Abstract: Weak industrial base capacity has become a key factor limiting the improvement of China’s industrial chain supply chain level. Based on the data of Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2019, this paper constructs an index system for evaluating industrial base capacity, analyzes the change characteristics of industrial base capacity in China’s provinces by using the coefficient of variation σ convergence model, and empirically analyzes the effect of China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy on the industrial base capacity in China by using continuous and spatial continuous DID models. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) China’s provincial industrial base capacity shows an upward trend in general, especially after the implementation of the China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy in 2015, when China’s provincial industrial base capacity began to break away from the convergence trend as proposed by the neoclassical economic growth theory and instead show further growth potential without σ convergence. (2) China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy has improved the industrial base capacity to a certain extent, and the positive promoting effect of the policy is more sustainable. (3) Considering the spatial dimension of the policy, it is evident that China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy has a positive spatial impact on industrial basic capabilities, benefiting not only local and neighboring areas, but also the entire region. Furthermore, the spillover effect on neighboring areas and the entire region is more substantial than the direct effect it has on local area. (4) Further analysis reveals that the China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy mainly improves industrial base capacity by enhancing industrial innovation capacity and industrial infrastructure service capacity. Its impact on industrial supply capacity exists only in terms of total spatial effects, with no clear impact on industrial competitiveness and industrial chain control capacity. (5) Mechanism analysis indicates that the digital economy and financial technology are two mechanisms through which China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy affects industrial base capacity. These mechanisms positively influence both local area and the entire region, but negatively affect neighboring areas.

Key words: “manufacturing superpower” policy, industrial base capability, coefficient of Variation Method, σ convergence, continuous spatial DID model