Abstract: Given the underdevelopment of the hog futures market and the largest population of medium-sized farmers in China, hog price index insurance can be a constructive attempt to suppress the swine cycle by applying insurance methods. Based on an empirical analysis of hog supply and demand, this paper uses cobweb theory and ARMA model to predict the cycle of hog price and evaluates the effect of the index insurance on the cycle. The results show that the model fits well with the swine cycle, with the large cycle being about 4-6 years and the small cycle being about 5 to 14 months. Under the research framework of this paper, the hog price index insurance shows a significant inhibitory effect on the swine cycle, and within a reasonable range, the higher the pig-maize ratio is, the better the inhibition effect will be. The predictions of the swine cycle also indicate convergent cobweb characteristics, and the further the hog price deviates from equilibrium price, the more effective the hog price index insurance will be in inhibiting hog price fluctuations.

Key words: hog price index insurance, swine cycle, Cobweb theory, ARMA model