A Risk Assessment and Early Warning Method for Emerging Industries from the Perspective of “Distance” and “peed”——-A Case Study in Spacecraft Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

Abstract: Emerging industries develop with uncertainty and complexity. Risks exist throughout their growth history. Given the risk of no standard reference throughout the developmet of emerging industries, a novel risk assessment model based on vertical projection distance with nearly ideal standard reference value is established; Considering the velocity inertial of emerging industry growing and its exposures change, a new risk early-warning model in line with speed variation characteristic is proposed. Empirical study on risk assessment and early-warning of Chinese spacecraft manufacturing industry in 2006-2014 show that four types of risk in spacecraft manufacturing industry display a multi-stage and variant evolution state, and comprehensive risks evolution is in disorder. Besides, in the future development of spacecraft manufacturing industry, the growth risk is the most serious of the four risks, and is the emphasis of risk early-warning; technical risk and environmental risk are weaker, but still need to be monitored; and market risk has no warning signals, meaning that the market outlook remains bright.

Key words: emerging industries, vertical projection distance, speed variation characteristic, risk assessment and early warning

Yang Zaoli, Qi Meng, Huang Lucheng, Tang Zhongjun. A Risk Assessment and Early Warning Method for Emerging Industries from the Perspective of “Distance” and “peed”——-A Case Study in Spacecraft Manufacturing Industry[J]. Management Review, 2021, 33(7): 43-53.

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