关键词: 消费结构, 重点消费系数, 投入产出分析, 需求拉动模型

Abstract:

As China's economy steps into the new normal era, consumption has become a new growth area and driving force of the econ-omy. Urban residents are important consumers and the evolution of their consumption structure bears heavily on how China's industrial structure should be adjusted. Classic demand pull models of input and output only consider changes of total consumption at large in the study of impacts of final consumption. However, they assume the consumption structure remains the same as that concluded from the lat-est survey and this would lead to severe simulation bias in an economic restructuring period. This paper deeply analyzes the basic charac-teristics of the spatial and temporal variation of key consumption coefficients of urban residents. Furthermore, several influencing factors are selected to conduct a panel regression of the key consumption coefficients in accordance with consumption theories, and some factors with significant explanatory power are obtained. This paper simulates the pulling effects of consumption of urban residents in 2015, based on constructed models. Firstly, regression model is adopted to get predictive values of the key coefficients. Then, the consumption struc-ture of urban residents in 2015 is modified according the above-mentioned. Finally, this paper applies demand pull model to the modified consumption structure as a way of calculating the pulling effects of the consumption of urban residents on various industries. Compared with the measured value of total output which still uses the traditional consumption structure of 2012, the result indicates significant differences. Clearly, the application of wrong assumptions in consumption structure will markedly underestimate the pulling effect on the total output.

Key words: consumption structure, key consumption coefficients, analysis of input-output, demand pull model