Study on Willingness of Mortgage Prepayment

Abstract

Abstract: Residential mortgage loan is an important real estate financial product to support the housing demand of residents, and it is also a high-quality asset of commercial banks. However, borrowers’ prepayment will increase the uncertainty of commercial banks’ operation and management to a certain extent, and the difficulty of their risk management. This paper constructs an analysis model of prepayment influencing factors and individual prepayment willingness, and based on the data of 518 valid questionnaires, tests the theoretical model by use of structural equation model. The results show that among the direct effects of various factors on the willingness to prepay, capital inflow has a positive impact on the willingness to prepay, capital outflow and positive financial behavior have a negative impact on the willingness to prepay. Capital inflow, positive financial behavior, conservative cognition and preference will indirectly affect the willingness to prepay through the impact on capital outflow. Then, the corresponding management suggestions are put forward according to the research conclusions.

Key words: mortgage, prepayment, influencing factors, structural equation model

Ke Manqi, Li Xiuting, Dong Zhi, Dong Jichang. Study on Willingness of Mortgage Prepayment[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(12): 111-119.

References

[1] 王晓,李佳.资产证券化对商业银行盈利的影响——异质性视角下的研究[J].金融论坛, 2021,26(3):48-59 Wang X., Li J. The Impact of Asset Securitization on the Profitability of Commercial Banks:A Research from the Perspective of Heterogeneity[J]. Finance Forum, 2021,26(3):48-59
[2] 张小茜,党春辉.基于抵押物处置风险的不良贷款证券化研究——以某国有商业银行的个人住房贷款资产池为例[J].金融研究, 2018,(8):102-119 Zhang X. Q., Dang C. H. Securitization of NPL Based on Collateral Disposal Risk:Case from Asset Pool of Residential Mortgage Loans of a State-owned Commercial Bank[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2018,(8):102-119
[3] Fang L. Mortgage Pricing Implications of Prepayment:Separating Pecuniary and Non-pecuniary Prepayment[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2020,60(3):239-269
[4] Bhattacharya A., Wilson S. P., Soyer R. A Bayesian Approach to Modeling Mortgage Default and Prepayment[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2019,274(3):1112-1124
[5] 安丛梅.监管约束、资产证券化与银行风险承担[J].山西财经大学学报, 2021,43(3):82-95 An C. M. Regulatory Constraints, Asset Securitization and Bank Risk-taking[J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2021,43(3):82-95
[6] 安丛梅.资产证券化与银行业系统性风险——基于"去一"分析法的应用[J].金融监管研究, 2021,(5):1-15 An C. M. Asset Securitization and Banking Systemic Risk:Application Based on "De-one" Analysis[J]. Financial Regulation Research, 2021,(5):1-15
[7] 李佳,闵悦,王晓.经济政策不确定性、资产证券化与银行风险承担[J].金融经济学研究, 2021,36(1):77-93 Li J., Min Y., Wang X. Economic Policy Uncertainty, Asset Securitization and Bank Risk-taking[J]. Financial Economics Research, 2021,36(1):77-93
[8] Zhou B., Wang Y., Yu H. SEM-based Analysis on Leisure Satisfaction of Urban Residents in Ningbo City[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020,40(1):119-127
[9] Richard S. F., Roll R. Prepayments on Fixed-rate Mortgage-backed Securities[J]. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 1989,15(3):73-82
[10] Sundaresan S. Fixed Income Markets and Their Derivatives[M]. New York:Academic Press, 2009
[11] Fang L., Munneke H. J. A Spatial Analysis of Borrowers' Mortgage Termination Decision:A Nonparametric Approach[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2021,1(86):103-195
[12] Scharlemann T. C., Shore S. H. The Effect of Changing Mortgage Payments on Default and Prepayment:Evidence from HAMP Resets[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2022,50(5):1231-1256
[13] Quercia R. G., Pennington-Cross A., Tian C. Y. Mortgage Default and Prepayment Risks among Moderate and Low Income Households[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2012,40(S1):159-198
[14] 中债资信课题组.宏观因素与房贷提前还款的相关性[J].中国金融, 2019,(22):70-71 China Bond Rating Research Group. The Correlation Between Macro Factors and Mortgage Prepayment[J]. China Finance, 2019,(22):70-71
[15] Li Z., Li K., Yao X., et al. Predicting Prepayment and Default Risks of Unsecured Consumer Loans in Online Lending[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2019,55(1-3):118-132
[16] Liang T. H., Lin J. B. A Two-stage Segment and Prediction Model for Mortgage Prepayment Prediction and Management[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 2014,30(2):328-343
[17] Zahi S., Achchab B. Modeling Car Loan Prepayment Using Supervised Machine Learning[J]. Procedia Computer Science, 2020,3(170):1128-1133
[18] 刘迁迁.我国个人住房抵押贷款证券化产品提前偿还及定价研究[J].商业研究, 2016,(7):42-48 Liu Q. Q. Research on Prepayment and Pricing of RMBS in China[J]. Commercial Research, 2016,(7):42-48
[19] Bajo E., Barbi M. Financial Illiteracy and Mortgage Refinancing Decisions[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2018,9(41):279-296
[20] 刘洪玉,孙冰.个人住房抵押贷款提前还款风险因素实证研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2007,(1):124-128 Liu H. Y., Sun B. Empirical Study on Prepayment Risk Factors of Individual Housing Mortgage Loan[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2007,(1):124-128
[21] Sun H., Gao L. Lending Practices to Same-sex Borrowers[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America, 2019,19(116):9293-9302
[22] Deng Y., Gu Q., He J. Reinforcement Learning and Mortgage Partial Prepayment Behavior[J]. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2021,68:101378
[23] 杜子平,杨婷,张勇.关于保障性商品房贷款人提前还款行为的研究[J].经济问题, 2012,(3):117-120 Du Z. P., Yang T., Zhang Y. Prepayment Research in Borrowers of Security Commercial Housing[J]. On Economic Problems, 2012,(3):117-120
[24] 袁宏,崔啸,董纪昌,等.基于理性提前偿付的住房抵押贷款证券定价研究[J].管理评论, 2010,22(8):3-9 Yuan H., Cui X., Dong J. C., et al. Pricing of the Mortgage-backed Security Based on Rational Pre-payment[J]. Management Review, 2010,22(8):3-9
[25] 李新平,邓琳,闫妍.个人住房抵押贷款的居民提前还款行为分析与RMBS定价问题研究[J].管理评论, 2018,30(7):26-33 Li X. P., Deng L., Yan Y. Individual Residential Mortgage Loan Prepayment Behavior Analyses and RMBS Pricing Study[J]. Management Review, 2018,30(7):26-33
[26] 陈欣彦,王培龙,董纪昌,等.房价收入比对居民租购选择的影响研究[J].管理评论, 2020,32(11):66-80 Chen X. Y., Wang P. L., Dong J. C., et al. A Study on the Impact of Housing Price-to-Income Ratio on Residents' Choice of Rent and Purchase[J]. Management Review, 2020,32(11):66-80
[27] Ioannides Y. M., Rosenthal S. S. Estimating the Consumption and Investment Demands for Housing and Their Effect on Housing Tenure Status[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994,76(1):127-141
[28] Brueckner J. K. The Demand for Mortgage Debt:Some Basic Results[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 1994,3(4):251-262
[29] Noctor M., Stoney S., Stradling R. Financial Literacy:A Discussion of Concepts and Competences of Financial Literacy and Opportunities for Its Introduction into Young People's Learning[R]. National Westminster Bank Report, 1992
[30] Agarwal S., Amromin G., Ben-David I., et al. Financial Literacy and Financial Planning:Evidence from India[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2015,27(3):4-21
[31] 胡振,臧日宏.金融素养对家庭理财规划影响研究——中国城镇家庭的微观证据[J].中央财经大学学报, 2017,(2):72-83 Hu Z., Zang R. H. Research on the Effect of Financial Literacy on Household Financial Planning:Microeconomic Evidence of Urban Household in China[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance&Economics, 2017,(2):72-83
[32] Chu Z., Wang Z., Xiao J. J., et al. Financial Literacy, Portfolio Choice and Financial Well-being[J]. Social Indicators Research, 2017,132(2):799-820
[33] 吴卫星,吴锟,张旭阳.金融素养与家庭资产组合有效性[J].国际金融研究, 2018,(5):66-75 Wu W. X., Wu K., Zhang X. Y. Financial Literacy and the Effectiveness of Household Asset Portfolio[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2018,(5):66-75
[34] Campbell J. Y., Cochrane J. H. By Force of Habit:A Consumption Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1999,107(2):205-251
[35] 董纪昌,何静,李秀婷,等.公众房价预期形成机理分析与实证研究——基于社会学习视角[J].管理评论, 2020,32(10):34-46 Dong J. C., He J., Li X. T., et al. Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Research on the Formation of Public Housing Price Expectations:Based on Social Learning Perspective[J]. Management Review, 2020,32(10):34-46
[36] Alessie R., Lusardi A. Consumption, Saving and Habit Formation[J]. Economics Letters, 1997,55(1):103-108
[37] 雷钦礼.财富积累、习惯、偏好改变、不确定性与家庭消费决策[J].经济学(季刊), 2009,(2):1029-1046 Lei Q. L. Wealth Accumulation, Habits, Preference Change, Uncertainty and Consumption Decisions[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2009,(2):1029-1046
[38] 饶育蕾,彭叠峰,盛虎.行为金融学[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 2018 Rao Y. L., Peng D. F., Sheng H. Behavioral Finance[M]. Beijing:China Machine Press, 2018