Abstract: Based onthe data of US anti-dumping against China from World Bank Global Anti-dumping Database, this paper uses the data from WIOD to calculate China-US value-added trade at the industrial level from 1995 to 2011 and applies logit and negative binary model to examine the effect of value-added trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading on anti-dumping cases. The main results are as follows:(1) The value-added trade surplus has a positive correlation with the probability and number of US anti-dumping initial investi- gations and final determinations against China; while the upgrading of China's industrial value chain has a negative correlation with the probability and number of US anti-dumping initial investigations and final determinations against China; (2) Compared with the value- added trade surplus, the traditional overall trade surplus is overestimated by 30%-45%, which in turn increases the probability of US an- ti-dumping initial investigation against China by 60%; (3) the combined effect of value-added trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading on US anti-dumping initial investigation against China is larger than that on final determination; (4) if considering value-add- ed trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading simultaneously, the combined effect on probability of US anti-dumping initial inves- tigation against China will be larger than when only value-added trade surplus is considered; but the combined effect on the number of US anti-dumping initial investigations and final determinations against China will be smaller than when only value-added trade surplus is con- sidered.

Key words: added value trade surplus, industrial value chain upgrading, anti-dumping, China-US