Assessment of Indirect Economic Loss of Flood Disaster Based on Multi-regional CGE Model: A Case of Yangtze River Delta Basin

Abstract

Abstract:

A comprehensive analysis about economic loss of floods on various sub-administrative districts within the region can provide scientific basis for the development of accurate disaster management policy and flood mitigation measures. Taking the Yangtze River Delta (the "Yangtze Delta") as an example, the paper establishes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, carries out an in-depth analysis on the space and industrial characteristics of economic impacts of floods in 2011 in the Yangtze Delta on Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, meanwhile, an indirect impact factor is constructed to reflect the extent of indirect impacts of floods on different regions and sectors within the region. The results show that the extent of economic impacts of floods on such 3 provinces is significantly different, agriculture and real estate are the industries which receive the largest impacts, from the aspect of impact degree, the impact degree of flood on Shanghai is higher than that on Jiangsu and Zhejiang, while for the food manufacturing and processing industry and the textile industry, the impact degree is higher than that in other industries. This paper argues that the multi-regional CGE model is able to quantitatively assess the indirect impacts of flood on regional economy and what's more, it is able to accurately reflect the regional and industrial characteristics of such indirect impacts within the region.

Key words: flood, Yangtze Delta, multi-regional CGE model, indirect economic loss, indirect impact factor

Jiang Ling, Zhang Wei, Liu Yu. Assessment of Indirect Economic Loss of Flood Disaster Based on Multi-regional CGE Model: A Case of Yangtze River Delta Basin[J]. , 2016, 28(6): 25-31.

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