Management Review ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 27-39.

• Economic and Financial Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on the Effect of Trade Frictions against China on the Restructuring of Global Value Chains under the New Pattern of Dual Circulation

Qiao Xiaoyong, Li Xingyao, Zhu Heliang   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124
  • Received:2021-12-01 Online:2024-02-28 Published:2024-03-30

Abstract: Under the new development pattern of dual circulation, this paper takes China as a sample to investigate the mechanism and effect of trade friction on global value chain (GVC) restructuring by matching GTAP model and GVC accounting decomposition model and using social network analysis method. The study finds that the effects of trade friction on the GVC restructuring are mainly reflected in retraction of GVC production chain, embedding and profits distribution reconstruction, industrial transfer and upgrading, transition of GVC production network, and regional agglomeration and block evolution; and the trade frictions against China has inhibited China’s participation in GVC on both the demand side and the supply side, resulting in a sharp contraction of the enterprises import and domestic intermediate demand, and a great damage on China’s trade income and participation in GVC. The negative effect caused by the upstream and downstream industrial associations is significant. The resonance effect in GVC inhibits trade barrier initiators and non-directly-related third parties from participating in domestic value-addition and complex GVC in China. However, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN have undertaken more intermediates trade transfers; the trade friction has also caused an overall contraction of the GVC trade network, and changed the community structure of the original network.

Key words: dual circulation, tariff barriers, trade friction, GVC restructuring, anti-dumping and anti-subsidies