分析师期望落差会促进战略变革吗？——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 266-277.

分析师期望落差会促进战略变革吗？——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据

钟熙^1,2, 宋铁波^1,2, 陈伟宏^1,2, 唐元佑^1,2

1. 华南理工大学工商管理学院, 广州 510640;
2. 华南理工大学中国企业战略研究中心, 广州 510640

收稿日期:2017-05-24 出版日期:2020-02-29 发布日期:2020-03-07
通讯作者: 宋铁波(通讯作者),华南理工大学工商管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士
作者简介:钟熙,华南理工大学工商管理学院博士研究生;陈伟宏,华南理工大学工商管理学院博士研究生;唐元佑,华南理工大学工商管理学院硕士研究生。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目（15AGL003）；教育部重大攻关项目（15JZD020）；华南理工大学中央高校基本科研业务费社会科学类项目（2015ZDXMPY02）。

Does Analyst Expectation Deficit Stimulate Strategic Change?——Evidence from China's Listed Manufacturing Companies

Zhong Xi^1,2, Song Tiebo^1,2, Chen Weihong^1,2, Tang Yuanyou^1,2

1. School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640;
2. Research Center of Chinese Corporate Strategy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640

Received:2017-05-24 Online:2020-02-29 Published:2020-03-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

分析师期望落差会促进战略变革吗?为回答该问题，在考虑CEO预期任期调节效应，以及CEO预期任期与CEO持股联合效应的基础上，本文探究了分析师期望落差对战略变革的影响。基于2008-2015年中国制造业上市公司经验数据，本文研究发现：企业未达成分析师的业绩期望时，分析师期望落差对战略变革起到了正向促进作用。进一步分析后发现：随着CEO预期任期的延长，分析师期望落差对战略变革的正向促进作用将增强；随着CEO持股比例的提高，CEO预期任期对分析师期望落差与战略变革之间关系的增强效应将被强化。本文的研究发现有助于推进文献从外部视角来理解战略变革。

关键词: 分析师期望落差, CEO预期任期, CEO持股, 战略变革

Abstract:

Does analyst expectation deficit stimulate strategic change? To answer this question, this study investigates the impact of analyst expectation deficit on a firm's strategic change by considering the moderating effect of CEO's tenure expectancy and the combined effects of CEO's tenure expectancy and CEO shareholdings. Hypotheses are tested through the manufacturing companies listed in China from 2008 to 2015. The findings show that:when an enterprise fails to reach the performance target expected by the analyst, analyst expectation deficit will play a positive role in strategic change; when CEO's tenure expectancy increases, the positive influence of analyst expectation deficit in firm's strategic change will strengthen; when CEO shareholdings increase, the facilitating effect of CEO's tenure expectancy on the relationship between analyst expectation deficit and strategic change will be enhanced. The conclusion deepens the understanding of strategic change from an external perspective.

Key words: analyst expectation deficit, CEO's tenure expectancy, CEO shareholdings, strategic change

钟熙, 宋铁波, 陈伟宏, 唐元佑. 分析师期望落差会促进战略变革吗？——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据[J]. , 2020, 32(2): 266-277.

Zhong Xi, Song Tiebo, Chen Weihong, Tang Yuanyou. Does Analyst Expectation Deficit Stimulate Strategic Change?——Evidence from China's Listed Manufacturing Companies[J]. , 2020, 32(2): 266-277.

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