中国房地产市场系统复杂性特征研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 房地产市场的异常波动和经济政策调控对房地产市场影响的不确定性突显，引起了政府和学者的高度重视，本文基于复杂性科学理论，运用关联维检验、李雅普诺夫指数检验、耗散熵值法和R／ S分析法，研究中国房地产市场系统复杂性特征。研究表明，中国房地产市场具有“尖峰厚尾”的非线性特征以及内在随机性和初值敏感性的混沌特征；在货币政策作用下，房地产市场处于有序状态，具有耗散结构的特征，并且房地产市场具有长期记忆性特征和自相似性的分形结构特征。因此，中国房地产市场自身无法实现有序状况，需要结合持续性的货币政策，以实现房地产市场的健康有序发展。

关键词: 房地产市场, 非线性, 复杂性, 货币政策

Abstract: The abnormal fluctuations of the real estate market and the uncertainty of the impact of economic policy adjustments on the real estate market have drawn great attention of the government and scholars. Based on the theory of complexity science, this paper uses complexity methods to study the complexity characteristics of China's real estate market by correlation dimension tests, Lyapunov index tests, dissipative entropy method and R/S analysis method. The results imply that China's real estate system has the non-linear characteristics of "spikes and thick tails" and the chaotic characteristics of inherent randomness and sensitivity to initial values. Moreover, under the monetary policy, the real estate system is in an orderly state, with the characteristics of dissipative structure, long-term memory and self-similar fractal structure. Therefore, China's real estate system cannot achieve an orderly situation by itself, and it is necessary to combine with the continuous monetary policy regulation to achieve a healthy and orderly development of the real estate market.

Key words: real estate system, nonlinearity, complexity, monetary policy

张品一, 杨娟妮. 中国房地产市场系统复杂性特征研究[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(7): 47-56.

Zhang Pinyi, Yang Juanni. An Empirical Study on the Complexity of China's Real Estate Market[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(7): 47-56.

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