Early Warning Simulation of Urban Ecological Security Based on System Dynamics in Wuhan City

Abstract

Abstract:

Urban ecosystem is a densely populated compound ecosystem and its ecological security is quite vulnerable. This paper uses system dynamics theory and method to study the early warnings of urban ecological security. Firstly, the urban ecological security early warning index system is constructed by PSR model, then the simulation model of urban ecological system is constructed based on system dynamics. Taking Wuhan as a sample and using the system flow diagram, the equation and its simulation, we reveal the ecological security evolution trend of the city from 2004 to 2020, and analyze the early warnings. The results show that the ecological system of Wuhan improves year by year from 2004 to 2020 through three stages from declining, to bouncing back to steadily improving. This is the result of the interaction among different elements at such three levels as ecological safety pressure, ecological security state and ecological security response.

Key words: urban ecological security, system dynamics, simulation, early warning

Ke Xiaoling, Guo Haixiang, Gong Xiaoguang, Liu Xiao. Early Warning Simulation of Urban Ecological Security Based on System Dynamics in Wuhan City[J]. , 2020, 32(4): 262-273.

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