Abstract: In scientific communication, the public's understanding of scientific information may deviate from the expectation of the science agency who wants to disseminate scientific knowledge, methods, or results. "Science communication risk" is defined as the probability that this deviation occurs. The manuscript of scientific dissemination is the core element that may pose a risk. And the manuscript writing process is divided into three parts:composing an initial manuscript, editing the manuscript, and reviewing the manuscript. Then this paper identifies the risk factors of each part, including the sensitivity, specificity, scientific controversy of the original scientific materials, and the scientific literacy and professionalism of the authors, editors and reviewers. Based on expert knowledge and Sigmoid function, this paper investigates the quantitative relationship between the risk level of the writing process and the risk factors of each part. At last, a numerical example is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the methods.

Key words: scientific communication, risk assessment, writing process, Sigmoid function