Forecasting of Licensed (Assistant) Doctors' Demand in China——An Empirical Research Based on GM, ARIMA and VAR Models

Abstract

Abstract:

The demand forecast of medical and health personnel is of great significance for the implementation of the "Healthy China 2030" Plan and is helpful for the promotion of medical and health system reform. We forecast China's licensed (assistant) doctors with GM (1,1), ARIMA and VAR model respectively. Based on a dynamic integration method, this paper integrates the forecast results of three models above, which effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Finally the empirical results show that the demand of licensed (assistant) doctors in 2020 is consistent with the goal set out by the State Council in "Healthy China 2030" Plan, while the planned goal in 2030 is lower than the demand. The research of this paper provides several guidance and management enlightenments to the National Health Department.

Key words: licensed (assistant) doctors' demand, GM (1,1), ARIMA, VAR, integrated forecasting model

Li Lei, Li Chao, Ding Xuechen, Qiao Han. Forecasting of Licensed (Assistant) Doctors' Demand in China——An Empirical Research Based on GM, ARIMA and VAR Models[J]. , 2018, 30(3): 171-178.

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