An Empirical Analysisof Harbor on Hinterland Regional Based on VAR Model: A Case Study of Lianyungang Harbor

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the direct, indirect and inducing effect that a harbor acts on the regional economy of its hinterland, and on this basis explores the effect of the regional industry cost saving, the effect of industrial clustering, the effect of industry synergy, and the inducing effect of related industries, with the harbor as a regional economic system variable to discuss the mechanism of how a harbor acts on the regional economy. Cargo throughput of Lianyungang Port and the GDP and number of jobs of its hinterland are chosen to establish vector autoregressive VAR (2) model for regression analysis, and causality of the two sets of variables is analyzed based on Granger test. The result shows that Lianyungang Port is still in its infancy development stage, without playing its full role in boosting the hinterland economy. At last, the policy recommendations are given for promoting the development of Lianyungang Port and its hinterland economy.

Key words: harbor, hinterland regional economy, mechanism of action, VAR, Granger test

Yang Liuxing, Tian Guiliang, Wang Jue. An Empirical Analysisof Harbor on Hinterland Regional Based on VAR Model: A Case Study of Lianyungang Harbor[J]. , 2016, 28(9): 250-259.

References

[1] 杨吾扬,梁进社.高等经济地理学[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 1997
[2] Gilbert R. Y., Vinod B. A. Economic Impact of.Port on Regional Economy: Note[J].Growth and Chage, 1987,18(3):74-87
[3] Yochum G. R., et. al. The Economic Impact and Tate of return of Virginia's Ports on the Commonwealth[M].Norfolk: College of Business.Public Administration, Old Dominion University, 1989
[4] Seabrooke W., Hui E., Lam W., et al. Forecasting Cargo Growth and Regional Role of the Port of Hong Kong [J].Cities, 2003,20(1):51-64
[5] Cullinane K., Wang T. F., Song D. W., et al. The Technical Efficiency of Container Ports: Comparing Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis[J].Transportation Research Part A, 2006,40(4):354-374
[6] Coppens F., Lagneaux F., Meersman H., et al. Economic Impact of Port Activity:.Disaggregate Analysis-The Case of Antwerp[R].National Bank of Belgium Working Papers-document Series, 2007
[7] Schempf F. J. New Study Finds Port Fourchon ‘vital' to US Economy[J].Offshore, 2008,63(2):74-76
[8] 谢丹.港口发展与区域经济发展关系研究[D].大连海事大学硕士学位论文, 2005
[9] 王琳.港口经济对山东省区域经济发展作用研究[D].中国海洋大学硕士学位论文, 2009
[10] 姜东民.港口经济推动沿海地区经济发展的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010,20(6):53-57
[11] 苏慧.青岛港口经济与区域经济联动发展研究[D].中国海洋大学硕士学位论文, 2006
[12] 徐惠蓉.试讨论港口、港口城市和腹地经济之间的联系问题[J].南方经济, 1990,(4):20-23
[13] 丁井国,钟昌标.港口与腹地经济关系研究—以宁波港为例[J].经济地理, 2010,30(7):1133-1137
[14] 张燕,冯邦彦.港口与直接腹地的相关性研究:上海港、深圳港和广州港的比较[J].产经评论, 2011,3(2):53-61
[15] 李耀鼎,祝毅然.上海国际航运中心集装箱集疏运体系面临挑战与对策[J].集装箱化, 2008,(7):14-17
[16] 刘波等.港口经济腹地空间演变及其实证研究—以连云港港口为例[J].经济地理, 2007,27(6):904-909