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›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 207-217.

• 投入占用产出技术及其应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于地区间能源-碳排放-经济投入占用产出模型的经济结构调整

付雪1,5, Michael L. Lahr2, 张亚雄3, 孟渤4   

  1. 1. 南昌大学经济管理学院, 南昌 330031;
    2. EJB School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901;
    3. 国家信息中心, 北京 100045;
    4. 亚洲经济研究所, 千叶 261-8545;
    5. 南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-12 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2018-05-29
  • 作者简介:付雪,南昌大学经济管理学院副教授,中国中部经济社会发展研究中心特聘研究员,博士;Michael L.Lahr,EJB Schoolof Planning&Public Policy,Rutgers University教授,博士;张亚雄,国家信息中心研究员,博士;孟渤,亚洲经济研究所高级研究员,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目（71333010）；江西省自然科学基金（数学类）（20151BAB201024）；国家重点研发计划（2016YFA0602800）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573150；71573062）；国家社科基金课题（10CJL033）；国家社科基金重点项目（10zd&032）；江西省教育科学规划课题（15ZD3LYB005）；2015年文教类高端外国专家项目（GDW20157200305）；江西省教育厅普通本科高校中青年教师发展计划访问学者专项资金项目资助（2016109）。

Industry Structure Adjustment Based on an Interregional Energy-Carbon Emissions-Economic Input-Output Model

Fu Xue1,5, Michael L. Lahr2, Zhang Yaxiong3, Meng Bo4   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031;
    2. EJB School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA;
    3. State Information Center, Beijing 100045;
    4. Institute of Development Economies-JERRO, Chiba 261-8545, Japan;
    5. Research Center for Economics and Social Development of Central China, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031
  • Received:2016-10-12 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

鉴于中国2030年碳强度比较2005年下降60%约束条件以及GDP增长目标,本文认为地区间的产业转移有助于中国实现这一目标,并提出一个多区域多夫曼-萨缪尔森-索罗模型。它不同于前人国家能源的优化投入产出模型,自编制能源-碳排放-经济地区间投入产出表,以全国为一个系统,反映各地区隐含于产品和服务的碳排放,然后应用线性规划方法给出经济增长最大化和碳减排双目标下各地区分产业碳排放指标以及结构调整规划。当设定供给和需求平衡和能源使用变化的实际条件约束,模型结果表明应该削减能源消耗并将重工业转移出中国地区。当GDP年增长6.5%时,总碳排放量与2010年水平相比上升1.6%,单位GDP的二氧化碳排放量年度下降4.4%。东部(0.6%)碳排放份额下降,中部地区和北部沿海的碳排放份额将上升(1%和0.2%)。欠发达地区高碳排放的金属压延业和金属加工制造业产出比例下降迅速。在中部和北部沿海地区下降0.9%,在西北和西南地区下降0.8%,因低碳排放的服务业的房地产业、金融和其他服务业的产出比例上升被抵消,在东部、南部沿海和京津分别增长5.8%,5.3%和5.1%。中国经济下行造成产业结构调整压力加深。能源结构趋向清洁化将减轻中国整体重工业和中部地区能源工业的碳减排压力,减排关键是对落后地区提高技术转移和合作。

关键词: 地区间投入产出模型, 碳排放, 产业结构调整

Abstract:

In term of the binding goal for China to reduce its carbon emissions by 2030 to a level at least 60% lower than that in 2005, this paper proposes that interregional industrial shifts might enable China to meet this goal. Instead of the previous national energy-related optimal input-output model, a Dorfman-Samuelson-Solow model is presented by using an energy-carbon emission-economic multiregional input-output table of China reflecting embodied carbon within products and services among various regions of China as an entire system, in a linear programming format and at given national carbon targets, with the aim of maximizing the national GDP so as to confirm the in-dexes of carbon emissions in the range of different regions and the plan of structure shifts. Under constraints for both demand-supply bal-ance and energy-use change within practical limits, the model suggests moving the energy and heavy industries out of China. When GDP grew by 6.5%, the amount and intensity of carbon emissions annually increased by 1.6% and decreased by 4.4 respectively compared with 2010. The carbon emissions share of the East Coast declined by 0.6%, while that of the Central and North Coast rose by 1% and 0. 2% respectively. The underdeveloped regions saw a rapid decline in the output share of Smelting and Pressing of Metals, for example, by 0.9% in the Central also in the North Coast, and 0.8% both in the Northwest and Southeast. The above decreased share of output would offset the increased share of real estate, finance and other service, which grew by 5.8% in the East Coast, 5.3% in the South Coast, and 5.1% in the North Municipalities. Moreover, the slow growth lays greater pressure on industry shifts. Also, adjusting the energy mix to-ward cleaner resources will alleviate some pressure to reduce the carbon emissions of heavy industry throughout China and of the energy industry in the Central. It is clear that the key to reducing carbon emissions is to advance the technology in and cooperate with less devel-oped regions.

Key words: multiregional input-output analysis, carbon emission, industry structure change