Stability on Imports Relationship of Oil: Evidence from China in 1992-2012

Abstract

Abstract:

The stability of China's oil import trade relationship has become a key factor that influences the sustainable supply of overseas oil and also a key foundation for China's energy security protection. In this paper we choose the oil imports data of HS6 from 1992 to 2012 and use survival analysis model to measure the duration of the trade links. Based on this analysis, we adopt Kaplan-Meier and Cox's Proportional Hazard Model to explore the different factors of trade relationship stability and supplements including several fields such as products, time period and area analysis. The conclusion is that the duration of China's oil import trade is generally short, as evidenced by the average of 2.97 years and the median of only 1 years in the last twenty years. This is mainly, due to national characteristics and variable product characteristics, so the government should take more systematic and specific policies to cope with this problem.

Key words: oil imports, importing relationship, duration, survival analyzing model

Li Yong, Fu Zhibo, Li Haiying. Stability on Imports Relationship of Oil: Evidence from China in 1992-2012[J]. , 2016, 28(9): 17-30.

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