城市公共交通状况、羊群效应与私家车厂商市场策略

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 220-227.

城市公共交通状况、羊群效应与私家车厂商市场策略

邵晓双¹, 谭德庆²

1. 东北电力大学建筑工程学院, 吉林 132012;
2. 西南交通大学经济管理学院, 成都 610031

收稿日期:2014-12-08 出版日期:2017-01-28 发布日期:2017-03-16
作者简介:邵晓双,东北电力大学建筑工程学院讲师,博士;谭德庆,西南交通大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
基金资助:
东北电力大学博士科研启动基金项目（BSJXM-2016232）。

The Cities' Public Transport Conditions, the Herd Effect and the Marketing Strategy of the Firms of Private Cars

Shao Xiaoshuang¹, Tan Deqing²

1. School of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Northeast Dianli University, Jilin 132012;
2. School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031

Received:2014-12-08 Online:2017-01-28 Published:2017-03-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

结合城市交通拥堵所产生的情绪效用以及私家车消费过程中从众心理所产生的羊群效应，考虑城市公共交通发展对私家车消费的影响，运用微分博弈理论，对私家车厂商的最优动态定价问题进行了研究。通过分析得出，城市公共交通状况的改善存在一个阈值，当改善量超过阈值时，私家车的最优动态定价随着时间不断下降；在合理范围内改善城市公共交通状况，既不会使私家车销售量减少，又能够缓解城市交通拥堵的状况。

关键词: 城市公共交通状况, 城市道路交通状况, 质量差异, 私家车, 微分博弈, 羊群效应

Abstract:

Combined with the emotions arising from the traffic congestion, as well as the herd effect during the private car consumption, from the perspective of the cities' public transport's substitutable, to analyze the impact of the cities' public transport conditions to the marketing strategy of the firms of private cars, a differential game model of two firms offering quality differentiated private cars is built. The results show that a threshold exists in the improvement of cities' public traffic conditions. When the amount of improvement exceeds the threshold, the firms' optimal dynamic pricing of private cars decreases gradually with time; improvement of the public transport condition in a reasonable range, will not reduce private car sales and can ease the situation of cities' traffic congestion.

Key words: the cities' public transport conditions, the cities' traffic conditions, quality differentiation, private car, differential game, the herd effect

邵晓双, 谭德庆. 城市公共交通状况、羊群效应与私家车厂商市场策略[J]. , 2017, 29(1): 220-227.

Shao Xiaoshuang, Tan Deqing. The Cities' Public Transport Conditions, the Herd Effect and the Marketing Strategy of the Firms of Private Cars[J]. , 2017, 29(1): 220-227.

参考文献

[1] 北京的金. 香港公共交通对内地的启示[J]. 资源与人居环境, 2012,8:74-75
[2] 中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2014年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[R]. 2015
[3] 郑瑶,董大勇,朱宏泉. 网络证券信息交流减弱股市羊群效应吗:基于中国证券市场的分析[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(6):58-67
[4] 哀晨,傅强. "T+1"交易制度下非线性证券价格动态模型及实证[J]. 管理科学学报, 2011,14(3):83-96
[5] 吴建祖,辛江龙,贾明琪. 过度反应对IPO抑价影响的实物期权模型及实证研究[J]. 软科学, 2008,22(10):29-33
[6] 许年行,于上尧,伊志宏. 机构投资者羊群行为与股价崩盘风险[J]. 管理世界, 2013,(7):31-43
[7] 李平,曾勇. 基于非理性行为的羊群效应分析:一个简单模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2004,12(3):34-37
[8] Desai P. S., Purohit D. Competition in Durable Goods Markets:The Strategic Consequences of Leasing and Selling[J]. Marketing Science, 1999,18(1):42-58
[9] 邵晓双,谭德庆. 外部性效应对私家车市场租售策略的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(5):105-113
[10] Agrawal V. V., Ferguson M., Toktay L. B., Thomas V. M. Is Leasing Greener than Selling?[J]. Management Science, 2011,57(10):1-11
[11] Runkel M. Optimal Emissions Taxation Under Imperfect Competition in a Durable Good Industry[J]. Bulletin of Economic Research, 2004,56(2):115-132
[12] Desai P. S., Koenigsberg O., Purohit D. The Role of Production Lead Time and Demand Uncertainty in Marketing Durable Goods[J]. Management Science, 2007,53(1):150-158
[13] 田志龙,李春荣,蒋倩,等. 中国汽车市场弱势后入者的经营战略[J]. 管理世界, 2010,(8):139-152
[14] 孙江永,王新华. 产品异质与汽车行业跨国公司进入中国市场的方式选择——基于需求的视角[J]. 管理世界, 2011,(5):99-108
[15] 范群林,邵云飞,唐小我. 中国汽车产业环境技术创新影响因素实证研究[J]. 管理学报, 2012,9(9):1323-1329
[16] 谭德庆,高永全. 耐用品二手市场信息对垄断厂商决策影响研究[J]. 系统工程学报, 2013,28(9):446-453
[17] Xu X., Hopp W. J. A Monopolistic and Oligopolistic Stochastic Flow Revenue Management Model[J]. Operation Research, 2006,54(6):1098-1109
[18] Lin K. Y., Sibdari S. Y. Dynamic Price Competition with Discrete Customer Choices[J]. European Journal of Operation Research, 2009,197(3):969-980
[19] Gallego G., Hu M. Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Assets under Competition[J]. Management Science, 2014,60(5):1241-1259
[20] Perakis G., Sood A. Competitive Multi-period Pricing for Perishable Products:A Robust Optimization Approach[J]. Mathematical Programming, 2006,107(1):295-335
[21] Martínez-de-Albéniz V., Talluri K. Dynamic Price Competition with Fixed Capacities[J]. Management Science, 2011,57(6):1078-1093
[22] Liu Q., Zhang D. Dynamic Pricing Competition with Strategic Customers under Vertical Product Differentiation[J]. Management Science, 2013,59(1):84-101
[23] Chen Y. W., Farias V. F. Simple Policies for Dynamic Pricing with Imperfect Forecasts[J]. Operations Research, 2013,61(3):612-624
[24] Aksoy-Pierson M., Allon G., Federgruen A. Price Competition under Mixed Multinomial Logit Demand Functions[J]. Management Science, 2013,59(8):1817-1835
[25] Rao R. S., Schaefer R. Conspicuous Consumption and Dynamic Pricing[J]. Marketing Science, 2013,32(5):786-804
[26] 邹德强,赵平. 期望不一致对满意影响的函数形式:展望理论的预测[J]. 南开管理评论, 2008,11(6):79-85