基于金融与实体经济关系的中国金融发展程度测度

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文通过构建带合约机制的动态随机一般均衡模型和向量自回归模型，模拟和分析主要发达国家和金砖五国的金融发展程度，考察中国金融发展水平及其对实体经济的影响。研究结果表明：主要发达国家拥有较好的金融环境，而金砖五国表现出过短的金融传导链条和较低的金融发展程度；中国的金融发展程度并非绝对低水平，且表现出强劲的金融发展潜力；中国需要改善信贷约束、正确权衡监管和成本之间的关系，通过延长实体经济企业与金融部门的资金链条，实现金融体系契合实体经济的发展。

关键词: 金融发展, 信贷约束, 乘数效应, 动态随机一般均衡模型

Abstract:

This paper discusses the financial development level and its impact on the real economy in China through building a DSGE model with contracts and a VAR model of the main developed countries and the BRICS. The results show that:The main developed countries have a better financial environment, while the BRICS shows a short financial transmission chain and a lower financial development degree; the financial development level of China doesn't reach an absolute low, reflecting a strong potential for development in the future; there exits needs to ameliorate the problem of credit constraints, the relationship between the supervision and costs, and hence expand the capital chain between the financial sector and the enterprises in the real economy.

Key words: financial development, credit constraints, multiplier effect, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)

徐淑丹. 基于金融与实体经济关系的中国金融发展程度测度[J]. , 2019, 31(10): 60-71.

Xu Shudan. A Measurement of China Financial Development Level Based on the Relationship between the Finance and the Real Economy[J]. , 2019, 31(10): 60-71.

参考文献

[1] 简泽,干春晖,余典范. 银行部门的市场化、信贷配置与工业重构[J]. 经济研究, 2013,(5):112-127
[2] 陈晓光,张宇麟. 信贷约束、政府消费与中国实际经济周期[J]. 经济研究, 2010,(12):48-59
[3] 陈昆亭,周炎,龚六堂. 信贷周期:中国经济1991-2010[J]. 国际金融研究, 2011,(12):20-28
[4] 汪伟,郭新强,艾春荣. 融资约束、劳动收入份额下降与中国低消费[J]. 经济研究, 2011,(11):100-113
[5] Schumpeter J. A. The Theory of Economic Development:An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest and the Business Cycle[M]. New Jersey:Transaction Publishers (Original in German Published 1911), 1934
[6] Goldsmith R. W. Financial Structure and Development[M]. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1969
[7] McKinnon R. I. Money and Capital in Economic Development[M]. Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press, 1973
[8] Shaw E. S. Financial Deepening in Economic Development[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1973
[9] King R. G., Levine R. Finance and Growth:Schumpeter Might Be Right[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993,108(3):717-737
[10] Allen F., Qian J., Qian M. Law, Finance and Economic Growth in China[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2005,77(1):57-116
[11] Beck T., Lin C., Ma Y. Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach[J]. Journal of Finance, 2014,69(2):763-817
[12] Samargandi N., Fidrmuc J., Ghosh S. Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries[J]. World Development, 2015,68:66-81
[13] 李巍. 金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据[J]. 财经研究, 2007,33(11):41-52
[14] 张鹤,黄琨,姚远. 金融发展、银行资本结构与经济增长内在关联性的实证研究[J]. 经济学动态, 2012,(5):83-87
[15] 胡泽,夏新平,余明桂. 金融发展、流动性与商业信用:基于全球金融危机的实证研究[J]. 南开管理评论, 2013,16(3):4-15
[16] 刘行,叶康涛. 金融发展、产权与企业税负[J]. 管理世界, 2014,(3):41-52
[17] 王永剑,刘春杰. 金融发展对中国资本配置效率的影响及区域比较[J]. 财贸经济, 2011,(3):54-60
[18] 王烨,张玲玲,郭琨,等. 基于SVR的中国金融状况指数研究[J]. 管理评论, 2014,26(5):3-11
[19] 张成思,李雪君. 基于全球视角的中国金融发展指数研究[J]. 金融研究, 2012,(6):54-67
[20] Browne C., Geiger T. The Executive Opinion Survey:Capturing the Views of the Business Community[M]. The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, Geneva:World Economic Forum, 2010
[21] Kydland E. F., Prescott E. C. Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations[J]. Econometrica, 1982,50(6):1345-1370
[22] Long Jr J. B., Plosser C. I. Real Business Cycles[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1983,91(1):39-69
[23] Hansen G. D. Indivisile Labor and the Business Cycle[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1985,16(3):309-328
[24] Blanchard O., Fischer S. Lectures on Macroeconomics[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, 1989
[25] Uhlig H. A. Toolkit for Analysing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1999
[26] Stockman D. A. How to Avoid an Economic Dunkirk[J]. Challenge, 1981,24(1):17-21
[27] Bernanke B. S., Gertler M., Gilchrist S. The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework[A]. Taylor J. B., Woodford M. Handbook of Macroeconomics[C]. Amsterdam:Elsevier, North-Holland, 1999
[28] 金中夏,洪浩,李宏瑾. 利率市场化对货币政策有效性和经济结构调整的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2013,(4):69-82
[29] Ma Y., Li S. Bayesian Estimation of China's Monetary Policy Transparency:A New Keynesian Approach[J]. Economic Modelling, 2015,45:236-248
[30] Smets F., Wouters R. Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles:A Bayesian DSGE Approach[J]. The American Economic Review, 2007,97(3):586-606
[31] Gertler M., Kiyotaki N. Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis[A]. Friedman B. M., Woodford M. Handbook of Monetary Economics[C]. Amsterdam:Elsevier, North-Holland, 2010
[32] Smets F., Wouters R. Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area Business Cycles:A Bayesian DSGE Approach[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005,20(2):161-183
[33] Forni L., Gerali A., Pisani M. The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Consolidations in Euro Area Countries[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 2010,34(9):1791-1812
[34] Liu P., Mumtaz H. Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy:An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011,43(7):1443-1474
[35] Chen X., Macdonald R. Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012,44(6):1091-1116
[36] Hirose Y. Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan:A Bayesian Investigation[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008,40(5):967-999
[37] Tazoe A. Parameter Estimation for the Marxian Optimal Growth Model[J]. World Review of Political Economy, 2011,2(4):635-645
[38] Araújo E. Investment-specific Shocks and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Economies:Evidence from Brazil[J]. Economic Modelling, 2012,29(3):671-678
[39] Da Silva M. S., Divino J. A. The Role of Banking Regulation in an Economy Under Credit Risk and Liquidity Shock[J]. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013,26:266-281
[40] Tapsoba S. J. Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India[J]. Economic Modelling, 2014,43:225-237
[41] Elekdag S., Lalonde R., Laxton D., et al. Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy:A Model-Based Assessment[J]. IMF Staff Papers, Special Global Economy Model Issue, 2008,55(2):297-311
[42] Feldkircher M. A. Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2015,43(3):706-726
[43] Balcilar M., Gupta R., Kotzé K. Forecasting Macroeconomic Data for an Emerging Market with a Nonlinear DSGE Model[J]. Economic Modelling, 2015,44:215-228