业绩预告及时性与可靠性的权衡——基于经济政策不确定性视角

管理评论 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 268-282.

业绩预告及时性与可靠性的权衡——基于经济政策不确定性视角

宋云玲¹, 宋衍蘅²

1. 内蒙古大学经济管理学院, 呼和浩特 010021;
2. 北京外国语大学国际商学院, 北京 100089

收稿日期:2018-06-06 出版日期:2022-01-28 发布日期:2022-02-25
通讯作者: 宋衍蘅(通讯作者),北京外国语大学国际商学院副教授。
作者简介:宋云玲,内蒙古大学经济管理学院副教授。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71762023；72072015）；浙江省自然科学基金项目（LY16G020008）。

Trade-off between the Timeliness and Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts: Perspective from Economic Policy Uncertainty

Song Yunling¹, Song Yanheng²

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010021;
2. International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing 100089

Received:2018-06-06 Online:2022-01-28 Published:2022-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文以A股公司为样本，分析了经济政策不确定性对业绩预告及时性与可靠性的影响。本文发现，当公司可以选择业绩预告披露时间时，管理层会权衡及时性与可靠性，在经济政策不确定性较高时推迟业绩预告的披露。当公司不能选择业绩预告披露时间时，经济政策不确定性越高，业绩预告的准确度越低。进一步的分析显示，经济政策不确定性影响业绩预告准确度的路径是乐观偏差。本文还发现，如果公司的业绩预测难度比较高，那么，经济政策不确定性对业绩预告准确度的影响更强烈；但是，管理层业绩预测能力却并不会对经济政策不确定性与业绩预告准确度之间的关系产生显著影响。本文认为，监管部门应考虑赋予公司一定的披露时间选择权，引导管理层根据宏观经济环境和企业基本面等因素在一定范围内自主选择披露时间。

关键词: 业绩预告及时性, 业绩预告准确度, 管理层选择权, 经济政策不确定性, 路径分析

Abstract: Based on A-Share companies, this paper examines the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (hereafter as EPU) on the timeliness and credibility of management earnings forecasts (hereafter as MEFs).The results indicate that when management can have discretion on the timing of MEFs, they tend to postpone the timing of MEFs when EPU is higher. Therefore, EPU has no significant impact on the accuracy of MEFs in that case. Otherwise, the accuracy of MEFs is negatively associated with EPU. Further analysis shows that the optimistic bias of MEFs is the path that EPU affects the accuracy of MEFs. What’s more, the impacts of EPU on the accuracy of MEFs are most profound for companies whose performance is of low predictability. But the forecasting ability of management has no significant impact on the relationship between EPU and the accuracy of MEFs. Our results indicate that regulators should consider of giving companies more choices and urging management to disclose MEFs according to macro-economic factors and firm fundamentals.

Key words: timeliness of MEFs, accuracy of MEFs, management discretion, economic policy uncertainty, path analysis

宋云玲, 宋衍蘅. 业绩预告及时性与可靠性的权衡——基于经济政策不确定性视角[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(1): 268-282.

Song Yunling, Song Yanheng. Trade-off between the Timeliness and Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts: Perspective from Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(1): 268-282.

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