sorts out the relevant research results of SCC from the aspects of conceptual analysis and comparison, measurement methods and key parameters, policy significance and international practices and focuses on controversial issues such as the relationship between SCC and carbon pricing, international SCC and regional SCC, equity weighting, uncertainty, etc. This paper believes that in the process of building and improving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy system in China, we can try to introduce SCC valuation as a quantitative benchmark for carbon pricing and carbon trading tools. Based on the status quo of carbon emissions and carbon trading practices in China, as well as the characteristics of existing institutional frameworks and policy tools, we can also promote various carbon trading tools to manage carbon emissions coordinately, keep carbon prices within a reasonable range, and balance the fair relationship between generations, industries, and regions in the process of reducing carbon emissions. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Mechanism of the Recent Decreasing of Capital Investment: The Long-term Effect of the RMB 4 Trillion Economic Stimulus Packages Lian Lishuai, Chen Chao Management Review    2021, 33 (4): 47-58.   Abstract （411）      PDF （1245KB）（398）       Knowledge map    This study examines the mechanism of the decreasing of the capital investment in recent pressure of economic downturn (hereafter downturn period) from the perspective of the long-term impact of the RMB 4 trillion economic stimulus packages (hereafter four trillion packages). We find that firms affected more by four trillion packages invest less in the downturn period, and this effect is stronger for non-stated owned enterprises (NSOEs) than for SOEs. We also find that monetary policy has little impact on the relation between the impact of the four trillion packages on firm investment in downturn period, and the effect of four trillion packages and firm investment in downturn period is stronger for firms from lower marketization areas than those from higher marketization areas. Our further analyses show that the channels through which the four trillion packages affects firm investment in downturn period are risk preference and investment opportunity. Our findings suggest that the long-term impact of four trillion packages is the possible reason of the decreasing of recent capital investment. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Foreign Stones can Polish Jade: Policy Uncertainty and Multinational Enterprises’ Multimarket Contact Deng Xinming, Qin Yi, He Jiurui, Zhong Lejia, Lin Shiqi Management Review    2026, 38 (2): 3-14.   Abstract （116）      PDF （1255KB）（73）       Knowledge map    The overseas business practices of multinational enterprises are faced with changing policies and complex institutional environment. Previous studies on policy uncertainty and its economic consequences fail to clarify whether companies can use cross-market forces to alleviate policy uncertainty. This paper uses the panel data of the global mobile phone industry from 2013 to 2022 to empirically test the relationship between policy uncertainty and multimarket contact. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between host country policy uncertainty and multimarket contact. Specifically, under medium extent of institutional uncertainty, multinational enterprises could use multimarket contact to form mutual forbearance with local competitors, thereby alleviating the uncertainty of the host country market. Media governance in host countries and policy uncertainty in home countries amplify the inverted U-shaped relationship between policy uncertainty and multimarket contact. This paper provides important practical enlightenment for multinational enterprises to cope with the turbulent international business environment. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Use on Employee Work Performance: Based on the Functional and Relational Perspectives Wei Wei, Yang Lele Management Review    2025, 37 (10): 162-173.   Abstract （244）      PDF （1381KB）（222）       Knowledge map    With the widespread use of AI in the workplace, AI has gradually become a collaborator in employees’ work and has a profound impact on employees’ behavioral performance. The impact of AI use on employees’ work performance still needs to be explored in depth. Based on social cognitive theory, this paper explores the mechanism of how AI use influences employee work performance from the functional perspective and the relationship perspective respectively. An independent research is conducted using scenario experiment method and questionnaire method. The results of scenario experiments show that AI use has a positive impact on employee work performance. The questionnaire results show that AI use has a positive impact on employee work performance through width self-efficacy, and AI use will also have a positive impact on employee work performance through process participation. Width self-efficacy and process participation play a mediating role in the impact of AI use on employee work performance. The indirect effect of AI use on employee performance through breadth self-efficacy and process participation is stronger when AI training is stronger.The research results further expand the research on the impact of AI use on employee performance, providing practical implications for employee performance management in the intelligent workplace. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Analytical Framework of Derivatives Sniper Attack Risk Based on the Case Study of Tsingshan Group’s Forced Liquidation Incident in LME Nickel Xu Yang, Bu Hui Management Review    2024, 36 (2): 257-272.   Abstract （485）      PDF （3628KB）（878）       Knowledge map    The nickel futures prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a sharp surge during the two trading days from March 7th to 8th, 2022. As a result, Tsingshan Holdings Group, a Chinese company heavily involved in nickel hedging, suffered a significant loss, which marks another risk event where a domestic enterprise participating in overseas derivative trading was targeted by international capital. This paper provides a detailed case analysis of the sniper activity among “LME nickel futures incidents”, and proposes an analytical framework for analyzing sniper events and sniper risk in the futures market from four dimensions: objective conditions, market environment, sniper strategies, and sniper motivation behind. The study reveals that the weak physical delivery capacity caused by cross-hedging became an objective condition for Tsingshan Group to be targeted, and the market environment of low-level nickel inventories triggered by geopolitical risks further limited Tsingshan Group's inventory control and delivery capacity. The design of LME contracts exposes trading positions and motivations, while the LME trading system facilitates short-term price manipulation and other sniper behaviors, allowing the inference of the using contract, timing, and price manipulation ways employed in this sniper attack. Analysis of large position reports reveals that the essence of this sniper attack may be a battle for nickel resources. Finally, this study utilizes event analysis to confirm that the sharp increase in nickel futures prices on March 7th, 2022, was driven by trading factors rather than fundamental factors. The analytical framework proposed in this research, which combines case analysis, data analysis, and empirical analysis, is of significant value in identifying sniper risks, recognizing market manipulation, and better evaluating related risks for early warning and prevention. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Research on the Mechanism of How Multi-factor Linkage Effect Drives Knowledge Workers' Taking Charge: Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on AMO Theory Ma Ling, Liu Shuo, Zhao Shuming, Wang Siqi Management Review    2023, 35 (6): 205-216.   Abstract （238）      PDF （1465KB）（314）       Knowledge map    With the increasing environmental uncertainty, how to motivate knowledge workers' taking charge behavior has become a focus of researchers at home and abroad. Based on AMO theory and fsQCA method, this paper makes a two-stage survey of knowledge workers in 210 enterprises and explores the driving configuration of knowledge workers' taking charge behavior driven by multi-factors such as role breadth self-efficacy, prosocial motivation, empowering leadership, task significance and organizational support. It is found that the driving mechanism of knowledge workers' high taking charge behavior has six configurations, which can be summarized and integrated into three types: capability-driving based on leadership empowerment, capability-driving based on task guidance and motivation-driving based on leadership empowerment. The driving mechanism of knowledge workers' non high taking charge behavior has four configurations, which are divided into two types: self-efficacy deficiency and organizational support deficiency. And there is an asymmetric causal relationship with the driving configuration of high taking charge behavior. This paper reveals effective ways to motivate knowledge workers to take charge, which are helpful for enterprises to achieve sustainable development in the face of challenges and competition. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Study on Borrowers' Paying Behavior of “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul” Lan Rujia Management Review    2024, 36 (5): 25-39.   Abstract （204）      PDF （2960KB）（501）       Knowledge map    The rapid development of China's Fintech online lending platforms has provided borrowers with more accesses to funds, espe-cially by “robbing Peter to pay Paul”. Using micro data from one of the largest cash loan platforms in China, this paper empirically stud-ies the paying behavior of borrowers “robbing Peter to pay Paul” from two perspectives:payday loans' order level and borrower level. This study shows borrowers who are “robbing Peter to pay Paul” have higher probability of default or late payment. The more frequently a borrower uses payday loan “huabei”, the more likely the borrower is to default or delay payment. Default or late payment is more likely to occur in male than in female, and in those who live in small cities than those who live in big cities. This paper tries to explain the bor-rowers' default from the aspect of “robbing Peter to pay Paul”, and the conclusions are helpful for supervising China' online lending market, improving personal credit system and regulating the cash loan market. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Guarantee Network Risk Contagion Mechanism： Path Analysis and Empirical Research Lv Jing, Wang Ying, Guo Pei Management Review    2022, 34 (3): 67-78.   Abstract （439）      PDF （1485KB）（471）       Knowledge map    From the network structure of relations in guarantee network, we apply network analysis and the data of listed companies from 2003 to 2017 on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to analyze guarantee network risk contagion mechanism. The results show that negative shock or the increase of relations significantly exacerbates risk contagion. But negative shock can only lead to risk contagion through guarantee chain, which demonstrates that the path of guarantee network risk contagion has relationship transitivity, which de- pends on the relation of guarantee chain. In the process of guarantee network formation, the ineffective guarantee contract and asymmetric information caused by lack of legal environment and the rigid restriction of guarantee contracts or implicit guarantee of state-owned enter- prises caused by low financial marketization are drivers underlying enterprises' motivation to join the guarantee chain and this will finally lead to risk contagion in guarantee network. Furthermore, the negative shock has a great influence on these enterprises with a high be- tweenness and those highly related enterprisess tend to gain prosperity or sufer loss jointly. Therefore, the government should improve in- stitutional environment and visual supervision of network structure of guarantee behavior among listed companies. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Case Study on the Ecological Dominance of Technologically Leading Enterprises in Emerging Technology Innovation Ecosystems He Jianhong, Su Yuan, Li Lin, Gao Ping Management Review    2025, 37 (8): 276-288.   Abstract （171）      PDF （3323KB）（121）       Knowledge map    Enabling technologically leading enterprises to acquire and maintain ecological dominance in the emerging technology innovation ecosystem is an important measure for nurturing “chain leaders” and enhancing the autonomy of the innovation chain industry chain. However, this goal often faces challenges such as dynamic environmental changes, resource misallocation within the enterprise, and strategic misalignment. The paper, based on the “Condition-Action-Outcome” analytical approach, takes CATL as a case study, and divides the process of acquiring and maintaining dominance in the emerging technological innovation ecosystem into two stages: “riding on the wind” and “achieving long-term success.” It explores how CATL, guided by strategic thinking, orchestrates resources to acquire and sustain its dominance, and constructs a process model for technologically leading enterprises to gain and maintain dominance in emerging technological innovation ecosystems. The findings are as follows. First, the coupling of the external industrial environment and technological environment opens a window of opportunity for enterprises to develop strategic foresight and strategic symbiosis thinking based on different stages of ecosystem dominance development. Second, implementing different resource orchestration methods based on the resource differences at various development stages is key to improving resource orchestration efficiency, locking in and amplifying existing advantages, and thereby acquiring and maintaining ecosystem dominance. The research conclusions provide valuable insights for technologically leading enterprises in acquiring and maintaining dominance in emerging technology innovation ecosystems in a complex and ever-changing environment, thereby providing beneficial guidance for nurturing and growth of technologically leading enterprises. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Formation Path and Mechanism of Cross-border Integration of Business Models in the Context of Digital Transformation: Hybrid Research Based on Grounded Theory and fsQCA Wang Bingcheng, Sun Yuxin, Zhao Jingyi Management Review    2025, 37 (5): 277-288.   Abstract （184）      PDF （1326KB）（252）       Knowledge map    Digitization has blurred industry boundaries and promoted industrial integration. Many enterprises choose to gain competitive advantages through cross-border integration of multiple business models. However, existing researches lack a systematic analysis of its driving factors and formation paths. This paper first uses classical grounded theory to extract the driving factors for cross-border integration of business models in the context of digital transformation, and then uses a combination of NCA and fsQCA methods to configure and analyze these factors, in order to explore the formation path and mechanism of cross-border integration of business models in the context of digital transformation. The findings are as follows. (1) The cross-border integration of business models in the context of digital transformation is influenced by resource and capability factors such as unabsorbed slack resources, cross-border knowledge search and digital technology embedding, external environment insight, organizational coordination flexibility and employee skill malleability; (2) The above six factors cannot constitute the necessary conditions for cross-border integration of business models, but improving external environmental insight and cross-border knowledge search level plays a relatively universal role in achieving cross-border integration of business models; (3) There are four groupings that drive the cross-border integration of business models, which can be categorized as stepby-step, employee-technology matching, rapid advancement, and flexible response based on the extension of employees' skills, led by the dual elements of cross-border knowledge resources and environmental insights. The research conclusion provides systematic thinking and useful insights for enterprises on how to achieve cross-border integration of business models in the context of digital transformation. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting the Volatility of Chinese Crude Oil Market Based on Geopolitical Risk Yang Kun, Wei Yu, Li Shouwei, Liu Liang Management Review    2023, 35 (1): 16-31.   Abstract （299）      PDF （1473KB）（1742）       Knowledge map    Frequent geopolitical events in recent years are often regarded as a main cause of the intense fluctuations in crude oil market. Therefore, this paper first uses the GARCH-MIDAS-GPR-type models which incorporate geopolitical risk (GPR) indexes to analyze the impacts of the geopolitical risks of different countries, categories and severity on Chinese oil market volatility and the forecasting accuracy of the models. Then, the robustness of conclusions is further discussed from six perspectives: volatility forecasting with different lengths, volatility forecasting before and after the launch of Chinese crude oil futures, alternative basic model, direction-of-change of crude oil volatility forecasts, crude oil risk forecasting and portfolio management. Furthermore, three macroeconomic uncertainties and six economic policy uncertainties are introduced to compare how helpful different uncertainties are for prediction. The empirical results show that, first, the country-specific, overall and serious GPR indexes have significantly positive effects on the long-run volatility of Chinese crude oil market. Second, geopolitical risk indicators contribute to improving the accuracy of Chinese oil volatility forecasts to varying degrees, and the three GPR indexes which reflect the overall geopolitical risk of the world perform better than other GPR indexes. Finally, compared with the commonly used macroeconomic uncertainties and economic policy uncertainties, geopolitical risk can provide most useful information for forecasting crude oil volatility. All the above-mentioned conclusions are robust in statistical accuracy and applications. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics