Study of Extreme Flood Key Scenario Reasoning for Emergency Decision

Abstract

Abstract:

Effective scenario reasoning can help emergency decision makers work out reasonable solution under high pressure of the extreme flood key scenario, but the existing method of CBR could not address the difficulty caused by multiple data types and insufficient historic samples. Extreme flood scenario is defined and represented generally based on knowledge element by scenario division, and belief rule-base for scenario reasoning is constructed based on relation of knowledge elements and expert knowledge. Based on belief rulebased inference methodology by evidential reasoning approach, extreme flood key scenario retrieval and reasoning is completed, which could improve the effectiveness of decision-making by historical emergency solution for extreme flood key scenario emergency management. Taking the scenario of Mengwa flood storage areas starting in Huaihe Valley as an example, the applicability and feasibility of this method is proved.

Key words: extreme flood, key scenario, knowledge element, evidential reasoning approach, belief rule-based inference methodology

Yin Jie, Shi Qinfen, Li Feng. Study of Extreme Flood Key Scenario Reasoning for Emergency Decision[J]. , 2019, 31(10): 255-262.

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