Abstract: Credit risk is easily contagious in manufacturing industry where the large number of enterprises and their frequent interactions and transactions with outside enterprises lead to a complex relationship. Based on the existing researches, this paper uses knowledge graph as a research tool to explore the credit risk contagion in manufacturing industry from a new perspective. Firstly, this paper constructs the required equity relationship knowledge graph; then, the credit risk contagion path is analyzed based on the constructed knowledge graph, and different risk contagion models are established for the obtained direct and indirect credit risk contagion paths; finally, through Monte Carlo simulation experiments, we find that in the case of direct shareholding, the contagion intensity of credit risk is not only related to the shareholding ratio, but also increases with the increase of the asset liability ratio of normal enterprises, enterprises/normal enterprises’ asset scale ratio and the correlation coefficient of enterprise asset value. Under indirect shareholding, the contagion intensity of credit risk of target enterprises increases with the increase of asset scale of intermediate enterprises, asset liability ratio of intermediate enterprises, shareholding ratio of intermediate enterprises to dishonest enterprises and asset liability ratio of target enterprises. However, it is less affected by asset scale of dishonest enterprises, shareholding ratio of target enterprises to intermediate enterprises and asset value correlation coefficient, and there is no obvious correlation.

Key words: contagion of credit risk, equity knowledge graph, propagation path