Construction and Application of Risk Early Warning Model for Industrial Transformation in Resource-based Cities

Abstract

Abstract: Industrial transformation and upgrading is crucial for the sustainable development of resource-based cities. This paper identifies and analyzes the relevant risk factors, and categorizes them as macro risk and micro risk. The former mainly includes policy, environment, market and social risks, while the latter covers opportunities, models, talents and capital risks. On this basis, a three-dimensional map of risk identification for industrial transformation of resource-based cities is creatively constructed from three dimensions: target, time and factor. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to build the transformation early warning indicator system, which gives consideration to integrity and minimization, availability and accuracy, and includes 8 first level, 20 second level and 35 third level indicators. The transformation early warning model is constructed, seven sample cities are selected, and the analysis of their risk factor probability and influence quantity are carried out respectively. The transformation risk (early warning) values of each city are calculated, the transformation early warning criteria are proposed, and the transformation suggestions are given.

Key words: resource-based cities, industrial transformation, risk early warning

Xiong Zhijian, Zhao Hong, Liu Xiuli. Construction and Application of Risk Early Warning Model for Industrial Transformation in Resource-based Cities[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(1): 229-242.

References

[1] 史英杰. 东北地区资源型城市产业转型问题研究[D]. 天津大学博士学位论文, 2008 Shi Y. J. The Study on Resource-based City's Industry Transition of Northeast Area[D]. Doctoral Dissertation of Tianjin University, 2008
[2] 杨振超. 淮南资源型城市可持续发展战略转型研究[D]. 中南大学博士学位论文, 2010 Yang Z. C. The Research of the Strategic Transition of Huainan's Resource-dependent City[D]. Doctoral Dissertation of Central South University, 2010
[3] 王剑. 资源型城市鄂尔多斯产业转型研究[D]. 中央民族大学博士学位论文, 2013 Wang J. Research on the Industrial Transformation of Resource-based City Ordos[D]. Doctoral Dissertation of Minzu University of China, 2013
[4] 张晨. 我国资源型城市绿色转型复合系统研究——山西省太原市实践的启发[D]. 南开大学博士学位论文, 2010 Zhang C. Research on the Composite Systems of Green Transformation of Our Country's Resource-based Cities:Enlightenment from the Practice of Taiyuan City in Shanxi Province[D]. Doctoral Dissertation of Nankai University, 2010
[5] 赵天石. 我国资源型城市经济转型研究[D]. 吉林大学博士学位论文, 2006 Zhao T. S. Research on the Economic Transformation of Resources Cities in China[D]. Doctoral Dissertation of Jilin University, 2006
[6] 徐君. 基于熵理论的资源型城市转型与产业演替机理研究[D]. 西南交通大学博士学位论文, 2007 Xu J. Study on Resource-dependent Citiestransformation and Industry Evolutionmechanism Based on Entropy Theory[D]. Southwest Jiaotong University Doctor Degree Thesis, 2007
[7] Randall J. E.,Ironside R. G. Communities on the Edge:An Economic Geography of Resource Development Communities in Canada[J]. The Canadian Geographer, 1996,40(1):17-30
[8] Bradbury J. H. Towards All Alternative Theory of Resource-based Town Development[J]. Economic Geography, 1979,55(2):147-166
[9] Jackson R. T. Commuter Mining and the Kidston Gold Mine:Goodbye to Mining Town[J]. Geography, 1987,243(72):162-163
[10] Bradbury J. H. The Impact of Industrial Cycles in the Mining Setter[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 1984,8(3):315-325
[11] Marsh B. Continuity and Decline in the Anthracite Towns of Pennsylvania[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1987,77(3):337-350
[12] Hayter R., Barnes T. J. Labour Market Segmentation, Flexibility and Recession:A British Colombian Case Study[J]. Environment and Planning C:Politics and Space, 1992,10:333-353
[13] Jebrak M. Economic Geology:Then and Now[J]. Geoscience Canada, 2006,33(2):81-93
[14] Auty R., Warhurst A. Sustainable Development in Mineral Exporting Economies[J]. Resources Policy, 1993,19(1):14-29
[15] Klemetsen M. E., Bye B., Raknerud A. Can Direct Regulations Spur Innovations in Environmental Technologies? A Study on Firm-level Patenting[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2018,120(2):338-371
[16] Kumar H., Singh M. K., Gupta M. P. A Policy Framework for City Eligibility Analysis:TISM and Fuzzy MICMAC-weighted Approach to Select a City for Smart City Transformation in India[J]. Land Use Policy, 2019,82(3):375-390
[17] Yang M., Wang J., Jing Z., et al. Evaluation and Regulation of Resource-based City Resilience:Evidence from Shanxi Province, China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022,81(10):103256
[18] Zhou J., Zhang Z., Xu X., et al. Does the Transformation of Resource-dependent Cities Promote the Realization of the Carbon-peaking Goal? An Analysis Based on Typical Resource-dependent City Clusters in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022,365(9):132731
[19] Yin Q., Wang Y., Xu Z., et al. Factors Influencing Green Transformation Efficiency in China's Mineral Resource-based Cities:Method Analysis Based on IPAT-E and PLS-SEM[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022,330(1):129783
[20] Kuai P., Li W., Cheng R., et al. An Application of System Dynamics for Evaluating Planning Alternatives to Guide a Green Industrial Transformation in a Resource-based City[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015,104(10):403-412
[21] Wang Y., Chen H., Long R., et al. Has the Sustainable Development Planning Policy Promoted the Green Transformation in China's Resource-based Cities?[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2022,180(5):106181
[22] Zhu J., Lin B. Resource Dependence, Market-oriented Reform, and Industrial Transformation:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities[J]. Resources Policy, 2022,78(9):102914
[23] Zhang Y., Zhao F., Zhang J., et al. Fluctuation in the Transformation of Economic Development and the Coupling Mechanism with the Environmental Quality of Resource-based Cities-A Case Study of Northeast China[J]. Resources Policy, 2021,72(10):102128
[24] Li Q., Zeng F., Liu S., et al. The Effects of China's Sustainable Development Policy for Resource-based Cities on Local Industrial Transformation[J]. Resources Policy, 2021,71(6):101940
[25] Liu E., Wang Y., Chen W., et al. Evaluating the Transformation of China's Resource-based Cities:An Integrated Sequential Weight and TOPSIS Approach[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2021,77(10):101022
[26] Kumar H., Singh M. K., Gupta M. P., et al. Moving Towards Smart Cities:Solutions that Lead to the Smart City Transformation Framework[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020,153(6):119281
[27] Dong S., Li Z., Li B. Problems and Strategies of Industrial Transformation of China's Resource-based Cities[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2007,17(5):12-17
[28] Zhao Y., Dai R., Yang Y., et al. Integrated Evaluation of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity During the Transformation of Resource-exhausted Cities Based on Euclidean Distance and a Gray-TOPSIS Model:A Case Study of Jiaozuo City, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022,142(9):109282
[29] Zhang D., Pee L. G., Pan S. L., et al. Big Data Analytics, Resource Orchestration, and Digital Sustainability:A Case Study of Smart City Development[J]. Government Information Quarterly, 2022,39(1):101626
[30] 周振超. 当代中国政府"条块关系"研究[M]. 天津:天津人民出版社, 2009 Zhou Z. C. A Study on the "Block by Block Relationship" of Contemporary Chinese Government[M]. Tianjin:Tianjin People's Publishing House, 2009
[31] 张永凯. 西北资源型城市产业转型模式分析[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2012,28(4):328-331 Zhang Y. K. Analysis of Industrial Transition Mode of Resource-based Cities in Northwest of China[J]. Resource Development & Market, 2012,28(4):328-331
[32] 肖劲松,李宏军. 我国资源型城市的界定与分类探析[J]. 中外能源, 2009,14(11):15-19 Xiao J. S., Li H. J. A Study on Definitions and Classification of Resource-based Cities in China[J]. Sino-Global Energy, 2009,14(11):15-19
[33] 齐建珍. 资源型城市转型学[M]. 北京:人民出版社, 2004 Qi J. Z. Transformation of Resource-based Cities[M]. Beijing:People's Publishing House, 2004
[34] 田霍卿. 资源型城市可持续发展的思考[M]. 北京:人民出版社, 2000 Tian H. Q. Reflection on Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities[M]. Beijing:People's Publishing House, 2000
[35] 兰国辉,荀守奎. 供给侧改革下我国资源型城市发展转型研究[J]. 江淮论坛, 2017,(6):44-48 Lan G. H., Xun S. K. Research on the Development and Transformation of Resource-based Cities in China under Supply Side Reform[J]. Jianghuai Tribune, 2017,(6):44-48
[36] 李娇娇. 基于SWOT模型的资源型城市产业转型研究——以山西省吕梁市为例[J]. 商业经济, 2021,(3):80-85 Li J. J. Research on Industrial Transformation of Resource-based Cities Based on SWOT Model:A Case Study of Lvliang City, Shanxi Province[J]. Business & Economy, 2021,(3):80-85
[37] 陈广洲,纪万霞. 科技创新对资源型城市产业结构转型影响的实证分析——以安徽省为例[J]. 辽宁工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022,24(1):30-34 Chen G. Z., Ji W. X. Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Technological Innovation on the Transformation of Industrial Structure in Resource-based Cities:A Case Study of Anhui Province[J]. Journal of Liaoning University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2022,24(1):30-34
[38] 薛冰. 资源型城市产业转型的风险识别与防范[J]. 资源与产业, 2014,16(1):8-12 Xue B. Risks Identification and Prevention of Industrial Transformation in Resources-based Cities[J]. Resources & Industries, 2014,16(1):8-12
[39] 王政辉,路世昌. 资源型城市产业转型风险动态评估的贝叶斯模型研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2007,7(21):5732-5735 Wang Z. H., Luo S. C. Study on Bayesian Model of Risk Evaluation about Industry Transformation for the Resources City[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2007,7(21):5732-5735
[40] 徐君. 资源型城市产业转型风险评估[J]. 统计与决策, 2007,(4):112-114 Xu J. Risk Assessment of Industrial Transformation in Resource-based Cities[J]. Statistics and Decision Making, 2007,(4):112-114
[41] 洪富艳,高远. 资源型城市社会风险防控研究[J]. 北方经贸, 2018,(11):112-113 Hong F. Y., Gao Y. Research on Social Risk Prevention and Control in Resource-based Cities[J]. Northern Economic and Trade, 2018,(11):112-113
[42] 宋敏,刘学敏,Nelson H. T. 资源型城市财源建设的风险识别与制度优化路径——以陕西省延安市为例[J]. 中国软科学, 2016,(10):62-70 Song M., Liu X. M, Nelson H. T. Risk Identification and System Optimization of Tax Revenue in Resource-rich Cities:The Case of Yan'an, Shaanxi Province[J]. China Soft Science, 2016,(10):62-70
[43] 张伟伟. 新常态下煤炭产业金融风险传导机制研究——以山西省阳泉市为例[J]. 河北金融, 2017,(5):26-29 Zhang W. W. Research on the Financial Risk Transmission Mechanism of the Coal Industry under the New Norma-Taking Yangquan City, Shanxi Province as an Example[J]. Hebei Finance, 2017,(5):26-29
[44] 全国注册咨询工程师(投资)资格考试参考教材编写委员会. 工程项目组织与管理[M]. 北京:中国计划出版社, 2007 National Registered Consulting Engineer (Investment) Qualification Examination Reference Textbook Writing Committee. Engineering Project Organization and Management[M]. Beijing:China Planning Press, 2007
[45] 中国注册会计师协会. 公司战略与风险管理[M]. 北京:经济科学出版社, 2009 CPA. Corporate Strategy and Risk Management[M]. Beijing:Economic Science Press, 2009
[46] 国家发展改革委、建设部. 建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M]. 北京:中国计划出版社, 2006 NDRC., MHURDRC. Economic Evaluation Methods and Parameters for Construction Projects[M]. Beijing:China Planning Press, 2006
[47] 龚维斌. 当代中国社会风险的产生、演变及其特点[EB/OL]. https://www.gmw.cn/xueshu/2020-03/31/content_33703096.htm, 2020-03-31 Gong W. B. The Emergence, Evolution, and Characteristics of Social Risks in Contemporary China[EB/OL]. https://www.gmw.cn/xueshu/2020-03/31/content_33703096.htm, 2020-03-31
[48] 曲建升,高峰,张旺锋,等. 不同资源类型的资源型城市经济转型基础与模式比较——以典型资源型城市为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007,21(2):12-16 Qu J. S., Gao F., Zhang W. F., et al. Comparing Research on Economic Transformation of Resources-based Cities[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007,21(2):12-16
[49] 刘辉,张志赟,税伟,等. 资源枯竭型城市增长边界划定研究——以淮北市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017,32(3):391-405 Liu H., Zhang Z. Y., Shui W., et al. Urban Growth Boundary Delimitation of Resource-exhausted Cities:A Case Study of Huaibei City[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017,32(3):391-405
[50] 丁湘城,张颖. 基于生命周期理论的资源型城市经济转型研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2008,17(3):70-76 Ding X. C., Zhang Y. Research on Transition and Development Mode of Resource-based Cities According to the Cycle Theory[J]. World Regional Studies, 2008,17(3):70-76
[51] 王建强. 黑龙江资源型城市转型中主导产业选择研究[J]. 中国集体经济, 2018,(8):27-28 Wang J. Q. A Study on the Selection of Leading Industries in the Transformation of Resource Based Cities in Heilongjiang Province[J]. China's Collective Economy, 2018,(8):27-28
[52] 周博. 资源型城市产业转型成本分析[J]. 价值工程, 2011,30(36):309-310 Zhou B. The Cost Analysis of Industrial Transition of Resource-based City[J]. Value Engineering, 2011,30(36):309-310
[53] 蔡世刚. 人力资本视域下资源枯竭型城市产业转型——以湖北省黄石市为例[J]. 生态经济, 2017,33(4):69-72 Cai S. G. The Industrial Transformation of Resource-exhausted Cities from the Perspective of Human Capital:Taking Huangshi City of Hubei Province as an Example[J]. Ecological Economy, 2017,33(4):69-72
[54] 佟欣,许健. 商业银行操作风险预警指标体系研究[J]. 管理评论, 2010,22(1):13-21 Tong X., Xu J. A Research on Operational Risk Warning Indicator Architecture of Domestic Commercial Banks[J]. Management Review, 2010,22(1):13-21
[55] 商允忠,王华清. 资源型城市转型效率评价研究——以山西省为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2012,14(1):12-17 Shang Y. Z., Wang H. Q. A Case Study on Shanxi Province:Evaluation of Transformation Efficiency in Resources-based Cities[J]. Resources & Industries, 2012,14(1):12-17
[56] 谭玲玲,肖双. 基于全要素生产率视角资源型城市低碳转型效果评价模型[J]. 中国矿业, 2018,27(2):58-64 Tan L. L., Xiao S. Evaluation Model of Resource-based Cities Low-carbon Transition Effect Based on Total Factor Productivity[J]. China Mining Magazin, 2018,27(2):58-64
[57] 王田雨,赵华. 基于SD模型的煤炭资源型城市城镇化发展与产业转型研究——以徐州市沛县为例[J]. 中国矿业, 2017,26(5)64-68 Wang T. Y., Zhao H. Study on Economic Transformation and Urbanization Development of Coal Resources Cities Based on the SD Model:Peixian County Is Taken as an Example[J]. China Mining Magazin, 2017,26(5)64-68
[58] 叶雪洁,吕莉,王晓蕾. 经济地质学视角下的资源型城市产业转型路径研究——以淮南市为例[J]. 中国软科学, 2018,(2):186-192 Ye X. J., Lv L.,Wang X. L. Economic Geology and the Path of Industrial Transformation in Resource-based Cities:A Case Study of Huainan City[J]. China Soft Science, 2018,(2):186-192
[59] 徐艳,周晓晶,张彩霞. 大庆石油资源型城市转型发展模式研究[J]. 大庆社会科学, 2018,(3):14-15 Xu Y., Zhou X. J., Zhang C. X. Research on the Transformation and Development Model of Daqing Petroleum Resource-based City[J]. Daqing Social Sciences, 2018,(3):14-15
[60] 邓伟. 中国资源型城市产业结构转型升级研究[D]. 北京交通大学博士学位论文, 2020 Deng W. Research on the Industrial Restructuring and Upgrading of Resourced-based Cities in China[D]. Doctoral Dissertation from Beijing Jiaotong University, 2020
[61] 赵梓伊. 四川省资源型城市产业转型及发展路径研究[D]. 西南财经大学硕士学位论文, 2019 Zhao Z. Y. Research on Industrial Transition and Development Path of Resource-based Cities in Sichuan Province[D]. Master's Thesis from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 2019