Abstract: In China the contradiction between the economic development driven by energy consumption and the environmental governance has become so sharp that the economy-energy-environment (3E) system has to be developed in a coordinated and coupling manner to effectively promote the transformation toward green and low-carbon economy. In view of this, this paper uses China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018 to measure the coupling coordination degree of the 3E system in 29 provinces and municipalities (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Tibet, and Yunnan) using the coupling coordination degree and spatial panel model, examines the dynamic evolution law and spatial spillover effects and conducts accurate identification and policy discussions on the influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of the 3E system. The results show that although the coupling coordination degree of China's provincial 3E system has improved, the "polarization" has intensified. Overall, the evolution presents the agglomeration characteristics of positive spatial correlation. The positive externalities of green investment and human capital improvement can effectively promote the coupling and coordinated development of the 3E system. The rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization and the structural imbalance of social investment have become important factors that inhibit the coordinated development of the 3E system.

Key words: economy-energy-environment system, coupling coordination development, spatial panel model, spillover effect