Abstract: Finding out the relationship between housing prices, land and public services can effectively guide public services to make up for shortcomings, expand supply and improve quality, and help solve livelihood issues and promote social equity. Based on the data of 284 cities in China, this paper analyzes the impact of land transfer on the supply structure of public services on the basis of measuring the level of urban public services, studies the capitalization effect of public services on housing prices by using the spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression model, and finally explores the impact of land supply on the capitalization level of public services. The study finds that under the dual incentives of fiscal decentralization and official promotion, the fiscal expenditure of local governments is more inclined to economic public services; public services have a significant capitalization effect on housing prices, which fluctuates in a trend of first rising and then falling, indicating that there is a nonlinear relationship between the level of public services and the effectiveness of capitalization, and the spatial distribution pattern is high in the south and low in the north. Further research shows that the increase in land supply can effectively reduce the capitalization effect of public services; the biased expenditure of transfer income affects the structure of public service supply and the change of land supply, so an increase or decrease in the level of capitalization become the two ways for land transfer to affect the capitalization of public services. We should establish a land supply system that is "linked to people and land" as soon as possible, actively explore financial tools for the secondary capture of land value, improve the performance appraisal system, solve the spatial mismatch between land supply and demand and the financial difficulties of local governments from the source.

Key words: land transfer, public services, capitalization