人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的非线性影响——基于PSTR模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文在测算2001—2019年我国人民币实际有效汇率的基础上，利用PSTR模型分析人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的非线性影响，并研究其作用机制。研究发现：(1)人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的影响表现出非线性特征：当汇率较低时汇率贬值的促进作用较弱，而当汇率较高时该作用较强。(2)实际有效汇率贬值通过国际贸易、FDI和居民消费三种主要渠道影响经济增长，其中，国际贸易和居民消费发挥正向中介效应，而FDI表现为负向效应。相较于低汇率水平而言，高汇率水平下国际贸易对经济增长的促进作用更强，而FDI和居民消费的促进作用较弱。(3)从区域差异性来看，汇率贬值对东部地区经济增长的促进作用要强于中西部地区；从具体影响渠道来看，与中西部地区相比，东部地区国际贸易在汇率与经济增长的关系中具有更强的中介效应，而FDI和消费的中介效应则较弱。

关键词: 人民币实际有效汇率, 经济增长, 中介效应, PSTR

Abstract: Based on the measurement of China’s RMB real effective exchange rate from 2001 to 2019, this paper uses the PSTR model to analyze the nonlinear impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth, and studies its mechanism. The research findings are as follows. (1) The impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on economic growth exhibits a non-linear characteristic: when the exchange rate is low, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation is weak, while when the exchange rate is high, the effect is strong. (2) The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate affects economic growth through three main channels: international trade, FDI and household consumption. International trade and household consumption have a positive intermediary effect, while FDI has a negative effect. Compared to low exchange rate levels, international trade has a stronger promoting effect on economic growth at high exchange rate levels, while FDI and household consumption have a weaker promoting effect. (3) From the perspective of regional differences, the promotion effect of exchange rate depreciation on economic growth in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions; from the perspective of specific impact channels, compared with the central and western regions, international trade in the eastern region has a stronger intermediary effect in the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth, while the intermediary effect of FDI and consumption is weaker.

Key words: real effective exchange rate, economic growth, mediating effect, PSTR

杨友才, 李顺, 牛晓童. 人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的非线性影响——基于PSTR模型[J]. 管理评论, 2023, 35(4): 66-78.

Yang Youcai, Li Shun, Niu Xiaotong. The Nonlinear Effect of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Based on PSTR Model[J]. Management Review, 2023, 35(4): 66-78.

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