Abstract: This paper introduces consumer confidence index into MIDAS, and investigates the influence of consumer confidence index on China's macroeconomic fluctuations under the new economic normal. Based on the monthly consumer confidence index, the export, the total retail sales volume of social consumers and the fixed asset investment, this paper predicts the quarterly GDP growth rate and reaches the following three conclusions. Firstly, according to the MIDAS that includes consumer confidence index, the prediction accuracy tends to be higher and the mean square residual ratio tends to be lower. Secondly, MIDAS with more variable is less volatile when consumer confidence index is included, so it can provide a more accurate reference range. Thirdly, compared with other variables, macroeconomy is more sensitive to the change of consumer confidence index.

Key words: consumer confidence, MIDAS model, the real GDP growth rate, prediction