Analysis and Forecast of Aviation Fuel Consumption in China

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, a multi-dimensional forecast for China's aviation fuel consumption is processed to confirm that although aviation fuel efficiency will improve in future, China aviation fuel consumption still rise significantly because of the increasing demand for air transport. There is few literature researching forecast methods of direct explanation and decomposition analysis for the future aviation fuel consumption. Based on a structural decomposition with indirect forecast, aviation fuel consumption is decomposed into efficient factors and total factors (aviation fuel efficiency and total turnover of aeronautical transport). The core influencing factors of these two indexes are selected by path analysis. These two indexes are analyzed and forecast by using univariate and multivariate models (ETS/ARIMA model and Bayesian multivariate regression). Finally, combined forecast of aviation fuel consumption demand is analyzed by integrating the above two results. The results show that route flight carrying rate elasticity of aviation fuel efficiency is 0.8%. Urbanization rate elasticity of aviation total turnover is 3.8% and per capital GDP elasticity is 0.4%. At the end of 2015, China aviation fuel consumption will increase up to 28 million tons, and 50 million tons in 2020.

Key words: aviation fuel demand, aviation fuel efficiency, ETS, ARIMA, Bayes

Chai Jian, Zhang Zhongyu, Li Xin, Wang Shouyang. Analysis and Forecast of Aviation Fuel Consumption in China[J]. , 2016, 28(1): 11-21,41.

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