管理评论

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 225-232.

• 投入占用产出技术及其应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

固定资本形成内生化的房地产投入占用产出局部闭模型及其应用

陆子含1,2,3, 陈锡康2,3, 高翔1,2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    3. 中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-10 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2018-05-29
  • 作者简介:陆子含,中国科学院大学硕士研究生;陈锡康,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员,博士生导师;高翔,中国科学院大学博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（61273208；71473244）。

Partially Closed Input-occupancy-output Model of the Real Estate with Endogenous Fixed Capital Formation

Lu Zihan1,2,3, Chen Xikang2,3, Gao Xiang1,2,3   

  1. 1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100190;
    3. MADIS, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2017-09-10 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

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摘要：

房地产行业是国民经济的支柱产业,包括房地产建筑业、房地产服务业和房地产土地流转部门三个部分。房地产销售额由房地产产出和土地成本两部分组成。分析可知,通过增加企业、政府和居民收入从而拉动固定资产投资增长,再通过固定资产投资拉动经济增长,是房地产销售影响经济的重要途径。鉴于传统投入产出模型不能对此进行有效刻画,为充分反映房地产与国民经济间的相互联系和促进关系,本文设计和构造了房地产投入占用产出表,提出新的将固定资本形成内生化的投入产出局部闭模型。应用模型测算房地产销售对经济的拉动效应,得出2015年对GDP的完全拉动为13万亿元,得出的测算结果显著大于传统模型,更加符合房地产业对经济增长的实际贡献。

关键词: 房地产投入占用产出表, 固定资本形成内生化, 投入占用产出局部闭模型, 宏观经济效应

Abstract:

The real estate which includes real estate building, real estate service and land circulation, has already become a pillar indus-try of the national economy. Property sales consist of land cost and building value. The study shows that increase in the income of enter-prises, government and residents will lead to the increase of fixed capital investment, and then promote economic growth, which is the major approach for the real estate industries. The traditional input-output model cannot efficiently depict the approach above, in order to fully reflect the interconnections and constructs of the relation between real estate and national economy. This paper designs and creates an input-occupancy-output table of real estate, and then presents a new partially closed input-occupancy-output model with endogenous fixed capital formation. The model is applied to measure the economic pull of property sales and the results suggest that the economic pull was 13 trillion yuan in 2015, which is significantly larger than the traditional models and more realistic.

Key words: input-occupancy-output table of real estate, endogenous fixed capital formation, partially closed input-occupancy-output model, macroeconomic effects