“一带一路”倡议下省际对外直接投资能提升技术创新效率吗？——基于中国全球投资追踪数据的实证检验

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “一带一路”倡议下的对外直接投资（OFDI)和成熟产业转移是我国各省份技术创新的动力来源。以要素配置为视角，本文基于2005—2019年中国全球投资追踪数据（CGIT)手工整理得到的省际对外投资数据和DEA-Malmquist指数刻画的技术创新效率指标，检验“一带一路”倡议下省际对外投资影响技术创新效应及其作用机制。研究发现，“一带一路”倡议有效提升了我国的技术创新效率，加速技术创新动力结构转变，但也加剧了技术进步衰减。其中，东部省份的技术进步削弱效应十分显著，同时西部省份则受益于技术效率的提升。“一带一路”倡议推动各省份产业升级，但经济结构的快速调整并不能带来技术进步和技术效率的提升；“一带一路”倡议加速各省份人力资本要素跨过技术吸收“门槛”，人力资本促进各省份的技术进步和技术效率的提升；各省份研发资本要素的有效供给不足成为技术进步的最大阻碍。本研究从要素配置视角为各省份参与“一带一路”建设和高质量发展提供经验证据与政策思考。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 对外直接投资, 技术创新效率, 技术创新, 调节效应

Abstract: This paper explores the technology spillover effect of outward foreign investment (OFDI) under the Belt and Road Initiative on Chinese provinces. Using the provincial OFDI data manually generated from China Global Investment Tracker and DEA-Malmquist indicators, we test the causal effect and mechanism behind OFDI under the Initiative on technology growth and technical efficiency, the two main invention drivers. Results show that under the Initiative, OFDI promotes technical efficiency, weakens technology growth, and structurally changes the way of provincial innovation. Specifically, technological growth in eastern provinces declines significantly, while western provinces benefit mainly from the promotion of technical efficiency. Although the Initiative promotes provincial industrial upgrading, fast economic restructuring couldn’t simultaneously enhance technological growth and improve technical efficiency. Based on factor allocation effect, provincial human capital grows significantly, reaching the threshold of technological absorption, and promotes technological innovation. Lack of R&D expenses seriously hinders technology growth. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy implications for provinces to effectively participate in the Initiative.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, outward foreign direct investment, technical efficiency, technological growth, moderating effect

刘志东, 惠诗濛, 荆中博. “一带一路”倡议下省际对外直接投资能提升技术创新效率吗？——基于中国全球投资追踪数据的实证检验[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(2): 97-110.

Liu Zhidong, Hui Shimeng, Jing Zhongbo. Has Provincial OFDI under the “Belt and Road” Initiative Promoted Technological Innovation Efficiency?—Empirical Study Based on China Global Investment Tracker[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(2): 97-110.

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