The Impact of Rising Housing Prices on the the Investment of the Real Sector: Based on the Perspective of Industrial Chain

Abstract

Abstract: The boom in the real estate market sharply contrasts with the sluggish investment in some sectors of the real economy, espe-cially the downstream industrial chain. Using data from listed companies, this paper reveals the differential impact of rising house prices on the real sector's investment behavior from the industrial chain perspective. The study shows that rising house prices have a crowding-out effect on the investment of the real sector, with the degree of impact depending on where the real sector is located in the industry chain, and can cause investment imbalance between upstream and downstream industries. Rising house prices have a strong investment crowding-out effect on upstream sectors of the industrial chain before 2010 and on downstream sectors after 2010. Further study finds that the difference in the ownership structure of sectors amplifies the differential crowding out effect of rising house prices on firms' invest-ment. At the same time, real estate regulation policies can partially decrease the crowding-out effect. Based on the industry chain per-spective, this paper confirms that rising house prices are an important influencing factor for the heterization of investment behavior in the real economy and provides actionable policy recommendations for the government to formulate policies to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and enhance the modernization of the industrial chain in the real economy.

Key words: the real sector, housing prices, industrial chain, crowding-out effect

Xu Shijie, Dong Jichang, Dong Zhi, Li Xiuting. The Impact of Rising Housing Prices on the the Investment of the Real Sector: Based on the Perspective of Industrial Chain[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(5): 40-48.

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