管理评论

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 235-246.

• 物流与供应链管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国各省域口岸进出境运量的空间统计分析

朱振1, 扈瑞鹏2   

  1. 1. 国家口岸管理办公室, 北京 100730;
    2. 中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-24 出版日期:2018-08-28 发布日期:2018-08-31
  • 作者简介:朱振,国家口岸管理办公室副处长,博士后;扈瑞鹏,中国人民大学统计学院,博士。

The Spatial Statistical Analysis of Inbound and Outbound Cargo of China at Provincial Level

Zhu Zhen1, Hu Ruipeng2   

  1. 1. National Port Management Office of China, Beijing 100730;
    2. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
  • Received:2016-03-24 Online:2018-08-28 Published:2018-08-31

PDF (PC)

639

摘要：

口岸是发展边境贸易和跨国合作的主要通道，在"一带一路"战略背景下分析中国口岸进出境运量的时空格局具有重要的现实意义。本文运用探索性空间统计分析方法，分港口、陆运和航空口岸研究2007-2015年各省域口岸进出境运量的空间差异和动态变化。结果表明：2007-2015年间各省域口岸进出境货运量整体保持较快增长，不同省份间存在明显差异，东部沿海省份口岸进出境运量显著高于中西部地区；细分口岸类型，水运港口进出境运量存在空间相关性，且集聚效应不断增强，而航空口岸、陆运口岸的进出境运量没有显著的空间相关性；水运口岸进出境运量集聚在长三角、环渤海和东南沿海地区，航空口岸进出境运量集聚在北上广地区，陆运口岸进出境运量集聚在新疆和内蒙古等沿边地区。

关键词: 口岸进出境运量, 空间相关性, Moran's I散点图, LISA

Abstract:

Port is the main channel for the development of border trade and transnational cooperation. It is of great practical significance to analyze temporal and spatial pattern of inbound and outbound cargo in the context of "the Belt and Road Initiatives" strategy. This paper uses exploration statistical analysis to analyze spatial difference and dynamic change of provincial inbound and outbound cargo of China in the period of 2007-2015, based on the division of waterway ports, land ports and air ports. The results reveal that:In 2007-2015, the overall amount of provincial inbound and outbound cargo inside province maintained rapid growth, with significant differences between distinct provinces, inbound and outbound cargo of eastern coastal provinces were significantly higher than central and western regions; In the respect of port classification, there were spatial correlations among the amount of inbound and outbound cargo in waterway ports and the agglomeration effect is constantly increasing, while there were no obvious spatial correlations among those of land ports as well as air ports; The amount of inbound and outbound cargo of waterway ports aggregated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim and southeast coast regions, the amount of inbound and outbound cargo of air ports aggregated in region of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and the amount of inbound and outbound cargo of land ports aggregated in border regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.

Key words: amount of port's inbound and outbound cargo, spatial correlation, Moran's I scatterplot, LISA