The Effects of Poverty Gap and Interest Rate on Consumption——Analysis Based on Wealth Effect

Abstract

Abstract:

With the spirit of capitalism and life expectancy, this paper considers the consumers' inter-temporal optimal consumption path. Theoretical findings are: (1) the consumption growth rate and the average propensity of wealth to consume are positively correlated;(2) the interest rate has a negative or no effect on consumption growth rate when consumers hate risks and care about social status;(3) the coefficient between the ratio of income to wealth and the consumption growth rate is negative when consumers are risk averse. The empirical analysis, according to 24 Chinese provinces' panel data during the period of 1996 to 2012, provides the evidence for theoretical results from two dimensions of region and time. The results generate a number of testable implications for stimulating consumption.

Key words: average propensity to consume, interest rate, consumption growth rate, wealth effect

Wu Kun, Wu Weixing, Jiang Tao. The Effects of Poverty Gap and Interest Rate on Consumption——Analysis Based on Wealth Effect[J]. , 2015, 27(8): 3-12.

References

[1] 王小鲁,樊纲,刘鹏.中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性[J]. 经济研究, 2009,44(1):4-16
[2] 邹卫星,房林.中国为什么会发生投资消费失衡?[J]. 管理世界, 2008,(12):20-50
[3] Jin Y., Li H. B., Wu B. Z. Income Inequality, Consumption, and Social-Status Seeking[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2011,39(2):191-204
[4] 陈斌开.收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究[J]. 南开经济研究, 2012,(1):33-49
[5] 王宋涛,吴超林.中国居民收入不平等的宏观消费效应: 模型、方法与数据[J]. 经济评论, 2013,184(6):34-43
[6] 李军.收入差距对消费需求影响的定量分析[J]. 数量经济与技术经济研究, 2003,20(9):5-11
[7] 方福前.中国居民消费需求不足原因分析[J]. 中国社会科学, 2009,(2):68-82
[8] 赵华春,Jeffrey F.收入、物价和利率对我国城镇居民消费水平影响研究[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2013,32(2):211-220
[9] 张五六.物价、利率与收入对居民消费需求影响研究[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2010,29(4):662-669
[10] Modigliani F., Cao S. L. The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 2004,42(1):145-170
[11] Chao C. C., Laffargue J. P., Yu E. The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis: A Revaluation[J]. China Economic Review, 2011,22(1):108-120
[12] Wei S. J., Zhang X. B. The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2011,119(3):511-564
[13] Du Q. Y., Wei S. J. A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2013,91(2):275-289
[14] 陈斌开,杨汝岱.土地供给,住房价格和中国城镇居民储蓄[J]. 经济研究, 2013,48(1)110-122
[15] 谢洁玉,吴斌珍,李宏斌等.中国城市房价与居民消费[J]. 金融研究, 2012,33(6):13-27
[16] Wan J. M. Household Savings and Housing Prices in China[J]. The World Economy, 2015,38(1):172-192
[17] Wang X., Wen Y. Can Rising Housing Prices Explain China's High Household Saving Rate?[R]. Federal Reserve Bnak of St. Louis Review, 2011
[18] Cocco F., Francisco J. G. Longevity Risk, Retirement Savings, and Financial Innovation[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2012,103(3):507-529
[19] Li G., Gong G., Michael H., et al. Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2015,188(2):514-525
[20] Skinner J. The Effect of Increased Longevity on Capital Accumulation[J]. American Economic Review, 1985,75(5):1143-1150
[21] 张继海,臧旭恒.寿命不确定与流动性约束下的居民消费和储蓄行为研究[J]. 经济学动态, 2008,(2):41-46
[22] Liu S. G., Hu A. G. Household Savings in China: The Keynesian Hypothesis, Life-Cycle Hypothesis, and Precautionary Saving Theory[J]. The Developing Economies, 2013,51(4):360-387
[23] 范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J]. 人口研究, 2012,36(4):18-28
[24] Wirl F. The Ramsey Model Revisited: The Optimal of Cyclical Consumption and Growth[J]. Journal of Economics, 1994,60(1):81-98
[25] Zou H. F. The Spirit of Capitalism and Long-Run Growth[J]. European Journal of Political Economy, 1994,10(2):297-293
[26] Bakshi S., Chen Z. W. The Spirit of Capitalism and Stock-Market Prices[J]. The American Economic Review, 1996,86(1):133-157
[27] Dreyer K. J., Schneider J., Smith W. T. Saving-Based Asset-Pricing[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013,37(9):3704-3715
[28] Luo Y. L., Smith W. T., Zou H. F. The Spirit of Capitalism, Precautionary Savings, and Consumption[J]. The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009,41(23):543-554
[29] 王高望,赵晓军.财富效应、金融开放与长期增长[J]. 经济科学, 2014,(2):34-43
[30] 杨义群,吴良欢,张火法.Gompertz曲线与logistic增长曲线之比较[J]. 生物数学学报, 1996,11(3):166-168
[31] 吴晓明,吴栋.我国城镇居民平均消费倾向与收入分配状况关系的实证研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(5):22-32
[32] 吴卫星,俆芊,白晓辉.中国居民家庭负债决策的群体差异比较研究[J]. 财经研究, 2013,39(3):19-29
[33] 吴卫星,张琳琬.家庭收入与财富分布: 基于中国居民家庭微观调查的实证分析[J]. 东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版), 2015,(1):62-69
[34] 徐迎军,李东.我国住宅市场财富效应研究[J]. 管理评论, 2011,23(1):14-20
[35] 魏先华,张艳,吴卫星等.社会保障的改善对我国居民家庭消费-投资选择的影响研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2013,43(2):29-39
[36] 梅娟,范金,胡汉辉.浙江城镇居民收入差距与消费行为差异性研究[J]. 管理评论, 2005,17(10):55-62