碳排放权交易促进地区产业结构优化升级了吗？

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 当前中国正处于经济增速放缓与环境治理加速的双重考验时期，产业结构优化升级成为解决这一系列问题的有效手段。本文采用中国31个省份2005—2016年面板数据，采用双重差分法检验碳排放权交易对地区产业结构优化升级的净效应。研究表明：碳排放权交易有利于地区产业结构优化升级，其对地区产业结构高级化的促进作用远大于对地区产业结构合理化的抑制作用；碳排放权交易通过提升地区技术创新水平和推进地区产业演进促进产业结构高级化，但无法优化地区产出结构，也不能有效促进投入结构与产出结构的耦合，因而不能有效提升地区产业结构合理化水平；由于市场化水平和资源禀赋的差异，碳排放权交易的产业结构优化升级效应具有明显的区域异质性，其促进了东部地区产业结构优化升级，但对中西部地区产业结构优化升级作用却有限；碳排放权交易迫使试点地区部分污染企业向邻近省份转移，还吸引了邻近省份相关产业更多的资本和人才等优质资源，短期内不利于邻近省份产业结构优化升级。基于市场机制的碳排放权交易为地区产业结构优化升级提供了一条可行路径，中国应更加积极地推进碳排放权交易市场建设，倒逼企业低碳转型，进而实现产业结构优化升级，跨越“中等收入陷阱”。

关键词: 碳排放权交易, 产业结构优化升级, 双重差分法, 区域异质性, 外部性

Abstract: At present, China is challenged by economic slowdown and worsening environmental pollution, so a logical way to solve the resultant problems is to optimize and upgrade industrial structure. This paper uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2016, and applies the Difference in Difference (DID) method to test the net effect of carbon emission trading scheme on the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure. The result shows that, carbon emission trading scheme is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure and its promoting effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure is far greater than its inhibiting effect on the rationalization of regional industrial structure. Further mechanistic tests shows that carbon emission trading can promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure by enhancing regional technological innovation and promoting regional industrial evolution, but it can not optimize regional output structure, nor can it effectively promote the coupling between input structure and output structure, so it cannot effectively improve the rationalization level of regional industrial structure. Due to the differences in marketization level and resource endowment, the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure of carbon emission trading has obvious regional heterogeneity. It promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in the eastern region, but has a limited effect in the central and western regions. Carbon emission trading forces some polluting enterprises in pilot areas to transfer to neighboring provinces, and attracts more capital, talents and other high-quality resources from related industries in neighboring provinces, which is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring provinces in the short term. The carbon emission trading based on market mechanisms provides a feasible path for the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure. China should more actively push forward the construction of the carbon emission trading market, force enterprises to implement low-carbon transformation, so as to achieve the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and overcome the "Middle Income Trap".

Key words: the carbon emission trading scheme, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, DID, regional heterogeneity, externality

刘满凤, 程思佳. 碳排放权交易促进地区产业结构优化升级了吗？[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(7): 33-46.

Liu Manfeng, Cheng Sijia. Does the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme Promote the Optimization and Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure?[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(7): 33-46.

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