Abstract: Drawing upon a dual-channel supply chain system composed of a manufacturer and a retailer, and taking account of the fact that crisis event may happen at any time and its trust-impairing outcome may affect chain members’ decision-making, this paper constructs a differential game model of two-channel supply chain based on stochastic product trust crisis prediction. Based on Bellman continuous dynamic programming theory, the optimal strategies and profits of members are obtained under the conditions of non-cooperative, cost-sharing contract and cooperative cooperation, respectively. It is found that the random outbreak of product trust crisis will change the time preference of enterprises, resulting in them paying more attention to current profits and losing patience for future profits. Only when the marginal profit of the traditional channel (e-commerce channel) is high, can the manufacturer be encouraged to invest more in brand building by increasing the market share of the traditional channel (e-commerce channel). The cost subsidy rate set by the manufacturer is affected by the profit environment before and after the crisis, and only under certain conditions, can the cost-sharing contract realize the Pareto improvement of the profits of supply chain members, but if trust crisis occurs too frequently, such improvement will decline.

Key words: crisis forecast, trust, dual-channel supply chain, differential game