“双循环”新格局下贸易摩擦冲击对全球价值链重构影响效应研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文在“双循环”新发展格局下，通过匹配链接GTAP模型与全球价值链核算分解模型，并结合社会网络分析方法，综合考察中国遭受贸易摩擦冲击对全球价值链重构的影响效应。研究发现：贸易摩擦对全球价值链重构的影响体现在全球价值链嵌入与利益重配、生产链条回缩、产业转移与产业升级、网络变迁与区域集聚等方面；贸易摩擦冲击在需求侧和供给侧共同抑制了中国参与全球价值链活动，造成企业进口中间品需求和国内中间品需求大幅萎缩，损害与弱化了其全球价值链贸易收益及生产活动参与程度，且产业层面上下游关联引致的负面波及效应显著；同链共振效应抑制了贸易壁垒实施方及非直接关联的第三方对中国的中间品出口国内增加值及复杂GVC参与度，但日本、韩国及东盟国家承接了较多中间品贸易转移；贸易摩擦冲击造成了中间品贸易网络的整体性萎缩，改变了原有的网络社区结构。

关键词: 双循环, 贸易壁垒, 贸易摩擦, 全球价值链重构, 双反

Abstract: Under the new development pattern of dual circulation, this paper takes China as a sample to investigate the mechanism and effect of trade friction on global value chain (GVC) restructuring by matching GTAP model and GVC accounting decomposition model and using social network analysis method. The study finds that the effects of trade friction on the GVC restructuring are mainly reflected in retraction of GVC production chain, embedding and profits distribution reconstruction, industrial transfer and upgrading, transition of GVC production network, and regional agglomeration and block evolution; and the trade frictions against China has inhibited China’s participation in GVC on both the demand side and the supply side, resulting in a sharp contraction of the enterprises import and domestic intermediate demand, and a great damage on China’s trade income and participation in GVC. The negative effect caused by the upstream and downstream industrial associations is significant. The resonance effect in GVC inhibits trade barrier initiators and non-directly-related third parties from participating in domestic value-addition and complex GVC in China. However, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN have undertaken more intermediates trade transfers; the trade friction has also caused an overall contraction of the GVC trade network, and changed the community structure of the original network.

Key words: dual circulation, tariff barriers, trade friction, GVC restructuring, anti-dumping and anti-subsidies

乔小勇, 李星瑶, 祝合良. “双循环”新格局下贸易摩擦冲击对全球价值链重构影响效应研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(2): 27-39.

Qiao Xiaoyong, Li Xingyao, Zhu Heliang. Study on the Effect of Trade Frictions against China on the Restructuring of Global Value Chains under the New Pattern of Dual Circulation[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(2): 27-39.

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