房价上涨对实体企业投资行为的影响:基于产业链视角

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 房地产市场的繁荣与实体经济部分行业，特别是产业链下游行业的投资低迷形成了鲜明对比。本文利用上市企业数据，从产业链视角揭示了房价上涨对实体企业投资行为的差异化影响。研究表明，房价上涨会对实体企业投资产生挤出效应，其影响程度与企业所处行业的产业链位置有关，引起上下游行业间的投资失衡。2010年以前，房价上涨对产业链上游企业的投资挤出效应较强;2010年后，对下游企业的挤出效应较强。进一步研究发现，行业的所有制结构差异放大了房价上涨对企业投资的差异化挤出效应，而房地产调控政策能部分消减挤出效应。本文基于产业链视角，证实了房价上涨是实体经济投资行为异化的重要影响因素，并为政府制定促进房地产市场健康发展、提升实体经济产业链现代化水平，提供了可操作的政策建议。

关键词: 实体企业, 房价, 产业链, 挤出效应

Abstract: The boom in the real estate market sharply contrasts with the sluggish investment in some sectors of the real economy, espe-cially the downstream industrial chain. Using data from listed companies, this paper reveals the differential impact of rising house prices on the real sector's investment behavior from the industrial chain perspective. The study shows that rising house prices have a crowding-out effect on the investment of the real sector, with the degree of impact depending on where the real sector is located in the industry chain, and can cause investment imbalance between upstream and downstream industries. Rising house prices have a strong investment crowding-out effect on upstream sectors of the industrial chain before 2010 and on downstream sectors after 2010. Further study finds that the difference in the ownership structure of sectors amplifies the differential crowding out effect of rising house prices on firms' invest-ment. At the same time, real estate regulation policies can partially decrease the crowding-out effect. Based on the industry chain per-spective, this paper confirms that rising house prices are an important influencing factor for the heterization of investment behavior in the real economy and provides actionable policy recommendations for the government to formulate policies to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and enhance the modernization of the industrial chain in the real economy.

Key words: the real sector, housing prices, industrial chain, crowding-out effect

许士杰, 董纪昌, 董志, 李秀婷. 房价上涨对实体企业投资行为的影响:基于产业链视角[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(5): 40-48.

Xu Shijie, Dong Jichang, Dong Zhi, Li Xiuting. The Impact of Rising Housing Prices on the the Investment of the Real Sector: Based on the Perspective of Industrial Chain[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(5): 40-48.

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