Abstract: Regional logistics demand forecasting is the precondition of regional logistics planning and decision making. It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, improvements on the prediction method in recent years have been insignificant and current statistical prediction methods often suffer from low precision and poor interpretation problems. Because of these flaws, the current methods fail not only at theoretical generalization of prediction models, but also at effective explanation of the modeling results. What prior studies fundamentally neglected is the influence of logistics radiation-the impact of "location" on the regional logistics development. Our paper is able to advance previous modeling efforts by using the gravity model in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, building a regional logistics gravity model, and taking city of Erdos as the research object. This study identifies the major industrial activities that are associated with large number of cargo flows, and further predicts the static logistic flows of the Erdos and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can influence the regional logistics demands, this study establishes a logistics demands potential model based on spatial economic principles, and advances modeling efforts on logistics demands prediction from simple statistical perspective to a comprehensive model with new application of spatial and regional economics.

Key words: spatial economy, gravity model, Reilly law, demand forecast