贸易开放如何影响PM2.5——基于淮河两岸供暖政策差异的因果效应研究

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 237-245.

贸易开放如何影响PM2.5——基于淮河两岸供暖政策差异的因果效应研究

代丽华

山东师范大学经济学院, 济南 250358

收稿日期:2016-01-15 出版日期:2017-05-28 发布日期:2017-05-26
作者简介:代丽华,山东师范大学经济学院讲师,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71503281）。

How Trade Openness Affects PM2.5——Causal Effect Studies Based on Heating Policy Differences between the Two Sides of Huai River

Dai Lihua

School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Ji'nan 250358

Received:2016-01-15 Online:2017-05-28 Published:2017-05-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文以中国2013年实施新空气质量标准的74个城市横截面数据为样本，研究贸易开放对PM2.5排放的因果影响程度。为了解决由于污染排放对贸易开放的反向因果偏误，本文使用了Blanchard和Perotti提出的两阶段工具变量方法解决内生性。在第一阶段PM2.5的工具变量选择上，考虑到中国以淮河为界对两岸城市实施不同的集中供暖政策，而集中供暖采用的煤炭燃烧是导致PM2.5排放的主要原因之一，因此选择了各城市距离淮河一线的纬度差作为PM2.5排放的代理变量。实证结果表明PM2.5排放增加会导致外贸依存度显著降低。运用第一阶段回归的残差，作为第二阶段中贸易开放的工具变量来解决反向因果效应，结果显示贸易开放会造成环境质量的恶化。机制分析表明，贸易开放之所以导致环境恶化主要是污染行业的出口造成的。

关键词: 贸易开放, PM2.5, 工具变量, 淮河分界线

Abstract:

This paper estimates the casual effect of trade openness on PM2.5 on the basis of 74 cities' cross-section data. We use the two-stage instrumental variable empirical method raised by Blanchard and Perotti to figure out the reverse causality bias caused by pollution to trade openness. When choosing the IVs for PM2.5 in the first stage regression, we choose the latitude distance between cities and Huai River as the proxy variable of PM2.5 in view of the fact that China's central heating policy applies differently to the two sides of Huai River and coal burning is the main reason of PM2.5. We find that increase in PM2.5 leads to statistically significant decrease in trade-GDP ratio. We use the first stage regression residuals to instrument trade openness in the second stage regression in order to solve the reverse causality effect. The result shows that trade openness is bad for environmental quality. Mechanism analysis shows that exports of pollution intensive sectors lead to the pollution.

Key words: trade openness, PM2.5, instrumental variable, Huai River line

代丽华. 贸易开放如何影响PM2.5——基于淮河两岸供暖政策差异的因果效应研究[J]. , 2017, 29(5): 237-245.

Dai Lihua. How Trade Openness Affects PM2.5——Causal Effect Studies Based on Heating Policy Differences between the Two Sides of Huai River[J]. , 2017, 29(5): 237-245.

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