Soybean Production Potential of BRI Countries and Its Impact on China’s Dominance in Soybean Trade

Abstract

Abstract: Strengthening grain cooperation with countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would help to enhance China’s dominance in soybean trade. By applying GAEZ model with three simulation scenarios under the RCP4.5 assumption, this paper estimates the soybean production potential and export potential of BRI countries in 2011—2040 (2020s), 2041—2070 (2050s) and 2071—2100 (2080s), and studies the impact on China’s dominance in soybean trade under the optimum scenario. The results indicate that the soybean production potential in BRI countries is 50.36 million to 98.92 million tons, and the potential production may reach 1.7 to 4 times the soybean production in 2020. Moreover, the potential export from BRI countries to China is 8.63 million to 57.19 million tons. The concentration rate of China’s soybean import could be reduced to 91% if BRI countries strengthen their irrigation, and further to 54% if they develop their arable land. Despite China’s dominance of soybean trade will be greatly improved, Brazil, the United States and Argentina will still remain the dominant sources of China’s soybean import. The methods and conclusions of this study provide theoretical and policy supporting for improving cooperation between China and BRI countries in soybean production and trade.

Key words: soybeans, production potential, export potential, Belt and Road Initiative, GAEZ, trade dominance

Su Danhua, Ni Guohua, Bao Qin. Soybean Production Potential of BRI Countries and Its Impact on China’s Dominance in Soybean Trade[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(1): 64-74.

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