管理评论

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 218-224.

• 投入占用产出技术及其应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国对美国贸易反制措施的效果评价——基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的研究

李鑫茹1,2, 孔亦舒1,2, 陈锡康1,2, 祝坤福3, 田开兰1,2,4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    3. 对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院, 北京 100029;
    4. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Netherland 9700AB
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-10 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2018-05-29
  • 作者简介:李鑫茹,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生;孔亦舒,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生;陈锡康,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员;祝坤福,对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院副研究员;田开兰,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生,格罗宁根大学经济与商务学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    中美交流基金会项目；国家自然科学基金项目（71473244；71673269）。

Impact of China's Trade Countermeasures on the United States:A Study Based on the Non-competitive Input-occupancy-output Model

Li Xinru1,2, Kong Yishu1,2, Chen Xikang1,2, Zhu Kunfu3, Tian Kailan1,2,4   

  1. 1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    3. Research Institute for Global Value Chains, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029;
    4. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Netherland 9700 AB
  • Received:2017-09-10 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

PDF (PC)

657

摘要：

随着中美经贸关系的不断深化,双边贸易为两国经济发展带来了巨大好处。然而,新总统特朗普上台以来,美国贸易保护主义出现升温迹象,使得中美贸易形势面临着严峻的挑战。美国无论是全面提高对华进口商品关税,还是更加频繁地挑起贸易摩擦,都将对中国经济和就业造成严重的负面影响。面对可能的贸易保护主义加剧,中国应及早做好应对准备。本文给出了中国可对美国采取的四种贸易反制措施,包括整体减少对美进口的全面反制措施,以及三种非对称性反制措施——减少美国波音飞机订单、减少美国大豆进口和限制赴美旅游人数,并基于美国2015年非竞争型投入占用产出表测算了四种反制措施对美国经济和就业的影响。最终,结合反制措施效果和可行性分析,本文认为,中国对美国贸易反制应着力于重点产品和重点领域,而不适合开展全面反击。

关键词: 中美贸易战, 贸易反制措施, 投入占用产出技术

Abstract:

The rapid development of economic and trade relations has brought huge benefits to China and the US. However, as the new US president took office, Sino-US trade is facing severe challenges. Chinese economy and employment status may suffer substantial nega-tive impacts if the United States raises tariffs extensively, or provokes more frequent trade frictions. China should prepare itself well for the potential aggravation of trade protectionist sentiment. This paper analyzes four actionable trade countermeasures against the United States, including reducing imports of all US goods and services, cutting orders for Boeing airplanes, reducing imports of US soybeans and restricting the number of Chinese tourists to the US. These countermeasures' impacts on US economy and employment are measured u-sing the US non-competitive input-occupancy-output table in 2015. Considering the impacts and feasibilities of the four countermeasures, we recommend that Chinese trade countermeasures against the United States should focus on some key products rather than aim at all commodities.

Key words: China-US trade war, trade countermeasures, input-occupancy-output model